Traders are watching the French presidential elections with increased interest. There is growing concern that a shock result could send the Eurozone into a tailspin. The GBP/EUR pair is currently trending marginally higher; however, the French election has resulted in a dramatic weakening of the EUR/GBP in 2017. The EUR/USD pair has also appreciated somewhat, although dollar weakness has kept the currency pair in a relatively tight trading range for much of the year. The stability of the Eurozone hinges on the outcome of the French presidential elections. Anything that upsets the applecart, what with a Brexit already underway, will be devasta...
I have been in the “money game” for a long time starting with a bank just prior to the crash of 1987. I make this point only to say that I have seen several full market cycles in my life, and my perspectives are based on experience rather than theory. In 1999, there was a media personality who berated investors for paying fees to investment advisors/stock brokers when it was clear that ETF’s were the only way to go. His mantra was simply: “Why pay someone to underperform the indexes?” After the “Dot.com” crash in 2000, he was no longer on the air. By the time the markets began to soar in 2007, there was a whole universe of E...
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index). Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year’s all-time high: Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral Long-term outlook (next year): neutral The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and 0.0% on Friday, extending their short-term consolidation, as investors awaited quart...
Well, it’s 3 in the morning and I’m finally back in San Francisco. I am NOT looking forward to Monday. Very little sleep and a roaring market is not my cup of tea. In any case, although I’m the last guy who wants to mention this, we’ve got a bullish breakout on our hands. It’s a pennant. I’ll see you later on Monday....
Risk is definitely on this morning as European shares soar, led by French stocks and a new record high in Germany’s DAX, after a “French relief rally” in which the first round of the country’s presidential elections prompted investors to bet that establishment candidate Emmanuel Macron will win a runoff vote next month, and who is seen as a 61% to 39% favorite to defeat Le Pen according to the latest just released Opinionway poll. For those who may have missed yesterday’s events, here is a quick recap from DB: The fact that Macron and Le Pen have made it through to the second round was in line with the most likely sc...
The results of the first round of the French election spurred a dramatic response in the capital markets. Our thesis that there is no populist-nationalist wave sweeping the world is supported by the previous results in Austria, the Netherlands, and now France. The AfD in Germany is wilting in the polls, and there too the center will hold. The populist-nationalist wave seems a result of the Anglo-American two-party system in which the center-right party adopted part of the populist-nationalist platform. The euro gapped higher in pre-Pacific trading. It had finished the week in North America a little below $1.0730 and jumped to almos...
The US equity market scored its first weekly advance this month, delivering the top performance in April’s third week among the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) increased 1.1% for the five trading days through Apr. 21, edging out the number-two performer: US real estate investment trusts via Vanguard REIT (VNQ), which gained 1.0%. VNQ’s gain, by the way, marks the fund’s sixth straight weekly advance. Last week’s big loser: broadly defined commodities. iPath Bloomberg Commodity (DJP) slumped 3.2%, the biggest weekly setback since mid-March. The generally bullish tone ...
In France, Emmanuel Macron (independent) and Marine Le Pen (Far right) have come out as the two leading candidates of the first round of the presidential elections. The second round will take place on May 7th with Polls indicating that pro-Euro Macron will prevail. With the market now partially relieved that FREXIT will not happen due to polls indicating that anti Euro Le pen will lose on May 7th, the Euro and stocks surged last night. EUR/USD soared to 1.09 levels (5 months high) from 1.07 following the results of the French Presidential election. Even a bigger winner, EUR/JPY climbed 400 pips. EUR/GBP jumped to the 0.85 level – close to...
The next stock valuation is about a stock I recently mentioned in my watch list. It will be about Qualcomm (QCOM) and I just want to give you more details why I am positive about buying some shares in the near future. Company Overview Qualcomm Incorporated is a semiconductor company that designs, and manufactures digital wireless telecommunications products and services. The company operates through the following segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, Qualcomm Technology Licensing, Qualcomm Wireless & Internet, and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives. Qualcomm was founded in 1985, and is headquartered in San Diego, CA. Qualcomm’s success is ...
Besides of the Bund observations I want to share some notes on FDAX as well. The weekly perspective is somewhat one-time framing lower and the daily seem to have found some support after the inside day on Wednesday. Maybe we will see some gap open as EUR/USD (actually, only saw it on USD/JPY and thought to look up the EUR, too) opened with a huge gap up. I will observe the development of this. Moving forward to the volume profiles I would like to point out a low volume area which was supportive for the week (please see figure). The weekly profile shape is kind of balanced. Let’s see where the market will open and go with that. Open above d...