The first round of the French elections is held on April 23rd and the stakes are high. Here are our four scenarios for the elections. Here is the view from SocGen: Societe Generale FX Strategy Research notes that the latest polls ahead of the French elections confirm the first round will be close with a 5% range encompassing support for the four main candidates. In that regard, SocGen argues that the first round outcome would likely see EUR/USD trade at new lows for this cycle before reversing course ahead of the second round vote. “Indeed, unless we go into round two with a significant poll lead for Mme Le Pen, EUR/USD is likely to b...
Western economies are “recovering”. How do we know this? We are told this, over and over and over again by our governments. Then this assertion is repeated thousands of times more by the dutiful parrots of the Corporate media. The problem is that in the real world there is not a shred of evidence to support this assertion. In the U.S.; ridiculous official lies were created claiming the creation of 15 million new jobs . In reality, there are three million three million three million with jobs today than at the official end of the “recession”. These imaginary jobs are invented by assorted statistical frauds, with the primary dec...
The pound took out not one, not two but three big figures today in the wake of a surprise announcement that Theresa May will call a snap election on June 8th. The news was met with resounding approval from the currency market as traders appreciated the shrewdness of the move which could consolidate Ms. May’s power and allow her unbridled power to negotiate the terms of Brexit. The move by cable wiped out many long-standing shorts and is likely to extend further challenging the key 1.3000 level over the near term horizon. For now, the pair sees support at 1.2600 and resistance at the 1.3000 level with a decidedly upward bias....
Many of the most popular high yield stocks are real estate investment trusts (REITs), master limited partnership (MLPs), and business development companies (BDCs). All of these industries are designed to pay very high dividends. When it comes to regular corporations, however, a very high dividend yield can be a warning sign that something is fundamentally flawed with the company’s business model. Many of these companies tend to have relatively low Dividend Safety Scores, indicating that their dividends could be at risk of being cut in the future. Let’s take a closer look at Seagate Technology (STX), which offers a high dividend yield abo...
Value and Momentum investing have been studied across many different markets and asset classes (Asness et al 2013) and have shown to be effective factors. A working paper, “Frontier Stock Markets: Local vs Global Factors” by Douglas W. Blackburn and Nusret Cakici examines Value and Momentum investing in Frontier Markets from 2005-2016. This paper is unique because prior research has focused on out of sample value and momentum factor testing in emerging markets, but not in frontier markets. The caveat, of course, is the short sample period of just over 10 years. The paper finds several things: Value and Momentum investing work in Front...
Murray Rothbard said it best when he said that “the threat of gold redeemability imposes a constant check and limit on inflationary issues of government paper. If the government can remove the threat, it can expand and inflate without cease. And so it begins to emit propaganda, trying to persuade the public not to use gold coins in their daily lives.” Why does government hate the gold standard … or any real standard for that matter? At the heart of government’s attack on gold, silver, bitcoin, and other commodity standards is an outright hatred for accountability and private property, and a real love for theft. How It All Began On Apr...
Unless housing starts data is another one-time affair, and it could be given the volatile nature of housing starts, this recovery is nearly over just as sentiment is peaking. Econoday notes a 6.8% decline in housing starts for March to 1.215 million units seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR). The reported dip is vs an upward revision in February from 1.288 million SAAR to 1.303 million SAAR. Thus, the effective dip vs the as-reported number last month is an oversized 5.7% The first quarter ended with a thud for housing starts which fell a very steep 6.8 percent to a 1.215 million annualized rate which is the weakest since November. Posting...
Turkish President Erdogan won a crucial constitutional referendum. What does it mean for the gold market? On Sunday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey, narrowly won a referendum that will greatly expand his power. With 98 percent of ballots counted, the “yes” vote stood at 51.4 percent. The final results are expected to be announced in several days. The opposition said that the results were skewed, as ballots that had not been officially stamped were also accepted. European monitors stated that the referendum did not live up to the Council of Europe’s standards, but the Supreme Electoral Council has already confirmed the “yes...
Audio Length: 01:13:07 Mebane Faber is the founder and CIO at Cambria Investment Management, where he manages Cambria’s ETFs, separate accounts and private investment funds. He’s also authored numerous white papers and five books now, on various investing subjects. Meb’s a budding podcaster too, his podcast; The Meb Faber Show. The main reason why I asked Meb to join me for this episode, was to share some simple ways that active traders can capitalize on the opportunity and compounding effect that (somewhat passive) longer-term investing has to offer. So, I ask Meb about; where to start out, how to set expectations, various types of por...