Certainly, a main theme for fixed income investors in 2017 has been one of rising interest rates. There is no doubt that we have been down this road before, only to witness no increases, or in some instances even falling rates. So, what makes this time different, and should investors listen to, or ignore, “the boy who cried wolf”? One of the key differences this time around is the Federal Reserve (Fed). The late 2016/early 2017 experience has highlighted this development, as policy makers raised the Fed Funds target range twice, for a total of 50 basis points (bps) in a three-month time frame. This latest rate hike by policy make...
Bull flag chart pattern now in play on SPX SPX is forming a nice bull flag pattern. It doesn’t feel that way, because nearly every day the market opens, it sells off. If it finishes higher on the day, it is well off the highs of the day. But back to the bull flag pattern, the chart of SPX has been more focused on the triangle pattern it had been previously stuck in, but while that was ongoing, it also formed a bull pattern, but has yest to break out of it. Check out the chart below. A move above 2375, will help with that. In fact a move above that price level will put SPX back on the up-and-up as it would confirm a breakout of the bul...
5,440 was our line in the sand. Since March 21st we’ve been using that line to short the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) as a move above that line was in no way justified without some real improvements in earnings and now, with earnings season upon us, we’re still not seeing evidence yet that the market should be breaking higher. In that same 3/21 post, we had 11,550 on the broader NYSE and now the NYSE is at 11,375 – down 175 (1.5%) while the /NQ is back at 5,415 this morning. Our Long-Term Portfolio was up 148.9% that morning and, as of yesterday’s close, we’re at +162%, gaining $65,402 in less than a month so we cert...
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) early Wednesday posted market-beating first quarter earnings results, helped by better loan performance and investment banking fees....
With establishment pollsters panicking at the closeness of the first round of the French elections, it appears investors in every market – stocks, bonds, and FX – are just as concerned with hedges and risk premia at (or near) record highs across the board. With just a few days to go before Sunday’s first round of voting, every poll for the past month has shown independent Emmanuel Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen taking the top two spots. Macron would then easily win the May 7 runoff, polls show. Yet both front-runners have been steadily slipping over the past two weeks, and Republican Francois Fillon an...
The US housing market continues to strengthen this year thanks mainly to improvement in the labor market and still low interest rates. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) timber REIT is well positioned to capitalize on the housing market recovery. About the Company Structured as a REIT, Potlatch (PCH – Free Report) owns approximately 1.4 million acres of forestland in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Minnesota and Mississippi. The company also operates five manufacturing facilities that produce lumber and panel products. They are among the top 10 lumber manufacturers in the US. Additionally, the company conducts a real estate sales and develop...
? Looking at The Data With the first round of the French elections rapidly approaching (April 23rd), voters’ sentiment appears to have settled around roughly 25% each for both centrist candidate Macron and Far-Right candidate Le Pen with Francois Fillon holding behind around 18% – 20%. The latest data reflects a gradual but steady decline in abstentions with turnout intentions rising to 64% in April from 59% in March and likely to continue to rise approaching the voting. The data also suggests that voters are becoming more certain of their choice with 70% of electors saying that they are now sure, which is up sharply from earlier in th...
The year-over-year rate of growth of the US Coincident Index marginally increased relative to last month’s revised level. A comparison of this US Coincident Index with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board Coincident Index, ECRI’s Coincident Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index follows. Analyst Opinion of the Current Status of the Coincident Indicators The reality is that most of the economic indicators have moderate to significant backward revision – but this month it seems the majority rear view mirror says the USA economy is slowing, flat or improving. Out of this group of coi...
In the U.S. overall petroleum inventories continue to fall as the petroleum oversupply drain game has begun. Not only did we see the API report an 840,000 barrel drop in crude oil inventory but also a 1.8 million barrel drop in distillate inventory offsetting a surprise 1,347-million-barrel increase in gasoline inventory caused another drop in overall U.S. liquid supply. This is just the beginning of the U.S. oil inventory drain game if you are to believe OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo who said that all crude producers, both from OPEC and non-OPEC nations, are committed to getting global inventories down below the five-year average....