On yet another positive day for the stock market in the face of major macro headwinds from French elections to war with North Korea and potential for compromise not to be reached on a budget deal, there are two separate issues that will likely tear down the bull market run, a Moody’s report noted. One of those events would have bond yields rising slightly above levels seen this past March 6, 2017. Stocks overvalued based on several historical revenue standards “Stocks are not cheap,” Moody’s Chief Economist John Lonski, wrote in the firm’s weekly market analysis. Noting that “US equities remain untenably overvalued,” Lonski ...
The United States does not currently issue bonds with maturities longer than 30 years, but the idea of super long-dated national debt is back in the air. Long-dated, as in bonds due in 100 years. One reason 100-year bonds are kind of neat is that nobody alive right now ever needs to worry about paying the principal back. Setting snark to the side (for just a moment), Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, in an interview in December, appeared open to the idea of 50-year or 100-year bonds, floated by financial newspaper Barron’s back in November 2016. Barron’s followed up in February with the report that Mnuchin asked his staff at the Tr...
Talking Points GBPAUD pullback off key resistance to be viewed as opportunity Updated targets & invalidation levels GBPAUD Daily Technical Outlook: GBPAUD turned from a BIG resistance zone last week at 1.6688-1.6721– this region is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the December decline, the August swing low and the 200-day moving average. The pair has been trading within the confines of a broader ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows with the pullback now testing confluence support just above the 1.65-handle where the 100-day moving average converges on the 50-slope line. Heading into the start of the wee...
As if you need more proof that inflation is finally starting to pick up, lumber prices rose to a 12-year high last week, supported mainly by expectations that steep duties will soon be levied on cheap softwood imports from Canada. Lumber futures rose to nearly $415 per thousand board feet last Monday, a level unseen since March 2005, soon after homeownership peaked here in the U.S. At issue is a mini-trade war between U.S. and Canadian loggers. For some time now, the American lumber industry has blamed its Canadian counterpart of unfairly dumping lumber in the U.S. that’s far below market value. Now, several factors are pushing timber price...
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) reports April 17, after the market closes. The online content streaming service kicks off earnings in about an hour. Currently the Estimize community is expecting EPS of $0.38, in-line with the Street which would result in YoY growth of 535%. EPS estimates have increased 107% since Netflix’s last quarterly report. Historically the company has beaten the Estimize consensus 83% of the time. Revenues are anticipated to come in at $2.645, only $4M higher than the sell-side estimate, indicating YoY growth of 35%. Netflix has only beaten the Estimize revenue consensus 36% of reported quarters. Historically NFLX stock moves u...
Written by StockNews.com Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) stock will rise significantly in the coming weeks, according to Aegis Capital, reiterating its Buy rating while boosting its price target on FB from $155 to $160. That new target suggests a 15% upside to the stock’s last closing price of $139.39. Facebook is hosting its annual developer conference Tuesday and Wednesday of this week in San Jose. Dubbed “F8,” the conference will likely focus on innovations with the camera and video, which should help increase engagement and monetization, messaging, Instagram and VR, noted Aegis. The next major catalyst for the stock will come in a few we...
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and stationary energy storage products. It operates primarily in the United States, China, Norway and internationally. Tesla Inc., formerly known as Tesla Motors Inc., is headquartered in Palo Alto, California. The company has long been a darling of those with an eye on the future as the founder–Elon Musk–has a variety of projects underway of interest to those looking to get in on the ground floor of disruptive technologies and business models. Tesla does re-usable private rockets. They have technology that may solve issues related to solar and wind pow...
April looks set to be the worst month since August 2015 (when China devalued and turmoil spread across the world) for global financial stress. As Bloomberg reports, rising geopolitical concerns are pushing a gauge of anxiety for global asset classes to this year’s high. The Global Financial Stress Index is a Bank of America Merrill Lynch calculated, cross market measure of risk, hedging demand and investor flows in the global financial system. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Financial Stress Index climbed to 0.24 last week, meeting the peak reached in February and rebounding from a low at the end of March. A positive rea...
It is normal and to be expected for bullish trends to experience pullbacks or retracements. Typically, a healthy trend will see countertrend moves that remain above the three major Fibonacci retracement levels shown below. As of April 17, the S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) post-election rally remains in the “normal pullback” zone. Is The Bigger Picture Showing Some Bearish Cracks? This week’s stock market video reviews the impact of the recent pullback on the longer-term outlook. The video also covers the emotional impact of portfolio drawdowns. A Bearish Reference Point The chart below shows the S&P 500’s 100, 200, and 300-day moving ...
United Continental Holdings (UAL) reports April 17 after the market closes. Key Takeaways: The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of $0.38 and $8.35 billion in revenue, with EPS 1 cent above Wall Street, and $13 billion behind the WS estimate in revenue. United’s two viral public relations incidents will not likely hurt financial prosperity for investors. Steadily rising fuel costs and higher labor compensation are risks to secure high margin flights. Airline earnings season officially kicked off with Delta reporting this past Wednesday with better than expected earnings growth. Estimize and Wall Street were in line ...