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  • Finance 0

    Euro Bund Market Observations

    Let’s start off with some observations for the Euro Bund.  Looking at the plain weekly chart, we can identify a break of the one-time-framing higher behavior which occurred for several weeks now. The market took out the previous week’s high and low (I will call it an outside week) with the result of a possible change in the overall market context. The market actually did not close below the previous week’s low, therefore we can’t speak of a sure break. Anyway, with some ongoing global tensions we should keep an open mind for any possible surprise in the story. Also, we took out a swing high which could lead the market...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Venezuela On The Verge Of Revolution As Hyperinflated Currency Crashes To New Record Low

    Venezuela, a country with only $10 billion left in reserves to run on, is in trouble. As the currency hyperinflates to new record lows against the dollar James Holbrooks points out that the people are starving. The government has gone full-on authoritarian, and now desperate human beings are dying in the streets.  From an Associated Press report on Friday: “Authorities in Venezuela say 12 people were killed overnight following looting and violence in the South American nation’s capital amid a spiraling political crisis.” Continuing, the report further highlighted the gravity of the situation: “Most of the deaths took pl...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Beware Of Fake Stock News In The Financial Markets

    The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is taking legal action against 27 individuals and several companies over hundreds of fake “impartial” blog posts that appeared on well-known financial websites. In many cases- about 250 articles- the bloggers were secretly paid to write bullish articles to promote mainly small biotech stocks such as Lion Biopharma (LBIO), Arch Therapeutics (ARTH), Galena Biopharma (GALE) and Oncosec Medical (ONCS). “This is different from the fraud cases that you usually see us bring,” said Stephanie Avakian, acting director of the SEC enforcement division. “Here, we allege that the fraud was in presen...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Managing The Chaos – Investing Vs. Gambling

    How does one invest amid the slew of palm sweating, teeth grinding headlines of Syria, North Korea, Brexit, expanding populism, Trumpcare, French candidate Marine Le Pen and a potential government shutdown? Facing a persistent mountain of worries can seem daunting to many. With so many seemingly uncontrollable factors impacting short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and equity markets, it begs the question whether investing is a game of luck (gambling) or a game of skill? The short answer is…it depends. Professional gambler Alvin “Titanic” Thompson captured the essence when someone asked him whether poker was a game of chanc...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Dollar Bracing For French Election, Trump Tax Plan, GDP Data

    Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral US Dollar focused on 1Q GDP data amid slowdown fears Risk-positive French election outcome to boost greenback Tax reform bill to put “Trump trade” back in the spotlight The US Dollar fell for a second consecutive week as the Fed rate hike outlook continued to deteriorate. Geopolitical jitters are almost certainly a big part of that story, even if the narrative has somewhat shifted from US tensions with Russia and North Korea to EU politics. Homegrown factors have also emerged however amid growing worries about slowing economic growth. An ominous picture is painted by the closely watched G...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Wall Street And Bear Scat

    As seen in the Bear’s Eye View (BEV) chart below, the last all-time high for the Dow Jones happened on March 1. Since then however, it’s been slowly deflating. The post-election run up in the Dow Jones (enclosed in the Red Circle) was an excellent advance; one of the best in the post March 2009 market. So we shouldn’t begrudge the bulls should they now take a rest before their next upward assault on the stock market, which I’m sure they are planning. However, some plans never get past their conception stage. I like this BEV chart for the Dow Jones. It displays each advance and percentage decline of the Dow from its 09 March 2009 botto...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Target2 And Secret Bailouts: Will Germany Be Forced Into A Fiscal Union With Rest Of Eurozone?

    Project Syndicate writer, Hans-Werner Sinn, explains why the ECB’s asset purchases and Target2 imbalances constitute “Europe’s Secret Bailout”. Under the ECB’s QE program, which started in March 2015, eurozone members’ central banks buy private market securities for €1.74 trillion ($1.84 trillion), with more than €1.4 trillion to be used to purchase their own countries’ government debt. The QE program seems to be symmetrical because each central bank repurchases its own government debt in proportion to the size of the country. But it does not have a symmetrical effect, because government debt from southern European countries...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    GBP/USD Forecast April 24-28

    GBP/USD enjoyed its strongest weekly gain in 2017, gaining 270 points. The pair closed the week at the 1.28 level. This week’s key event is Preliminary GDP. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.   The pound jumped sharply as Prime Minister May shocked the markets by calling a snap election to be held June 8. May is expected to increase the Conservatives’ majority in parliament. In the US, construction figures were mixed and manufacturing and employment numbers missed their estimates. Updates: GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Rightmove ...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Liquidity Supernova And The Big Ugly Flaw

    April 21 – Reuters (Vikram Subhedar): “The $1 trillion of financial assets that central banks in Europe and Japan have bought so far this year is the best explanation for the gains seen in global stocks and bonds despite lingering political risks, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday. If the current pace of central bank buying, dubbed the ‘liquidity supernova’ by BAML, continues through the year, 2017 would record their largest financial asset purchases in a decade…” From the report authored by BofA Merrill’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett: “The $1 trillion flow that conquers all… One flow that matters...
    On April 23, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Trump’s Steel Import Probe: U.S. Steel Over Reliance?

    Domestic steel maker United States Steel and its foreign rival Reliance Steel are scheduled to report first-quarter earnings next week. Both companies are expected to come up with stellar performances. Which of these will come out ahead? Such a comparison comes into sharp focus considering Trump’s latest policy imperative: steel imports. Trump Probe Bolster Steel Stocks After being stuck in a long rut, steel stocks rebounded yesterday. The industry’s rebound was backed by President Trump’s announcement of an investigation into whether cheap steel imports from China and other nations are hurting our national security. President Trump sai...
    On April 23, 2017 / By