Politics (with a side of War and Terror) are heavily interwoven with stock markets these days (says Captain Obvious). Markets came under pressure with the Trump/Republican Healthcare reform follies and then Tomahawks, MOAB and terror. Then last week Mnuchin jawboned tax reform and Trump tweeted it. A fantastic package is on the way! This morning we have the Le Pen/Macron runoff hype, which I supposed means something (though I’m not sure what). Whatever it means, it’s bullish. But it’s only bullish because the market was either going to break consolidation (and the angst of the last several weeks) to the upside or renew its cor...
Early Market Talk Update following French vote: Following the result of the first round vote within France the Asian exchanges were perplexed. One clear message that has been portrayed is that the safe-haven demand has vanished but has yet to reveal risk demand. A lot of what we have seen in the first 12 hours of trading is that hedged positions are unwinding but probably a little too early for fresh money to play. Many players in the Asian market replaced yen with peripheral notes which obviously hit the $/Yen cross. From the highs 108’s seen on Friday we are above 110 with much trade around the mid 110 levels, a move over 1%. The Euro obv...
Starting in the 4Q16, survey data released by Markit saw a pronounced improvement in sentiment. This was accompanied by the UK’s surprising post-Brexit growth, Canada’s continued exit from its shallow recession, stronger 4Q16 Chinese numbers and nuanced but noticeable improvement in numbers from Japan. The IMF acknowledges these improving numbers in their latest global economic forecasts. At the highest level, Y/Y GDP for some of the largest economic regions has been moderate but consistent: Since the 2Q13, Y/Y GDP growth for UK, EU, Canada and Japan has been consistently positive (although perhaps aggravatingly slow). The IMF report ma...
Share markets in India finished on a strong footing tracking positive trend in global markets after the market’s favored candidate, Emmanuel Macron, won the first round of the French presidential election. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex closed higher by 291 points, whereas the NSE Nifty finished higher by 99 points. The S&P BSE Midcap ended up by 1% while the S&P BSE Small Cap Index ended up by 0.8%. Among the BSE sectoral indices, only healthcare sector witnessed selling pressure. Gains were largely seen in stocks from realty sector and capital goods sector. ACC Ltd share price gained as much as 7.4% to reac...
The final tally was Macron 23.75%, Le Pen 21.53% and to say markets are relieved would be an understatement. One peculiar thing is that it seems completely lost on everyone that Marine Le Pen did indeed make the second round. So it’s not exactly like populism just fell flat in Sunday’s vote. Rather, the enthusiasm seems to stem from the fact that polling is “great again.” Apparently, Brexit and Trump didn’t completely antiquate the pollsters and their methods and if that holds, then Macron will become President. Here’s how one former FX trader put it earlier this morning: The pollsters won the first round of the French presidenti...
Voters in France rebuked traditional mainstream parties on Sunday by endorsing independent Emmanuel Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen, setting the stage for a high-stakes run-off vote in two weeks’ time. With nearly 90% of the votes declared, Macron held roughly 24% of the popular vote. Le Pen was a close second at nearly 22%. On Friday EURUSD closed at 1.07274. Following the election results, the pair opened on Monday at 1.09134, during the Asian session but has since retraced some of its gains. The Euro, however, continues to be on a bullish run. Republican Francois Fillon and communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon were Nos. 3 ...
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have many benefits that have caused them to expand in terms of assets and offerings over the past decade. In the United States alone, the ETF industry has grown to over $2.7 trillion in assets.1 Not only are ETFs typically low cost and extremely transparent, a key characteristic and an attractive feature is their tax efficiency. Capital Gains Let’s start from the beginning. Capital gains taxes can occur in two ways. The first is on an individual level, when one sells an ETF or a mutual fund at a gain in a taxable account. For example, if an investor purchased an ETF for $25 and later sold it for $40, he or she...
The Federal Reserve is subject to a dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment. Although the unemployment rate is the most commonly reported labor market statistic, since the end of the great recession analysts have correctly observed there are several other methods of measuring the labor market’s health. Additionally, over the last several years, political commentators have seized on the drop in the labor force participation rate as evidence that something is wrong with the labor market. But research available on the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s website indicates this alternate labor market measure is predominantly falling for rea...
And so the politicians in Europe and Brussels breathe an audible collective sigh of relief as their gold-plated pensions and executive perks look set to be safe for a little while longer, as the single currency lurches and stumbles its way through another potential crisis which now appears to have been diverted. Markets of course remain in a febrile state this morning with strong gapped up price action and sharp moves higher across euro pairs. But as always, remember gaps are there to be filled, and the simplest way to remove such gaps from the daily charts is to scale out to the slower timeframes, which then provide a more balanced perspecti...