US investors are buying gold bullion once again. Surprisingly, it is happening ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement day. Yesterday and today as many as 314.2 thousand ounces of gold were added to GLD vaults: Another gold bullion vehicle, iShares Gold Trust (IAU) added 9.6 thousand ounces of gold. Interestingly, today the share prices of precious metals mining companies went down strongly: GDX lost 3% GDXJ lost 6% It looks like the precious metals stock market is mini-crashing but American investors are accumulating physical gold. Who is right? Let us wait until tomorrow…...
What a difference a quarter makes! As I said one-quarter ago: Are you ready to earn 6%/year until 9/30/2026? The data from the Federal Reserve comes out with some delay. If I had it instantly at the close of the third quarter, I would have said 6.37% — but with the run-up in prices since then, the returns decline to 6.01%/year. So now I say: Are you ready to earn 5%/year until 12/31/2026? The data from the Federal Reserve comes out with some delay. If I had it instantly at the close of the fourth quarter, I would have said 5.57% — but with the run-up in prices since then, the returns decline to 5.02%/year. A one percent drop is...
The stock market has once again entered a period of consolidation as investors wait for the results of the most important legislative decision of the year. The fight to repeal and replace Obamacare has taken the spotlight as Congress debates the passage of legislation that would eliminate its most burdensome aspects for businesses and individual taxpayers alike. Internally, the NYSE broad market has been unsettled for the last several days after a period of relative calm in the months following the U.S. presidential election. There have been more than 40 stocks making new 52-week lows on a daily basis since last week. This makes almost two we...
The bullish percents are headed lower which means the broad market is experiencing some selling pressure. If this indicator keeps going lower then at some point the general market indexes will head lower as well. However, the SPX hasn’t even broken below the 20-day yet. The market is a bit oversold based on the PMO indexes, so when we finally get the rate hike who knows what will happen. Tuesday – Rates What is this spreadsheet telling us? Right off the bat, I see a number of blue rectangles which means that the entire group of fixed income and high yield ETFs is gaining strength against the universe of ETFs. This is what I would ...
Today, news came out that New Mexico, our home state, has the highest unemployment record in the country. With a rate of 4.7% nationally, NM’s rate stands at 6.7% up from 6.5% a year ago. Here are the top 3 reasons why: Volatility in the oil and gas sector, which has led to layoffs Declines in health care and hospitality jobs due to uncertainty of the future of the Affordable Health Care Act NM Governor, Susana Martinez, vetoes agricultural bills related to hemp production Reason number one impacts more than New Mexico. Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Texas and Wyoming are just a few of the states that r...
This week is going to be centered around the Fed’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday. This rate hike will be met with much less angst than the previous two as investors become accustomed to the Fed raising rates at a faster clip than 25 basis points per year. The decision on rates will be the least important part of the announcement because the market is so certain it will raise rates. The CME Group Fedwatch tool has the Fed at a 95.2% chance of raising rates. The key will be the Fed’s guidance; this will either be a hawkish hike or dovish hike. This hike will different from the first two as it will likely be more hawkish consideri...
Audio Length: 00:09:00 Inflation is back, thanks to the past few years’ exuberant borrowing and currency creation. Meanwhile, populist politicians are gaining traction in Europe, threatening both the European Union and the eurozone. The world has never seen this combination of excessive financial leverage and widespread political upheaval, so expect the next few years to be bad for most “risk-on” financial assets and great for safe havens like gold and silver....
Common wisdom suggests America’s most famous investor has long avoided high-tech companies. Instead, Warren Buffett has stuck to what he knows – everything from insurance and railroads to soda and razors. “I know about as much about semiconductors or integrated circuits as I do of the mating habits of the [beetle],” Buffett once wrote. “We will not go into businesses where technology which is way over my head is crucial to the investment decision.” He felt technology lacked margin of safety, and many “Buffett-heads” followed his lead – and they all missed out on tech stocks’ leaps in value over the last eight years or so...