A lot of folks have a hard time keeping track of flows data and an even harder time interpreting it. Fortunately, we’ve seen at least two instances over the past six weeks of outflows from particular asset classes that are so large as to be idiot-proof in terms of interpretation. Recall the mass exodus from HY last month when the bottom suddenly fell out for crude and, perhaps more poignantly, the $14.5 billion investors yanked from US equity funds in the week ended April 5. Well on Friday, BofAML’s Barnaby Martin is out with a great chart that measures “flow strength” (the average of flows as a % percentage of AUM across assets)....
In 1830, France was once more swept up in revolution, only this time at the end of it was installed one king to replace another. Louis-Phillipe became, in fact, France’s last king as a result of that July Revolution. The country was trying to make sense of its imperial past with the growing democratic sentiments of the 19th century. Despite being one of the richest men in all Europe and aligned with the Bourbons, he was Duke of Orleans and married to a Neapolitan princess, the reign of Louis-Phillipe I was supposed to be a milder form of dominion, the so-called citizen king or bourgeois monarch. Caught up in the upheaval of 1830 were many w...
France’s upcoming presidential election is a major test for European unity. For traders, it is also indicated a possible trend for Euroscepticism in a region that is growing more hostile to integration. When it comes to the French elections, there is no shortage of scary outcomes from a financial perspective. The biggest risk is undoubtedly Marine Le Pen, the far-right National Front leader who has vowed to close France’s borders and exit the euro. Le Pen’s victory would have major consequences not just for France, but the rest of Europe. On the opposite side of the political spectrum is Jean-Luc Melenchon, the Communist-backed leader w...
Oil is headed for its biggest weekly loss since early March as signs that OPEC will continue with output reductions are offset by growing U.S. production and inventory gluts. Having tried and failed to spark some momentum yesterday (via Saudi jawboning and Goldman confidence), WTI Crude just plunged below $50 for the first time since March. “It all comes down to whether OPEC can deliver inventory cuts,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, said by telephone. “So far we haven’t seen a lot of evidence that they’re succeeding.” It seems Goldman’s muppets a...
Vascular Biogenics Ltd. (VBLT), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company yesterday announced positive results from the Data Safety Monitoring Committee (DSMC) of the company’s phase 3 GLOBE trial of VB-111. The DSMC is an independent group that reviews the safety concerns and provides recommendations for trial continuations. VB-111 is a biologic agent that targets solid tumors. The committee unanimously recommended the study should be continued as planned. Vascular Biogenics Ltd.CEO’s Comments “We are pleased with the outcome of the DSMC,” said Dror Harats, Chief Executive Officer of VBL Therapeutics. “Based on enrollment tr...
Forecast for the EUR/USD currency pair Technical indicators of the currency pair: Prev Opening: 1.07114 Opening: 1.07163 Chg. % Of the last day: +0.06 Daily range: 1.07064 – 1.07240 52-week range: 1.0366 – 1.1616 Yesterday’s trading on EUR/USD was very active. At the same time, a unidirectional trend was not observed. Despite the weak statistics from the US, the US currency rose against the euro in the afternoon. At the moment, the key trading range is 1.07000-1.07350. We are waiting for data on business activity in the EU. The MACD histogram is in the negative area, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD...
EUR/USD is holding its breath but beginning to show signs of worry towards the French elections. What’s the trade? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Going into the first round of the French elections on Sunday, BTMU FX Strategy Research’s base case for a higher EUR is mainly based on the assumption that neither Le Pen nor Melenchon become the next French president. Thus, BTMU argues that the worst case scenario for the markets when they open in Asia on Monday morning would be the shock result of Le Pen and Melenchon reaching the 2nd round election on 7th May. “Given how little risk premium we believe is priced, there is a cons...
The headlines for existing home sales growth pace declined improved saying “finding available properties to buy continues to be a strenuous task for many buyers, there was enough of a monthly increase in listings in March for sales to muster a strong gain”. Our analysis of the unadjusted data agrees. Analyst Opinion of Existing Home Sales This was a good month for home sales which makes up for the poor month last month. Note that the sales rate of homes over the last year is averaging about 5% growth year over year. Econintersect Analysis Unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 8.0 % month-over-month, up 8.3 % year-over-y...
In case there are any questions about what is moving the stock market, yesterday’s rally should have cleared things up. Yes fans, expectations for the Trump Administration to effect changes to the tax code remains a primary driver of stock prices. With the market teetering on the brink of an important technical breakdown (I’m of the mind that a sustained move below 2320 on the S&P 500 would embolden the bears), stocks suddenly rallied yesterday on comments from Steven Mnuchin regarding the outlook for the development of tax reform legislation. Recall that up until just recently, Mnuchin had been saying he wanted a tax plan passed befo...