Well, it’s probably a stretch to say the next installment in the Fed’s tightening cycle is finally here. After all, as Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow, a former FX trader and fund manager, notes, it was only a couple of weeks ago that this foregone conclusion wasn’t even on the market’s radar. The abrupt about-face was jarring and out of character in its timing, but I like the lack of overbearing hand-holding. It’s about time that forward guidance doesn’t have to mean as far as the eye can see. Is the Fed behind the curve? Are they letting the economy run hot? Not to any dangerous extent. But that doesn’t mean it’s not...
Billionaire investor, Bill Ackman, has finally decided to pull out his investment in Canada-based drugmaker Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (VRX – Free Report) . Hedge fund Pershing Square made the announcement earlier this week and said that while Ackman and Steve Fraidin will remain on the Valeant board until the upcoming annual meeting, they will not seek re-election. Valeant’s shares were down 10.1% on the abrupt exit of the activist investor who had been a pretty vocal supporter of Valeant and was working on stabilizing and rebuilding the beleaguered company. Valeant is one of the worst hit companies by the drug p...
After Donald Trump’s presidential election victory on November 8, 2016, U.S. small-cap stocks enjoyed a significant upward move. We believe further interest is justified in the following scenarios: If there is corporate tax reform, we’ve found that small-cap stocks do in fact tend to pay higher effective tax rates than large-cap stocks. If the statutory rate for U.S. corporations is lowered from the current 35% to 25% (or lower), the biggest incremental impact could hit profitable, small-cap companies. If U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy does lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, small-cap stocks, which garner most of their revenues from wi...
Shares of Finisar (FNSR) are on the rise after Jefferies analyst James Kisner upgraded the stock to Buy, citing “compelling valuation” and optionality around accretive M&A. As he remains bullish on the entire telecom equipment/wireless sector, the analyst noted that Finisar’s recent soft results and guidance stemmed from technical product issues that should be resolved shortly. VALUATION, CHINA RECOVERY: In a research note this morning, Jefferies’ Kisner upgraded Finisar to Buy from Hold given a “compelling” valuation and optionality around accretive M&A. The analyst told investors that the shares...
According to sources familiar with the matter, S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) is attempting to buy fellow stock index provider MSCI Inc. (NYSE:MSCI) for $11 billion, but its initial offer price has been declined. Written by StockNews.com The Evening Standard has some details on the big M&A attempt: City sources said MSCI, a Morgan Stanley spin-out which compiles some of the biggest market indices used by fund managers, has spurned a $120-per-share approach from the Wall Street giant behind the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices. Apparently, MSCI is willing to deal, but only at a higher price: MSCI and its major shareholders are understood...
Twitter to generate $0.06 billion less in mobile advertising revenue for 2017 It’s all about the numbers with Twitter, and they simply don’t add up. The recent performance of the stock has resulted in a discouraging trend forming. From February 2017, the price of Twitter moved sharply lower than both its 50-day moving average of $16.56 and it’s 200-day moving average of $17.74. This grim reality is a portend of what’s to come for this once-thriving tech stock. Twitter is trading at $15.31 per share, up a paltry 0.62% on the day, or $0.10. It is somewhat surprising that the actual earnings have bested estimates from Q1 through Q4 2016,...
4 Hour SPX Index Elliott wave chart 03.15.2017 Elliott Wave sequence analysis of SPX Index from 11/4/2016 low (2083.79) suggests the Index is rallying in a 5 swing bullish sequence and has not reached the 100% – 123.6% target area of 2453 – 2500. The structure of the rally is unfolding as a double three WXY Elliott wave structure or often called a 7 swing structure. Up from 2083.79, Intermediate wave (W) or third swing ended at 2277.53 and Intermediate wave (X) or fourth swing ended at 2257.02. The Index has since broken above 2277.53 and extended higher. SPX is currently in the 61.8 – 76.4 extension area (2378.75 – 2407.29) of th...
Apart from our own Fed preview we also provide outlooks from others. Here are two hawkish opinions: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: USD Into FOMC: Looking For Pullbacks As Buying Opportunities – TD TD Research notes that the core of attention at today’s FOMC policy decision will center on the tone, dots, and forecasts. In that regard, TD doubts that the Fed will want to send such a strong signal, so it is more likely to get a few shifts in this year’s dots and a risk of some backup in the medians for 2018/2019. This outcome, according to TD, supports a knee-jerk bounce in the USD but doubt there would be limited follow-throug...
Retail sales were up according to US Census headline data. Our analysis paints a softer picture of retail sales. Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales Things to consider when viewing this data: it is not inflation adjusted – and inflation in this sector is now running around 2 %. the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data significantly declined. there was growth in retail sales employment this month our analysis says this month was much worse than last month, and the rolling averages declined. The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment are now correlating. Backward data...
The best small cap sector is industrial goods. The top small cap industry is semi ICs. The average small cap score is 53.75 and over the past four weeks, the average score has been 55.84. The average small cap in our coverage is trading -23.63% below its 52 week high, 2.32% above its 200 dma, and has 7.16 days to cover held short. Industrial goods, technology, and consumer goods score best. Services, financials, and healthcare score in line with the average universe score. Basics and utilities score below average. The following stocks score best and worst in small cap this week. The top scoring small cap industry is semi ICs (DIOD). Resorts...