GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD bearish bounce at resistance (brown) confirmed wave W (orange) and price has retraced back to the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of wave W vs X (orange). Price is moving between support (blue) and resistance (brown) and could be close to completing a chart triangle indicated by wave E (green). 1 hour The GBP/USD could extend the wave X (orange) with a new ABC (pink) zigzag that could take price back down to the support trend line (blue). Price would need to break below the bear flag to confirm the correction (orange lines). EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD is challenging the bullish support trend line (blue). A bounce at t...
…We don’t believe the March jobs report takes the Fed off its tightening path. We still see the central bank raising interest rates three to four times over the next year. Written by Rick Rieder (BlackRockBlog.com) The top-line March payroll number surprised to the downside, but last month’s jobs report overall was solid, reinforcing that the U.S. economy is reflating and growing at a nice clip. This year’s three-month, six-month and 12-month payroll gains moving averages of 178,000, 163,000, and 182,000, respectively, show the labor market is off to a remarkably strong start in 2017. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.5%, and...
Markets are back from the Easter holidays and it’s time to rumble. Or is it? The euro could get stuck ahead of the French elections. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: CitiFX Research argues that as French elections are looming, investors may be reluctant to take positions. “This is likely to see range trade in EUR in the days ahead, with some scope for downward drift,” Citi adds. On the GBP front, Citi notes that the key data release will be the UK retail sales on Friday where weak BRC numbers set up for further moderation in consumption on the official release. “GBP remains relatively sidelined in our view and we still rather...
Video length: 00:21:14 Regardless of the market you trade, chances are it has been severely affected by the wild ride in the US 10Yr. Treasury Yield in recent weeks. The positive correlation in the UST 10Yr Yield is rather significant whether you look at USD/JPY, Crude Oil, or major equity indices like the German Dax. The inverse correlation, meaning a move lower in the 10yr correlates to a move higher in the dependent asset, has recently hit a high mark in Gold. As you can imagine, the yield moves lower (as the price moves higher) much like USD/JPY when there is a rush for money into haven assets. What’s important to note is th...
Stock screeners allow investors to filter for nearly any quantitative metric. Dividend yields, price-to-earnings ratios, and payout ratios are easily found using the plethora of financial tools available today. But how do investors filter for qualitative metrics, like business quality? A great way to find high-quality businesses is by looking in the portfolios of famous investors with strong track records. One such investor is Bill Ackman, the founder and Chief Executive Officer of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management. Fortunately for individual investors, large funds like Pershing Square must disclose their holdings in a quart...
I suspect that Federal Reserve officials would prefer to not speak about inflation, nor ever again be asked about it. When oil prices first crashed at the end of 2014, they said it was a “transitory” phenomenon not worthy of much attention. Or if it was to be given some consideration, it was a benefit to consumers, another positive “tailwind” in an otherwise economy seemingly at the time full of them. Their view of the strengthening economy as indicated by the unemployment rate meant that whatever drag from WTI would promptly be corrected by the end of slack in the labor force. Ironically, it has been oil prices coming off the bottom ...
Mastercard Inc has Underperformed its Peers but Fundamentals are Strong 2017 is shaping up to be the year of rising interest rates and increasing profits for banks and credit card companies. But the recent performance of Mastercard Inc (MA) has underwhelmed to a degree. The stock has performed in a rather lacklustre way against its competitors in Visa Incorporated (V), Verizon Communications (VZ), Fidelity National Information Systems (FIS), et al. Currently, Mastercard’s dividend payout is 21.41% and its dividend yield is 0.74%. Compared to Mastercard’s peers, the average dividend payout is 42.04% and the dividend yield is 1.05%. For MA ...
The cash pile of equity mutual funds (MFs) has climbed to multi-year highs, amid sharp investor inflows since October. Steep volatility in the markets has made fund managers cautious, awaiting opportunities to deploy the cash. As per an article in The Business Standard, cash as a percentage of equity assets under management has increased 116 basis points, or by Rs 188 billion on a YoY basis. The benchmark indices have gained more than 10% during this period, while the rally in the broader market has been even sharper. But, the pronounced bullishness in the stock market could subside in the coming weeks if the fourth quarter results of comp...
My watch list stocks to trade Bulls finally found some relief. If you think that the bears have control of this market you are wrong. They never even had it in the first place. Put it this way, if the bulls rally more than 13 points on SPX, the market will be back in the green for the month of April. That doesn’t mean the month is optimal for traders, but it does mean that simply shorting stocks in this environment isn’t what works. If you were caught short on this market today, you lost most of your month’s profits. The better play so far has been to wait for the bounce and keep portfolio exposure to a minimum. That is ...
Gold and silver went up the dollar went down, +$33 and +$0.53 -64mg gold and -.05g silver. The prices of the metals in dollar terms are readily available, and the price of the dollar in terms of honest money can be easily calculated. The point of this Report is to look into the market to understand the fundamentals of supply and demand. This can’t necessarily tell you what the price will do tomorrow. However, it tells you where the price should be, if physical metal were to clear based on supply and demand. Of course, two factors make this very interesting. One is that the speculators use leverage, and they can move the price around. At ...