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  • Finance 0

    Politics And Economics In The Week Ahead

    The results of the French presidential election will be known prior to the open of the Asian session. No doubt the outcome will spur an initial knee-jerk reaction, but barring an outright victory for Le Pen, which seems highly unlikely, or the left candidate Melenchon coming in second place, which also seems improbable, the market’s reaction will likely be short-lived.   While there is, of course, a certain amount of anxiety, especially given the electoral surprises over the past year, investment community seems not overly worried. Large speculators in the currency futures have been amassing what Bloomberg calculates as a record larg...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD:Recovers, Threatens Further Upside Pressure

    EUR/USD: With the pair retaining its upside pressure, more strength is expected. Resistance comes in at 1.0750 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.0800 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.0850 level where a break will expose the 1.0900 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.0650 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0600 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0550 level. All in all, EUR/USD faces further bear threats.  ...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Week Ahead: Hard Reality For The US And UK Economies?

    The last week of April starts with the echoes from the French elections and continues with key economic data. A rate decision in Japan precedes the first GDP releases from the UK and the US. As voters are getting ready in Britain, will they finally see some of the negative effects of Brexit? In the US, the hard data pointed to a very weak Q1, but the soft data such as consumer confidence was much more optimistic. Which one will prevail? There are other interesting figures as well. Video length: 00:02:17  ...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Economic Events Of The Coming Week – Sunday, April 23

    Monday: Markets will price in the results of the first round of the French elections. The IFO Survey will see light in Germany. Tuesday: March New Home Sales data will see light in the U.S. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April will also see light in the U.S., as well as April’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Wednesday: February’s All Industry Activity Index will see light in Japan. April Consumer Confidence Index data will be released in France. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications will see light in the U.S. Twitter will announce the first quarter’s earnings. Thursday: Preliminary April Consumer Price Inde...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Stays Stubborn Whilst Silver Slips Under

    Our last two weekly missives have highlighted Gold’s being technically “high” near-term, (yet fundamentally undervalued — understatement — in the broadest sense). And as the above panel shows, Gold remains higher than where ’twas at this time a year ago (1236), settling out the week on Friday at 1286 for a year-to-date gain of 11.6%. One might consider such gain consider as “impressive”, given the stock market per the S&P 500 being but +4.9% so far this year; and anything but “impressive” is the corresponding year-to-date practically non-leveraged gain by the Gold miners as...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Australian Dollar Looks Short Of Clear Positives

    Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish The fundamentals aren’t looking great for the Aussie Whether via nervy risk appetite or weak commodity prices, bulls have their work cut out Consumer price data may offer some hope Australian Dollar bulls didn’t have a great week last week. Can they hope for a better one ahead? Unlikely, on current evidence. International tensions over North Korea and Syria still simmer, damming the global risk appetite which rather benefits the Aussie when in full flood. Then there’s Sunday’s first round Presidential vote in France. These things overwhelmingly tend to go to a second runoff...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    “The Retail Bubble Has Now Burst”: A Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017

      “Thousands of new doors opened and rents soared. This created a bubble, and like housing, that bubble has now burst.”       – Richard Hayne, Urban Outfitters CEO, March 2017 The devastation in the US retail sector is accelerating in 2017, and in addition to the surging number of brick and mortar retail bankruptcies, it is perhaps nowhere more obvious than in the soaring number of store closures. While the shuttering of retail stores has been a frequent topic on this website, most recently in the context of the next “big short”, namely the ongoing deterioration in the mall REITs and associated Commercial Mort...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Week In Review: How Trump’s Policies Moved Stocks – April 23

    Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President Trump and his administration with this weekly recap compiled by The Fly: 1. STEEL SECTOR: On Thursday, Donald Trump met with several steel company CEOs at the White House to discuss the state of the industry and the administration’s plans to crack down on steel dumping. Following the sit down, Trump signed a memorandum related to section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and said he has directed the Commerce Department to launch an investigation into whether or not foreign companies, par...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    How Many Traders Does It Take To Change A Lightbulb?

    How many hard hats does it take to remove a sapling? Apparently five. One to control the forklift and four to stand around and watch. Ok, derivation of an old joke. However, applicable to last week’s market action. First off, while one guy does all the work, the others fold their arms and inspect. Secondly, the forklift appears like overkill considering the size of the sapling. Thirdly, the observers stand far enough away to avoid I imagine, getting hit not by the tree but by the machinery. In the market, Technology and the FANG stocks did all the work. Many other sectors stood around with arms folded inspecting the move. The Nasdaq forklif...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekly Economic & Political Timeline – Sunday, April 23

    There will be a greater amount of high-impact news scheduled this week, compared to last week. There is central bank input expected from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, as well as a smattering of other data, including some important U.S. data. The market will probably be most active on Thursday. It will be a public holiday in Italy, Australia and New Zealand world on Tuesday. U.S. Dollar It will be a busy week for the greenback, beginning on Tuesday with a release of Consumer Confidence data. Wednesday brings Crude Oil Inventories numbers. Thursday sees the release of Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims, followe...
    On April 23, 2017 / By