UK Prime Minister Theresa May called a special press conference at 10:15 GMT. This is totally unscheduled and according to rumors, she might call snap elections to parliament, taking advantage of Labour’s disarray. Various opinion polls put May’s Conservatives with over 40% support and Labour under 30%. However, she previously ruled out bringing forward the elections from 2020. Elections to increase the majority? Some have called for fresh elections in order to allow for a new parliament to discuss the details of Brexit. While nobody doubts the vote to desire of Brits to leave the EU, it is not clear what voters really want. Is it a...
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market initially tried to rally on Monday but rolled over slightly. I still think there’s plenty of support below, but it’s likely that we may have to pull back in order to find enough support to extend the longer-term moved to the upside. I think the $52 level as the first area where we will find buyers, and then perhaps the $51 level after that. A supportive candle should send this market looking towards the $55.50 level above, as that has been my longer-term target for some time and has previously offered resistance. Currently I’m not interested in selling this market, although I do recognize that the ...
Gold is probably immersed in a multi-decade bull market containing cyclical bull and bear markets. We can be sure that a cyclical bear market began in 2011, but did this bear market come to an end in December of 2015? In other words, did a new cyclical gold bull get underway in December-2015? I don’t know, but the point I want to make today is that the answer to this question is not as important as most gold-market enthusiasts think. During the first half of 2016 my view was that although a new cyclical gold bull market had probably begun, it was far from a certainty. The main reason I had some doubt was that gold’s true fundamentals* wer...
In what comes as welcome news to an economy in transition, China’s GDP has increased for a second consecutive quarter. The pickup in growth experienced during the first quarter of the year was largely attributable to an increase in industrial production, credit growth and a booming real estate sector. With consumption contributing more strongly toward growth, there are indications that China’s economic transformation is progressing well. At the same time, there is enough momentum behind investment to ensure a fast pace of growth in the second quarter of 2017. With good times ahead for the economy, picking up Chinese stocks like a smart op...
After opening the day on a positive note, share markets in India have continued the momentum and are trading comfortably above the dotted line. All sectoral indices are trading on a positive note. Stocks in the power sector and stocks in the PSU sector are leading the gains. The BSE Sensex is trading up by 83 points (up 0.3%), and the NSE Nifty is trading up by 15 points (up 0.2%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.3%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.4%. The rupee is trading at 64.48 to the US$. In news from stocks in the IT sector. US President Donald Trump is set to sign an executive order...
The first round of the French Presidential elections is held on Sunday, April 23rd, and the stakes are very high. Opinion polls in the past week have been showing an open 4-way race. Any two of the four leaders can make it into the second round. Here is some background towards the highly anticipated race, followed by four scenarios. Each scenario is accompanied by its probability and expected impact on the euro with EUR/USD targets. Background Not your usual French elections France holds two rounds of Presidential Elections. 11 candidates are vying for support in the first round on April 23rd. The top two will meet each other in the run-...
If you are raising money, you may encounter the phrases ‘smart’ and ‘dumb money’, as a way to describe different types of investors. As an entrepreneur, you may wonder: which is better for me. Should I try to get smart or dumb money? The first thing to keep in mind is that typically capital seems scarce. As an entrepreneur, you may not care who gives it to you, and you may want to take it where you can get it. So who cares. There are, however, a small subset of companies that are doing so well that investors want to throw money at them, in which case you can get picky. There are also a larger group of patient companies who may not nee...
<< Read Part I: A Short History Of The Post-WWII Oil price, From A Technical Perspective Is the Economy at the cusp of the next recession? Or maybe worse? Part II takes a look at the macroeconomic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- it’s not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and gloom, instead embrace crisis and opportunity! With our understanding of the history of oil, we now focus on the macro backdrop for our Big Trade. “When the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked”– Warren Buffet “This time around everything gets revealed in the next recession”-Plunger In the next recession...
Won’t bonds correlate with stocks in a bear market next time round with rates at historically low levels and likely to go up? Written by Ben Carlson (awealthofcommonsense.com) That is a good question but before getting to my thoughts on how likely it is that both stocks and bonds crater together, let’s look at the historical track record of a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio using 5 year total returns (ensuing performance matches up with starting year): The only time this mix of stocks and bonds went negative over 5 years was in the aftermath of the Great Depression when stocks fell more than 80% (bonds held up surprisingly well during...
In the first quarter, the Philippine peso depreciated against the US dollar. Internationally, this was attributed to President Duterte’s policies. In reality, it has a lot to do with the expected US rate hikes. But there is a reason why misguided geopolitics now overshadows Philippines. In the recent quarter, the Philippine peso depreciated by 0.88 percent against the US dollar. It was the only currency in Asia to do so. For the first time since 2009, the peso drifted to 50 per US dollar. Much of international media attributed the fall to President Duterte and his “unlawful” policies. The number of such reports has increased since last ...