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    Investors: Watch These 4 Charts After The French Elections

    The topic of this week has been the French elections. Everyone is watching the French elections results as if they will change the world, in an emotional rather than rational way. Let’s look at some examples in financial media to illustrate what we are saying. This MoneyControl article stresses the importance of the French election on the economy and markets: “Global investors and markets are all focused on the crucial French elections – the voters on Sunday will heading to the polls to choose their next president. The election of the president is very crucial for the Eurozone economy overall.” (our emphasis) CNBC agrees that th...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    NZD/USD Forecast Apr. 24-28

    The New Zealand dollar was trading around the 0.70 level once again. Five events await us this week. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. Milk prices continue rising as seen in the latest GDT Price Index: 3.1%. The CPI beat expectations by rising 1% but there were doubts about the details, limiting the kiwi’s rise. In the US, disillusion from Donald Trump weighed on the greenback but not enough to really move NZD/USD. Updates: NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Visitor Arrivals: Tuesday, 22:45. Tourism is New Zealand’s second sector after dair...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Markets In-Review: Markets Brace For French Elections

    ? S&P 500 scores moderate 0.85% weekly gain, amid expectations for U.S. tax cut ? GBP/USD adds 2.3% weekly on May’s call for U.K. elections, weighing on FTSE 100 ? Gold loses 0.1% weekly, as Syria strike woes dissolve ? Oil loses 6.7% weekly following data on increasing U.S. inventories The high odds attributed to Marine Le Pen managing to win a ticket for the second round of the French elections has weighed on equity markets this past week. The U.S. S&P 500 opened the week by rising 1.15% between Monday and Thursday, with gains fueled by U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stating on Thursday that he expects a tax reform to be revealed...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, April 23

    GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair broke out during the week, clearing the 1.2750 level. Because of this, I believe that this market will continue to go higher, and perhaps reach as high as the 1.3450 level over the next couple of weeks. I have no interest in selling, and I believe that pullbacks offer value the traders will continue to take advantage of. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair rallied during the week, breaking above the 1.0750 level. More importantly, it broke above the top of the shooting star from the previous week. Because of this, I believe that the market is going to continue the slight upward channel that we have seen as of late. Pullbacks sho...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Global Chest Thumping

    US equities rallied this week, with the S&P 500 up +0.9% and the Russel 2000 (IWM) up +2.6%, regaining a bullish market phase. The Nasdaq 100 closed at all-time highs. Several sectors gained ground including semiconductors which reasserted itself as the leading sector and regained its bullish phase. Some safe havens such as Utilities and Gold paused this week, which is a positive for equities. This occurred despite increased geopolitical tensions that included chest thumping by both the US and Russia regarding who’s got the bigger bomb. Russian bombers twice approached US airspace before being escorted away. US equities also survived th...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Here’s What’s Changed: “Markets Might Not Have To Wait Two Weeks To Sell Off”

    It’s probably safe to say we’ve reached something that approximates “peak” French election analysis on Wall Street. No one wants to be the macro (or rates or FX) strategist that didn’t weigh in and/or recommend a hedge or a trade. Similarly, everyone is trying their hand at palm reading. Every poll is parsed. Previous election results are scrutinized. Anything to avoid what happened with Brexit and Trump, when everyone (including the pollsters themselves) failed miserably when it came to predicting outcomes. No one is taking much solace in the fact that just last month we dodged another (blond) populist bullet in the Netherlands...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Above The 40 – A Stock Market Knocking On The Door

    AT40 = 53.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 61.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.6 (volatility index)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish) Commentary In the middle of last week, the S&P 500 (SPY) looked firmly locked in a state of stasis. The very next day, the index rallied right through resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) before closing directly beneath it. While sellers returned to close out the week, the pattern of higher lows continued even as the downtrend from all-time highs held as resistance. (Note that I redrew the downtrend one...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Your Complete Guide To Sunday’s French Presidential Elections First Round

    Ahead of Sunday’s first round of the French election, we have previously provided several perspectives on the political and economic outcomes, including a permutation matrix of all six possible outcomes in terms of “high” vs “low market risk” (from BofA), why the market may be too complacent about a Le Pen – Melenchon result (candidate approval variance is within the polling error), and that European stocks have completely failed to price in any adverse outcome (as DB observed yesterday). So with markets now closed, and all bets off, if only for the next two days until the results emerge, here is a co...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    DailyFX US Desk Round Table Recap: French Elections Dominate FX Markets

    The US Desk Round Table is a bi-monthly webinar series in which DailyFX analysts discuss the top themes impacting FX markets, and how upcoming events and data might sway those trends. This week, Market Analyst Paul Robinson, Senior Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio, and Trading Instructor Tyler Yell, CMT gathered to discuss the announcement of snap elections in the UK and how it might impact Brexit and the British Pound, how traders should approach the Euro with French elections this Sunday, and what might happen to the US Dollar as markets continue to discount fiscal stimulus and a faster Fed rate hike cycle. Chart 1 : GBP/USD Dai...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Rebuild The Wall Of Worry?

    As some market worries have been put to rest, there is a growing appetite for new ones. Pundits who say that things look OK are not very exciting. Last week we saw a shift in attention. Despite healthy earnings and good economic data, I expect pundits to be asking: What should investors be worried about? Personal Note No WTWA next weekend. If something major happens, I’ll post some thoughts. Would readers find it helpful to have an update of the indicators even when I am away? Last Week Last week the economic news was good, but mostly ignored. Theme Recap In my last WTWA I predicted a week focused on geopolitical risks. Despite some atten...
    On April 23, 2017 / By