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Significant Risk Prevalent For The Week Ahead
The major stock indices once again ended a week within the expected move and that is why we have been talking about this in every weekend update for months. Going into next week implied volatility has risen across the board signaling major risk in the market. The expected move in the S&P has not been this high since the presidential election. In this critical weekend update prepare yourself for the trading week ahead. The French elections, tax plan unveiling, and earnings will present significant opportunities next week for those who are prepared.... -
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E Conatus Pharmaceuticals Announces Two Poster Presentations At EASL Conference
On Friday, Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT) presented two posters at the European Association for the Study of the Liver — EASL — conference. This conference took place at Amsterdam, and it is where all biotech companies developing drugs for liver disease go to present. The two posters presented came from a data analysis done by W. Ray Kim. M.D., professor of Medicine, and the lead author of the posters Ajitha Mannalithara, P.h.D, Engineering Research Associate. Both of whom worked at the Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology. The two poster presentations were entitled as follows: Poster #1 : Poster #FRI-485 entitled, “... -
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Speculators Take Big Positions, Including Shifting To Net Long Mexican Pesos
In the CFTC reporting period ending April 21, speculators added to significant positions in the euro, sterling and the Mexican peso. Bulls and bears took more exposure in the euro and sterling, while in the peso net longs dominated. The gross longs rose 12.2k contracts in the euro to stand at 185.8k contracts.It is the fifth week in the past six that the bulls added to their stockpile. The Bloomberg data suggest this is a record large gross long position, days before the French presidential election. Speculators have pared their long position in only four weeks this year. But to be sure, the shorts have not capitulated. The gross positi... -
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AUD/USD Forecast April 24 – 28
AUD/USD reversed directions last week and posted modest losses. The pair closed the week at 0.7528. This week’s key event is CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In the US, construction figures were mixed and manufacturing and employment numbers missed their estimates. The Aussie softened after the RBA minutes expressed concern about the domestic employment and housing sectors. Updates AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. CPI is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The index dipped to 0.... -
Finance 0
Crude Oil Forecast For May 2017
The price of crude oil was weak last week. Crude oil dropped from $53.20 early this week to $49.62 on Friday. That is a 6.7 percent drop in a week, which is rather significant even for a volatile asset like crude oil. What is InvestingHaven’s crude oil forecast for May 2017? Examining that question is interesting, as it brings up the key reason why we do not tend to focus on fundamental data when forecasting. If we would be looking into fundamental data, in particular supply/demand, we would conclude that lower crude supplies would result in a higher price, according to the data from this oil price report. InvestingHaven warned readers ... -
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Hedge Fund Performance Is (Still) Improving! Everyone (Still) Doesn’t Care
Earlier this month, we brought you “It’s Probably Too Late: Hedge Fund Performance ‘Improves,’ But Market’s Patience Is Gone.” In it, we highlighted the fact that hedge funds’ risk-adjusted performance is actually improving. But we also noted that at this point, it probably doesn’t matter. The passive/active ship has sailed. That horse has left the barn. Every tired old adage about “too little, too late” applies. The meteoric rise of ETFs has conspired with $13 trillion in central bank liquidity to all but relegate active management to the dustbin of history. You can’t expect people to pay exorbitant fees for you to unde... -
Finance 0
Week In Review: Tianjin CanSino Closes $65 Million Round For Vaccine Portfolio
Tianjin CanSino Biologics, a vaccine developer, raised $65 Million in its latest funding round (see story). Currently, CanSino is testing four products in Phase I to III clinical trials, conducted in North America, Africa and China respectively. It also has three IND submissions awaiting CFDA trial approvals. The latest CanSino financing was led by Future Industry Investment Fund, a private equity fund managed by state-owned SDIC Fund Management. Shaanxi Kanghui Pharmaceutical (SHA: 603139) raised $52 million in a Shanghai exchange IPO (see story). Founded in 2009 and headquartered in Xianyang, Kanghui has developed more than 100 produc... -
Finance 0
Markets Rally As Expected…Now What?
In last weekend’s newsletter, I suggested the markets could rally this week with some very specific caveats. Let’s review where we are. (All charts updated through Friday.) “The market has now tripped the first signal as shown above, and below, sending a warning that further weakness could ensue. With the first signal registered, combined with a break of the 50-dma, we are now on ‘a signal-1 alert.’” “With portfolios already hedged, as we added a lot of bond and interest rate sensitive holdings back in January, there is no action to take currently. This is why, for now, it is only an ‘alert’ that something more ... -
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The Long-Short US Sector Rotation Strategy
The following paper will explain how to build a U.S. sector rotation strategy (a US sector rotation meta strategy combining dynamically 5 different sector strategies based on SPDR ETF) which allocates dynamically between 4 different long US sector rotation strategies and one short US sector rotation strategy. This strategy is therefore different from our Global Sector Rotation strategy, as it only emplys US sectors. Due to low correlation of these sector rotations, the combination creates an ETF sector rotation model with considerably higher Sharpe values. The addition of the negatively correlated short sector rotation model significant... -
Finance 0
Emerging Markets Poised To Outperform
In our Spring 2017 Investor Letter we briefly commented on first quarter investment changes we initiated in client accounts, specifically, adding exposure to emerging markets. Expanded commentary follows on some of the rationale for this change. Simply because an asset class or stock is cheap does not necessarily suggest the asset should be purchased; however, valuation does tend to matter in the long run. The below chart was referenced in our Spring Investor Letter and the top pane of the chart shows the relative valuation of the MSCI Emerging Market Index versus the S&P 500 Index favors emerging markets. Additionally, when comparing t...
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