Of all virtues to which we must ultimately aspire, forgiveness demands the most of our souls. In our naivety, we may fancy ourselves man or woman enough to absolve those who have wronged us. But far too often, we find our pool of grace has run dry. So deeply burdened are we by our emotions that grace to us is lost. How many of us have the strength of resolve to let bygones be gone for good? Those of the cloth recognize the damage self-inflicted scars sear into our souls as they seek to guide us through life’s most difficult journeys. They pray for our deliverance from a painful inner turmoil and with it the peace only forgiveness can co...
Inflation and retail sales data for February leave the stage open for the Fed. Most data comes out as expected: core CPI is 2.2% y/y as predicted. Retail sales are up 0.1%, core sales are up 0.2% and the retail control group is up 0.1% a small miss. There are upwards revisions to retail sales numbers. The US dollar is mildly stronger. Top tier US figures are released hours ahead of the all-important Fed rate hike: retail sales and inflation. The most critical points are Core CPI y/y which is expected to slide from 2.3% to 2.2% and the control group of retail sales, which is projected to advance by 0.2% after 0.4% beforehand. The US dollar w...
“Change is good, but dollars are better.” -Unknown Recently I penned an article highlighting the country’s fiscal condition. This year’s Ides of March (15th) acquires special significance with the expiration of the Obama-Boehner debt ceiling deal, the Fed meeting, and an election in the Netherlands. Unless there’s an increase in the debt ceiling, the Treasury will be limited to servicing the government’s expenses to their operating cash balance. The Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Statement that tells the world how much cash they have on hand. On the first day of the 2017 fiscal year (10/3/16), they had $339 billio...
Crude oil is back on a supply side drive after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reports an oil supply drop, perhaps signaling that last week’s massive crude oil supply increase was a fluke! This comes after mixed data from OPEC surrounding Saudi Arabian production numbers where the Saudis reported a production increase, perhaps to send a message even though secondary sources reported that their production fell. Source: Al Jazeera The conflict broke oil hard as some traders thought that this was the beginning of another production war. Today the International Energy Agency (IEA) is weighing in, predicting that demand growth for oil wil...
..Analysts at RBC Capital Markets, today reiterated their Outperform rating on Apple Inc. (AAPL) while boosting their price target from $140 to $155. That new target suggests an 11.5% upside to the stock’s Tuesday closing price of $138.99. From StockNews.com In a note to clients, RBC said it has seen increased focus on AAPL’s services business during [the] last 12 months or so [and]…that the company…intended to double the business in the next four years. In fact, Apple projects a $48 to $50 billion revenue target for services by fiscal 2020. While RBC believes the growth of its installed hardware base and replacement cycles r...
Yesterday was a fun day for crude. As documented here extensively, oil initially plunged on reports that Riyadh raised output to over 10m b/d in February, reversing 1/3 of the cuts made in January. Oil promptly plunged. Apparently surprised at just how closely the market still listens to the kingdom, Riyadh pulled a “just kidding,” and tried to play the whole thing off. Here was the result: As if that wasn’t enough “crude” excitement for one day, we got the latest API numbers which showed a surprise inventory draw. To wit: Crude inventories fell 531k bbl last week Cushing +2.06m Gasoline -3.88m Distillates -4.07m So that’s...
While it has been a quiet session so far, today’s events have the potential to substantially boost market volatility. Here, courtesy of JPM’s Adam Crisafulli, is the “bottom line for domestic equities” and what to watch for among today’s information barrage. Market update – it was another relatively quiet night of news. US futures and Eurozone stocks have a small bid ahead of a busy morning of domestic eco data and the FOMC decision. Oil prices are rebounding thanks to supportive API data and pos. comments from Saudi Arabia and Goldman. Opposition to Ryan’s HC bill remains intense w/conservatives in the Hous...
The drama continued for Valeant (VRX) last week after it sought to restructure $3 billion in debt, and remove or modify certain of its interest maintenance covenants. The company got the refinancing done and the covenant relief it requested: Valeant announced today that it has priced its previously announced offering of $1.25 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.50% senior secure notes due 2022 (the “2022 Notes”) and $2 billion aggregate principal amount of 7.00% senior secured notes due 2024 (the “2024 Notes” and, together with the 2022 Notes, the “Notes”). The aggregate size of the offering reflects an...
The European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, has approved AT&T’s (T) pending acquisition of Time Warner (TWX). “We appreciate the skilled work of the European Commission’s team for their timely effort to analyze and clear the AT&T-Time Warner merger,” said Bob Quinn, senior executive vice president, AT&T External and Legislative Affairs. “This is an important approval from a highly respected authority. The global clearance process is on track, and we look forward to creating a company that will lead the next wave of innovation in the media and telecommunications industries.”...
EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair fell slightly during the day on Tuesday as we continue to see a bit of a roll over in this pair. With the FOMC Statement coming out today, it’s likely that we will continue to see negative pressure. This is because I believe that the Federal Reserve is going to sound rather hawkish, and it should push this market down to the 1.05 handle. Alternately, if we break above the top of the shooting star from the Monday session that is bullish, but there is a significant amount of resistance near the 1.0750 level. I believe that it is going to be choppy regardless, but longer-term I still believe in the downtrend. GBP/USD T...