The headline residential building permits improved. Our analysis agrees. Analyst Opinion of Residential Building The backward revisions this month were slight.The nature of this industry normally has large variations from month to month so the rolling averages are the best way to view this series – and it shows permits growing, and completions also growing. The strength this month is single family permits. Looking at residential construction employment, the year-over-year growth of employment is now slightly above the growth of housing starts. The unadjusted rate of annual growth for building permits in the last 12 months has been aroun...
Many times over the years, what the stock markets do in Germany and Europe, impacts stocks in the states. Several times Germany has been a leading indicator in bull and bear moves, ahead of what take place in the S&P 500. Below looks that the DAX index over the past decade and the important pattern that could be in play. DAX hit the top of 6-year rising channel (A) back in 2015, then proceeded to decline to the bottom rising channel (A) 14-months ago. The rally off the 2016 lows, now has the DAX testing 2015 highs at (1), which comes into play as resistance. A bearish rising wedge look to have formed over the past year, as support is n...
Well, you knew this was going to be something dramatic right from the start. Just check out the buildup: U.K. PM Theresa May Making Statement at 11:15am Local Time: BBC GBP/USD REVERSES GAIN, DROPS BELOW $1.2550 BEFORE MAY STATEMENT U.K. 10-YR GILT YIELDS EXTEND DROP TO 3BPS BEFORE MAY STATEMENT U.K. 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS BELOW 1%; FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER So that was at roughly 5:00 a.m. EST. And then, an hour later: MAY COULD ANNOUNCE GENERAL ELECTION FOR JUNE 8TH: BBC MAY SAYS SHE PLANS TO SEEK EARLY U.K. ELECTION ON JUNE 8 As you can see, cable and gilts were whipsawed: “Our opponents believe that because the government’s majority is so...
Fairmount Santrol Holdings (FMSA) Average day range (30) is 7.44% and average volume (30) is 6.6 million. Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) Average day range (30) is 5.79% and average volume (30) is 15.8million. AK Steel (AKS) Average day range (30) is 5.52% and average volume (30) is 17.6 million. Community Health Systems (CYH) Average day range (30) is 5.1% and average volume (30) is 3.8 million. Oclaro (OCLR) Average day range (30) is 5.08% and average volume (30) is 11 million. SunPower (SPWR) Average day range (30) is 5.04% and average volume (30) is 3.2 million. Sanchez Energy (SN) Average day range (30) is 5.01% and average volume (30) is...
This morning’s shocking announcement caught virtually everybody by surprise, and is prompting one bank after another to thoroughly revise their cable forecasts, case in point Deutsche Bank, whose strategist George Saravelos just announced he is changing his view on sterling because the “early elections are a game-changer”, something which the market clearly anticipated judging by the surge in cable… … a surge which will prompt the near record number of GBP shorts to cover en masse. To be sure, May’s announcement does make sense in retrospect: as Unicredit’s Vasileios Gkionakis notes, May’s logic is sou...
Remember the so-called “Trump Trade”? Both in terms of political developments and price action, it seems like November 8th was about a half-decade ago, not just five months ago. When it comes to the stock market, traders rushed out to buy industrial, material and financial stocks, while selling health care and technology stocks. The bearish health care thesis was fairly straightforward, given the Republicans’ promises to “repeal and replace” the current health care law, but the explanations for the drop in tech stocks was always a bit more tenuous. Some traders argued that Trump’s tough-on-immigration stan...
The big news on the morning highlights yet another geopolitical pressure point as British PM, Theresa May, announced that she is calling for early general elections in the U.K. with a vote to be held on June the 8th. Given Prime Minister May’s considerable advantage seen in polling numbers, this can be seen as a potential strategy to garner political control through Brexit negotiations, as few actually expect her to be up-seated. But if recent history has proven anything, political polls should be taken with a grain of salt as actual election results speak far louder and electorates are difficult to predict. The immediate impact to the Bri...
Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) early Tuesday posted mixed first quarter earnings results and offered a tepid shipment forecast for the second quarter, sending its shares plunging in premarket trading....
And finally to the euro index which continues to wallow in a sea of misery, as both politics and fundamental news continue to batter and buffet the single currency on a daily basis. The latest political news to impact the euro is this morning’s surprise announcement of a snap general election in the UK in June, and should the polls prove to be correct, likely to give the UK government the mandate it needs to drive through Britain’s exit from Europe and leave the euro more exposed than before. From a technical perspective, it is interesting to consider the euro over a spread of timeframes which reinforces the current malaise for the curren...
Another mixed picture from housing data following the roll-over in homebuilder sentiment last week. Housing Starts dropped 6.8% MoM in March to 1.215mm SAAR – the lowest since Nov 2016. The biggest driver was a 16% plunge in starts in The West and Midwest (35% plunge in Midwest single-family starts). Starts decline in both single- and multi-family-units… Permits beat expectations (rising 3.6% MoM) led by an 18.3% sequential surge in multi-family units....