In December 2016, the Federal Reserve raised its Fed funds target interest rate for only the second time in over 10 years, the first time being in December 2015. Now a possible Fed rate hike this week (March 14/15) is currently priced in by traders as a virtual certainty, via the CME Group FedWatch tool. This is a big perception change from just three weeks ago when it was less than 25% on an increase. And the Fed plans more rate hikes later in 2017, 2018 and likely into 2019, two to four total increases each year. Should you be concerned that interest rates (TLT) look to have bottomed after a long stagnant period at historically low levels?...
The news, even the ‘fake news’ and ‘alternative news’ has been reduced to the bottom of the Maslow pyramid, personalizing things while dismantling the small amount of journalistic integrity that existed. The only next lower step is name calling “you are stupid-head, poopy face” or throwing food. Liberals are angry that Trump won, Trump supporters are angry that liberals are so angry, blacks are angry because one of their own is out; women are angry because a “Man” is President, what’s next? When will protests and holidays be labelled as big “Pity Parties” where protesters...
Core Asian markets performed well today on what has potential to be an extremely volatile week. The Nikkei bounced from early weakness but was more playing off-set from currency moves. The mood did not start so well for Japan after January Machinery Orders came in way below estimate (-3.2% against forecasts of +0.5%). This obviously hit morning sentiment, but was almost forgotten by close of business and with higher prices. Shanghai and Hang Seng both closed strong. The announcement by HSBC certainly helped momentum with its shares closing +2.5% higher on the day. In India, Modi elections were a strong success which propelled both the INR and...
Looking at the bull market advance since 2009, we can see at least two options for counting. The options are that wave 3 ended in May’15 (blue) or wave 3 is ongoing (green). The late 2015 decline certainly looks like a potential wave 4 except that the high earlier in May that year came with a negative divergence in RSI. Third waves usually have a strong RSI reading (like now). If SPX is currently in wave v of 3 (green), then wave v is expected to be 100% or 161.8% of wave 1 (2009-10). As 100% has already been exceeded, 161.8% at 2,700 is the next target. However, if SPX is in wave 5 from the 2009 low (blue), it is expected to be 61.8% of t...
Valeant shares plunged after the close after CNBC’s David Faber first reported that Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman had liquidated his entire stake, and has effectively resigned from the board, saying he won’t stand for re-election. According to Bloomberg, Pershing Square is offering 27.23 million shares via Jefferies, at a price of $11.10-$11.40. Quoted by Reuters, Ackman had the following brief statement on what may have been his worst ever investment: “It was time to get out of the position, investment required disproportionately large amount of time and resources.” The stock plunged as much as 10% on the news....
Two out of the four market indices had inside trading days today. An inside day is when the current day’s trading range is literally inside the prior day’s trading range. Imagine inside days like when investors look inside a window and can only see a portion of the house. From that viewpoint, they pause and try to decide if they should enter the house or turn and run for the hills. In the S&P 500, Friday’s trading range made a high price of 238.02 and a low price of 236.59. Today’s high and low was 237.86 and 237.24. Not only did the range stay well within Friday’s range, the range itself was less than ½ of what SPY trades ordi...
The stock market is rising for a long time. As sentiment becomes unanimously bullish, smart investors realize that is the most reliable sign that the end of the long-term bull market is nearing. We are not bearish yet, but we realize that this long-term bull market will turn into a stock bear market at a certain point. Last week, our research team explained which 3 leading indicators to watch for a trend reversal, which, again, could take several months before it unfolds. Timing a trend reversal is impossible to predict. That’s why InvestingHaven recommends to look at leading indicators, primarily the transportation index as well as ...
With most the announcements coming out during the session on Tuesday involving either CPI or PPI numbers around the world, it seems as if it will be a day that is highly focused on stock indices as these numbers represent industrial strength or weakness. DAX With the German economic sentiment numbers coming out during the day, the DAX of course will be in focus. It looks as if every time this market pulls back, call buyers are interested in there seems to be a significant amount of support near the €11,900 level. Given enough time, it looks as if the call buyers will get their way. CAC French markets continue to flirt with the €5000 level...
Sprott Offer For Central Fund of Canada Press Release dated March 8 Sprott Asset Management LP (“Sprott”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Sprott Inc. (TSX:SII), today announced that it has filed an application (the “Application”) with the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta (the “Court”) to formally commence proceedings which, if successful, would result in the Class A shareholders of Central Fund of Canada Limited (“CFCL”) (NYSEMKT:CEF) (TSX:CEF.A), effectively, exchanging their Class A shares for trust units of a newly-formed Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (the “New Sprott Trust”) on a net asset value (“NAV”) ...