This week we have the IPO of Canada Goose (NYSE:GOOS). If you live in NYC or Boston you can’t help but notice that everyone seems to be wearing these parkas. How does a company that’s been around since 1957 suddenly make such an impression? Here are a few facts to know about the company and the deal that we pulled out of the GOOS IPO roadshow transcript: Until recently GOOS was a private-label maker of down-filled outerwear for other brands. The third generation CEO came in and decided to capitalize on the “authenticity” of the company and create their own consumer brand. They would be the “Land Rover of clothing...
Markets have finally shifted (at least a little bit of) their attention away from President Trump, with tomorrow’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting taking center stage. We’ve beaten the heck out of the dead horse explaining that traders have already completely priced in a rate hike from the venerable central bank (see “What the buck is up with the dollar this year?” and “Two signs stock market investors are preparing for (much?) higher interest rates” for just the two most recent examples). From a trading perspective, this means that the Federal Reserve’s (assumed) dec...
<< Read More: The Biggest Myths In Investing, Part 1 – The “Investing” Myth << Read More: The Biggest Myths in Investing, Part 2 – The Stock Market Is Where You Get Rich << Read More: The Biggest Myths In Investing, Part 3 – You Need To Beat The Market << Read More: The Biggest Myths in Investing, Part 4 – Indexing is Average << Read More: The Biggest Myths in Investing, Part 5 – Bonds Lose Value if Rates Rise << Read More: The Biggest Myths In Investing, Part 6 – Gold Is A Good Portfolio Hedge << Read More: The Biggest Myths In Investing, Part 7 – Fees Are A Small Price T...
A number of factors in the U.S. stock market are at historical extremes. We like to look for what we call “well known facts” in the marketplace, also thought of as areas of extreme optimism and pessimism. In this way, we can avoid euphoric situations and/or buy into abnormal bargains on solid long-duration companies which fit our eight criteria for common stock selection. A “well known fact” is a body of economic information which is not only known to almost every market participant, but appears to have been acted upon with almost every dollar at their disposal. It is, in effect, a very crowded trade—usually capped with borrowed mon...
There are warnings in the airwaves about a collapse of the Stock Market on March 15—or any time in the future. What to do then? There is a flip side to the set of considerations that I advanced a short time ago around the fact that there is almost no real wealth at all behind the three trillion of zeros accumulated in the Stock Market since the last election. The flip side, the positive side, is this: No real wealth will be destroyed, if the Stock Market crashes. And the issue is not if, but when the Stock Market crashes. When the stock market crashes is a question of great interest to individual players. Those who cash in in time will go h...
After Janet Yellen first hiked rates in late 2015, the precious metals market rallied in a big way in the first half of 2016. In late 2016 the Fed hiked again, but the metals market rally in 2017 has been more subdued. Why? For the main answer to that question: The bottom line is that the gold price has tremendous correlation to the price action of the dollar versus the yen. In 2016, the dollar collapsed against the yen. In 2017, the dollar has declined against the yen again, but only moderately. Hence, the rally in gold and gold stocks has been less exciting than it was in 2016. That’s a shorter term look at the dollar versus ...
My List of bearish stocks to watch this week Yesterday it was 77 bullish stocks, and this time around it is 77 bearish stocks to watch. Coincidence? Yup. Wasn’t trying for that though it is kind of cool for reasons unknown to me. We’ve got a market that is gradually weakening right now, and has lacked any kind of desire to push higher since the rally on the first of the month. Either this market is finally giving up on the Trump Rally, or we are really close to another pop higher. If history is any indication, the latter is more likly than not. On the other hand, all things have to end at some point. Am I confusing you yet? Th...
The Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates in March. They basically laid down the message. Calling them “thick hints” would be an understatement. The strong NFP left no room for doubts.And now, is it already priced in? Can we expect a massive “sell the fact” reaction? There are many moving parts that will determine the next move of the US dollar. Here is a preview for the Fed decision on March 15th at 18:00 GMT. We begin with some background, the data facing the Fed and three scenarios. From wait and see to a compelling case The Fed raised rates only twice since the financial crisis: in December 2015 and December 2016. ...
More than a few (hundred) commentators have taken a stab at explaining why volatility has remained glued to the flatline over the past several months and to be sure, I’ve flagged suppressed vol as a warning sign that markets are too complacent on more than a few occasions in these very pages. For those who might have missed it last month, consider that January was the 3rd calmest month to start the year in history as measured by average VIX level and the 5th calmest opening 31-day salvo on record in terms of realized vol. Via Goldman: S&P 500 realized volatility was 6.5 over the calendar month of January, the 5th lowest January level b...
2016 was a good year for Energy Stocks as Oil & GAS price rose significantly helping the Energy sector to recover from the drop that started since 2014. However since the recent peak early this year, Oil price stabilized in a tight range and failed to move higher before the recent 9% drop last week in both Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate. Related stocks that established a bullish reversal last year extended their correction lower but Elliott Wave technical analysis is pointing to an important areas where a bounce higher can be seen in the near term. The coming move will be also supported by an expected bounce in Crude Oil...