Latest Posts
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Finance 0
Ratings Are Yesterday, Data Is Tomorrow
The TV business was once ruled by overnight ratings. Those metrics are becoming less and less meaningful in a world of mobile-first consumers. Online networks such as Netflix and Amazon don’t want or need third-party ratings. They know exactly what is being consumed, by whom, and when. Delivery and analytics are their core competencies. Additionally, Netflix and Amazon own their customer billing relationships, and whoever owns the customer usually wins. Netflix’s (very expensive) decision to greenlight House of Cards was largely data driven. Netflix knew that the British House of Cards had been widely consumed by its customers. Direct... -
Finance 0
Ratings Are Yesterday, Data Is Tomorrow
The TV business was once ruled by overnight ratings. Those metrics are becoming less and less meaningful in a world of mobile-first consumers. Online networks such as Netflix and Amazon don’t want or need third-party ratings. They know exactly what is being consumed, by whom, and when. Delivery and analytics are their core competencies. Additionally, Netflix and Amazon own their customer billing relationships, and whoever owns the customer usually wins. Netflix’s (very expensive) decision to greenlight House of Cards was largely data driven. Netflix knew that the British House of Cards had been widely consumed by its customers. Direct... -
Finance 0
The Fed Is Playing, “Pin The Tale On The Elephant!”
The Federal Reserve’s Zero Interest Rate experiment saved the banks and destroyed the retirement plans of many generations. Now they want to “normalize” things. Their solutions are ill timed and risky! When things collapse, President Trump will become a combination of Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter – blamed for the catastrophe. Democrats will be cheering, “Pin the tale on the Elephant!” Republicans will be scattering like dandelion seeds in a tornado. Follow the money The Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) was sold as an emergency one-time bailout and interest rates would quickly return to normal. One-time and quickly didn... -
Finance 0
John Burbank Shuts Down His Long-Short Hedge Fund
We almost made it a full month without a prominent hedge fund shuttering – an eternity in an age when ETFs and passive vehicles soak up several billion in capital each day at the expense of “active” managers – and then Bloomberg spoiled the streak when it reported that John Burbank, one of the handful of investors who made a killing from shorting subprime, and head of the $2.4 billion Passport Capital is shutting down one of his core hedge funds, the latest in a string of closings hitting the industry. Passport Capital’s Long-Short Strategy Fund is winding down and will return money to investors. The fund, which had ... -
Finance 0
Why Long-Run Theories Of Profit And Accumulation Fall Short
by Philip Pilkington Nothing gets heterodox economists quite so fussed as the long-run theory of the rate of profit. Yet, Keynes did without one altogether and when examined closely there is no way that such a theory can say anything tangible about the real world. In order to lay this out I am going to take my leave from Joan Robinson’s excellent book Economic Heresies: Some Old-Fashioned Questions in Economic Theory. When Robinson discusses Keynes she says that he had no real interest in a long-run theory of profits and accumulation. In the long-run, Keynes famously said, we are all dead. All that matter is short-term analysis. Crucially ... -
Finance 0
EUR/USD, GBP/USD And EUR/CAD TA – April 20
EUR/USD intra-day analysis EUR/USD (1.0719): After EUR/USD rose to a one-month higher yesterday; prices retreated pulling back from the highs of 1.0736 to close on a bearish note. With prices above 1.0700, there is strong indication that EUR/USD could remain consolidated above 1.0700 in the near term. The bias remains to the upside above 1.0700, targeting 1.0800 resistance level. However, this could change in the event of a breakdown below the support at 1.0700. We could expect to see a decline towards the lower support at 1.0600. GBP/USD intra-day analysis GBP/USD (1.2794): GBP/USD maintained some of the gains from the day before, but p... -
Finance 0
Toward The New Gold-En Era
In the past half a decade, gold prices were fueled by negative rates. Now gold is driven by geopolitical risks, efforts at gold-backed trade and local prices. Not so long ago, the conventional wisdom was that the continued recovery of the US economy would support rate hikes and thus the strengthening of the US dollar, which would pave way for gold’s further decline. It was conventional wisdom at its best; persuasive but flawed. In reality, US recovery does not mean a return to the pre-2008 world, but secular stagnation across the major advanced economies. Consequently, as I have argued since the early 2010s, the Fed’s rate hikes will be l... -
Finance 0
An In-Depth Look At The Precious Metals Complex
Before we look at the charts I would like to thank Sir Plunger for putting on the short oil trade this week while I was recovering from surgery. You won’t find a more thorough and in-depth look at oil than what Sir Plunger offered. And wouldn’t you know it his timing as usual was impeccable. Oil dropped almost 4% earlier this week. Now lets turn our attention to the sector which many members have a love hate relationship with. There is a potential new pattern forming on some of the precious metals stock indexes which is only coming to light today. Before today’s price action there was only a guess of what may be forming with no confirma... -
Finance 0
Investment Advisors Aren’t Worth The Money
I had a conversation with a prospective client the other day who called me inquiring as to what we do. I gave him the typical run down that we are a fee-only investment advisor specializing in ETF portfolios. In other words, we provide discretionary management of client accounts using low-cost investment tools. His response {paraphrasing}: “Mr. Fabian, I know a CFO of a big publicly traded company. He told me they did a big study about the use of investment advisors and that they aren’t worth the 1% fee. That all you need to do is buy ETFs to reduce the drag of expenses on your portfolio. What do you have to say to that?” I immediately ... -
Finance 0
E Should You Consider Social Trading CopyFunds?
Every online trader wants to strike it big in the market, yet according to data, the vast majority quit just months after joining this lucrative world of online trading. So, why is that? And is there an antidote to failure? Conventional wisdom dictates that a cautious approach is the best way to do it. If you are planning on joining the online trading market, then you should be prepared to make substantial losses as you would expect, profits. Nonetheless, most traders only choose to see one side of the coin while completely ignoring the other. While most traders continue to lose money, the online trading market is still the most active market...
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