After numerous warnings from Goldman strategist David Kostin that stocks are expensive, most recently over the weekend when he wrote that”Goldman strategist on their expectation of upside to 2017 EPS forecasts as they face the reality that the accretive impact from tax reform will not occur until 2018″ and that “revisions to consensus EPS forecasts during the past few months have been negative for both 2017 and 2018” Goldman officially downgraded equities. Warning that as a result of rising drawdown risk, a function of the “interplay of the cycle and rates”, with “growth momentum nearing its peak a...
The common currency, euro is likely to experience some volatility starting today, March 15 as the Dutch voters head to polls. Unlike most of the general election results which are announced almost within a day or two, the Dutch election results will be announced on March 21, although preliminary results are expected overnight or by early Thursday morning, European time. Europe and the world at large will be watching the Dutch elections with unusual interest as the election outcome could potentially provide a glimpse into what to expect from the upcoming elections from France and later Germany. After the surprise Brexit vote in June last year ...
The Federal Reserve convenes amid a snowstorm in Washington. Will we also see a snowstorm in markets? The team at Nomura sees a positive outcome and details the keys for the shake in markets: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: The USD has gained back some momentum ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. In that regard, Nomura Research notes that the market has already priced the likelihood of a March rate hike well, but an earlier hike may improve market confidence in the Fed and its dots. “Into coming FOMC meetings, the risk of the dots being downgraded is clearly lower, which should be USD positive,” Nomura argues....
Global stocks continued to slip on Wednesday morning as investors took profits before the Federal Reserve’s announcement later today which is expected to reveal a second interest rate hike in the past three months. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 0.3 percent on Wednesday after posting notable gains on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was also down 0.3 percent while South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.2 percent. The dollar index remained within range on Wednesday, trading slightly higher at 101.70 .DXY, as traders stood to the side in advance of the Fed decision. An interest rate hike on Wednesday would ...
On the 4h chart of NZD/USD we can see a nice bearish breakdown to be in progress, with price now specifically trading in the middle of red wave three. As we know, wave 3 is known as the strongest and the steepest wave, which means in our case even more weakness may follow. Regarding the intra-day view we see price now trading in sub-wave four, a temporary correction that may see limited upside around the 0.7002 region. NZD/USD, 4H...
EUR/USD 4 hour The Federal Reserve (Fed) will release its interest rate decision on Wednesday evening 6pm GMT. The major question is whether the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will keep the rate at 0.75% or raise it to 1.0% which would typically lead to USD strength. The FOMC also offer its economic projections and statement. Price action could see increased volatility during and after the announcement (see volatility at the bottom of this page). The bearish price action of the EUR/USD after price reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 2 (purple) could indicate that the wave 2 has been completed. A break below support...
Video Length – 00:01:17 USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally on Tuesday, breaking above the 115 level. The fact that we found quite a bit of resistance above there and turned around is not much of a surprise me, because the 115 level has been so resistive. Having said that, the FOMC Statement coming out today could have massive ramifications in this pair. I still believe the pullbacks are buying opportunities, and if we can break above the 115 handle, and more importantly the shooting star from the Friday session, the market should then go higher and start aiming for the 118.50 level which has been my longer-term target. I ...
During the session on Wednesday, we get a handful of announcements that could move the marketplace, including Claimant Count Change out of the United Kingdom, PPI out of Switzerland and CPI out of France, as well as many other mid-level announcements. WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market is in a bit of a freefall now, and because of this it looks as if we are going to continue to see put buyers jump into this market. DAX The German index initially fell during the day but found enough support on Tuesday at the €11,900 level to turn things around and form a bit of a hammer. Given enough time, looks as if the call buyers will return every ti...
Podcast: Play in new window | Play in new window (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB) DOW – 44 = 20,837 SPX – 8 = 2365 NAS – 18 = 5865 RUT – 7 = 1362 10Y – .02 = 2.59% OIL – .45 – 47.95 GOLD – 5.10 1199.60 The Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow to determine monetary policy. Fed policymakers have clearly indicated they will raise the overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent and 1.00 percent, and may signal there could be even more than the three rate rises they have forecast for this year. While the Fed meeting is the focus for markets this week, in...
In today’s video we will do some technical analysis of the stock charts of Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX). In the short term the technicals are to the upside with the catalyst being that Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital having sold his shares of Valeant. Long Term the charts are very bearish and will be cut by another 50% in the coming year or two Video Length – 00:07:49...