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Finance 0
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 24 And May 1
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. ` Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of April 24 April 24 Chicago Fed National Economy Activity – March 0.4 0.34 0.3 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 18 16.9 15.0 April 25 FHFA House Price Index – February 0.5% 0.0 0.4 S&P Case/Shiller Index – February Twenty City M/M 0.1% 0.2 Twenty City M/M – SA 0.8 0.9 0.6 Twenty City Y/Y 5.8 5.7% 5.8 PMI Services Flash Index 53.6 52.8 New Home Sales – March 580K 592 584K Consumer Conf... -
Finance 0
E Bonds And SPX Confirming Sell Signals
VIX appears to have completed the right shoulder of an inverted Head & Shoulders neckline at 16.28. It is on a buy signal above Long-term support at 13.01. A breakout above the neckline suggests that the Ending Diagonal formation may also be at risk of a breach. An actual change in long-term trend may occur above the top trendline of the 15-month long Ending Diagonal formation at 18.00. (SchaeffersResearch) Last week, we noted that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was sitting on its second-largest year-to-date percentage gain for this point in the year, going back 10 years. As of yesterday’s five-month high of 16.28, howev... -
Finance 0
Dollar Technicals Trying To Turn
The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week, as yields stabilized. However, the technical condition still has not turned convincingly in the dollar’s favor against most of the major foreign currencies. On the other hand, our fundamental conviction that the divergence theme remains intact and is the underlying driver continues to inform our constructive outlook. On the eve of the French presidential election, the euro eased to three-day lows. At $1.07, it retraced 38.2% of its gains since the April 10 low of $1.0570. The 50% retracement is near $1.0675, which roughly corresponds with the highs from April 12, 13, and 17th... -
Finance 0
Why “Nothing Matters”: Central Banks Have Bought A Record $1 Trillion In Assets In 2017
A quick, if familiar, observation to start the day courtesy of Bank of America which in the latest overnight note from Michael Hartnett notes that central banks (ECB & BoJ) have bought $1 trillion of financial assets just in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, “the largest CB buying on record.” As Hartnett notes, the “Liquidity Supernova is the best explanation why global stocks & bonds both annualizing double-digit gains YTD despite Trump, Le Pen, China, macro…” And for those who have still not seen it, here is the only chart that matters. Finally, as a remin... -
Finance 0
The Disintegrating Energy Sector Will Make The Entire System Grind To A Halt
Very few Americans realize that the disintegrating energy industry will make the entire economy and market grind to a halt. This won’t happen overnight, but if we look at history over several decades or a century, it will have fallen apart rather quickly. Unfortunately, there is nothing we can do about it because the time to transition has long gone, more than 20+ years ago. I sat down with Dave at the X22Report Spotlight and discussed why the energy industry is disintegrating and what that means for the U.S. and global economy: There’s a lot of analysis out there that suggests the over-leveraged and massively indebted markets are th... -
Finance 0
EC Cracks In Ponzi-Finance Land
Retail Debt Debacles The retail sector has replaced the oil sector in a sense, and not in a good way. It is the sector that is most likely to see a large surge in bankruptcies this year. Junk bonds issued by retailers are performing dismally, and within the group the bonds of companies that were subject to leveraged buyouts by private equity firms seem to be doing the worst (a function of their outsized debt loads). Here is a chart showing the y-t-d performance of a number of these bonds as of the end of March: Returns of several of the worst performing junk bonds issued by retailers in Q1 2017. This is rather impressive value destruction for... -
Finance 0
DAX As Of April 21
Only a fall below 11.850 will flash a yellow alert to this market. I see stops being there so a test of this area in the next sessions is on the table source: INVESTING.COM... -
Finance 0
EC You Are Not An Investor
Giotto, Legend of St Francis, Exorcism of the Demons at Arezzo c.1297-1299 You are not an investor. One can only be an investor in functioning markets. There have been no functioning markets since at least 2008, and probably much longer. That’s when central banks started purchasing financial assets, for real, which means that is also the point when price discovery died. And without price discovery no market can function. You are therefore not an investor. Perhaps you are a cheat, perhaps you are a chump, but you are not an investor. If we continue to use terms like ‘investor’ and ‘markets’ for what we see today, we would need to inv... -
Finance 0
How The Recent Executive Order Could Change The US Commodity Sector
Last week, a request from the Uranium Producers of America (‘UPA’) grabbed the headlines, as the organization was asking the US Department of Energy (DOE) to suspend the sale of (physical) uranium on the spot market. The UPA correctly described the status of the US based Uranium producers as ‘fragile’, and it’s pretty clear the DOE has been a huge ‘help’ in destroying America’s domestic uranium market. UPA says ‘ the uranium market is oversupplied in the short term, and the DOE material continues to overwhelm the market with large quantities of price insensitive supply’, and this statement is absolutely correct. The DOE h... -
Finance 0
Oil’s Near-6% Drop May Pave The Path For Improving Fundamentals
Fundamental Forecast forUSOIL: Neutral Talking Points: North American Oil Production at highest output levels since August 2015, per EIA Crude Oil Price Forecast: Downside Stalls on OPEC Favoring Extension Sentiment showing retail traders flipped to net-long favoring ST downside per contrarian effect Baker Hughes Rig Count Rises 5 Total to 688, 1 Added In Permian, 3 In Eagle Ford Shale Will Oil Resume Its Downtrend in 2Q? You wouldn’t know it by looking at the charts, but there was more encouraging news from OPEC as well as a US Inventory Draw on Wednesday per the EIA weekly release. Earlier this week, we heard that major oil producers h...
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