Podcast: Play in new window | Play in new window (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB) DOW + 183 = 20,636 SPX + 20 = 2349 NAS + 51 = 5856 RUT + 15 = 1361 10 Y + .02 = 2.25% OIL – .43 = 52.75 GOLD – 3.80 = 1285.00 The S&P 500 is coming off a three-day losing streak, having fallen more than 1% over that period. It has also dropped for two straight weeks, closing at its lowest level since February on Thursday. The Dow and the Nasdaq have also dropped over those periods. Also, geopolitical hotspots did not boil over during the holiday weekend, even though South Korean news agencies are reporting that 2 more US aircraft carriers are headed for ...
“You’ll never make that money back!” the pitchman breathlessly exclaimed. The guy on the radio was selling annuities and warning investors not to put their money in the risky “Wall Street casino.” He tried to scare listeners by telling them that if the market crashed, like it did in 1987, or if we have another nasty bear market like in 2000 or 2008, “it would take a lifetime to make that money back.” He couldn’t be more wrong. On October 19, 1987, or “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 22.6%. It was the biggest one-day drop in U.S. stock market history. But it didn’t exactly take a lifetime to rec...
On Friday, the Nikkei closed lower amid geopolitical tension across the globe. There wasn’t just one, but two incidents that came about. The Nikkei also dropped as the yen surged higher. Data from the U.S. sparked some hope that global growth is still doing well. The Nikkei dropped 0.49% to 18,335.63. Geopolitical Problems There were two geopolitical problems that really spooked the Nikkei. The first of which was the UUUUU U U UUU U U U U U U. It was believed that there were about 94 ISIS fighters that may have been killed by the blast. The reason for using the bomb was to destroy underground tunnels and weapons used by ISIS. The ...
China is the world’s largest net importer of crude oil, and in recent years, China’s crude oil imports have increasingly come from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As the EIA reports in a recent blog post, while OPEC countries still made up most (57%) of China’s 7.6 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil imports in 2016, crude oil from non-OPEC countries made up 65% of the growth in China’s imports between 2012 and 2016. Leading non-OPEC suppliers included Russia (14% of total imports), Oman (9%), and Brazil (5%). On an average annual basis, China’s crude oil imports increased by ...
SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 4/12/17 at 2344.93. Monitoring purposes Gold: Long GDX on 4/13/17 at 24.54. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. Last Thursday, the TRIN closed at 2.29 and the Ticks closed at -315 and that combination suggests a bottom will form the same days as the reading to as late as two days later which is Tomorrow (looks like last Thursday was the low). The pattern that appears to be forming is a Head and Shoulders bottom where the Head is the March 27 low and the Right Shoulder appears to have completed last Thursday. On March 1 a Buy Climax was recorded and most Buy Climaxes high are tested at some point. Th...
A worried tone at the open of the trading week proved fleeting as Wall Street returned online after the Easter holiday. Gold prices reversed from intraday gains as recovering sentiment weighed against Treasury bonds and bid up yields, boosting the US Dollar along the way. Not surprisingly, this undermined support for non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. Tellingly, financials led US shares upward. An index tracking the sector’s representation within the S&P 500 closely parallels the 2017 rate hike outlook implied in Fed Funds futures. This speaks to expectations of continued tightening even amid first-quarter slowdown fears,...
Debt Bubble As a clarification to a previous article, I showed a chart which had an elevated level of equity financing as a percentage of U.S. M&A. It’s worth emphasizing that while equity issuances have been funding M&A at a high level, net equity issuance is the lowest since 2007. As you can see from the chart below, right before the financial crisis, debt was issued to fund a massive amount of buybacks. History is repeating itself as the current corporate debt issuance is almost as high as 2007 and the current net equity issuance is almost as low as 2007. This chart shows the debt bubble in its glory. The chart below takes anothe...
With the break-out over the prior week’s high, we now have structures in gold and silver off the March lows which can be considered strongly impulsive. And, as I have noted many times in the past, if there is a reasonable bullish interpretation to be seen in the metals complex, I will certainly be adopting that as my primary perspective. However, while GLD and silver can be counted as just completing their 5 wave structures, I want to warn anyone who is going to attempt to trade downside that we are setting up in the heart of a 3rdwave. That being the case, there is potential for the market to continue to melt up in the heart of that 3rd...
United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL – Free Report) released its first quarter fiscal 2017 earnings results, posting diluted earnings of 41 cents per share and revenue of $8.4 billion. Currently, UAL is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), and is up 0.82% to $71.35 in trading shortly after its earnings report was released. Beat earnings estimates. The company posted diluted earnings of 41 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents per share. This number excludes 10 cents from non-recurring items. Net income came in at $129 million. Beat revenue estimates. The company saw revenue figures of $8.4 billion, topping our con...
Many analysts have been so excited that gold broke to new highs, above $1,262, in late February. I was excited as well, but for a different reason. I’d forecast that gold could bounce back just above the July 2016 highs of $1,373, to around $1,400 or $1,450. And ANY bounce, no matter how high it went, would be a good place to get rid of any gold you’re still holding. Get rid of it, you should because the precious metal is going down. All the way to $700 an ounce within a year or so, and ultimately likely down to $400 or $450. Right now, both gold and silver are getting pretty overbought, so it’s a perfect place to unload your final st...