Earlier today we noted the “big league” compression in the all-important OAT-bund spread, the market’s preferred gauge of French political risk and thus, a go-to measure of EMU breakup risk. Here’s the 10Y spread: And the 2Y spread: Finally, here’s Bloomberg’s technical analyst Sejul Gokal on why this matters: OAT Futures and ‘Le Spread’ Euphoria May Risk Fading at 200-DMA Notable moves in OAT market have sent futures and France-Germany 10-year yield spread near key equilibrium levels that may drive tactical reversal in post-French vote reaction, Bloomberg technical analyst Sejul Gokal writes. OAT1 topside gap and high at 14...
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) caught some very bullish notes this morning from analysts at Wedbush, who see the stock rising an incredible amount over the next year....
There is nothing like uncertainty and speculation to prove everyone wrong! What am I talking about? The bond market is not playing along with the Fed’s statements about a stronger economy. In short, the Fed needs to watch the bond yield curve before any more interest rate hikes are considered. Copyright: rungaroon / 123RF Stock Photo To understand why let’s go back about a month to the last Fed meeting when the committee raised the Fed funds rate. This was the third hike in about 15 months, and it only raised the rate to 0.75%. A normalized interest rate policy has this rate around 3%, so for all intents and purposes, the Fed is still ac...
One of the most important jobs of a market participant is risk management. If you’re unable to identify when your position is wrong, then you shouldn’t be entering a position, to begin with. Would we ever enter a crowded room without identifying where the exits are? I don’t think so. We have the same responsibility when entering a new position. At 360 Investment Research, when we enter a new position, we identify risk (and potential reward) by looking left. By looking left on a price chart, we can identify previous changes in supply and demand, which can give clues on where demand or support could appear. In a previous post, we used t...
Disney (DIS) is the world’s largest entertainment company with a market capitalization of ~$183 billion. The company is famous for its well-known characters like Mickey Mouse & Donald Duck, as well as the Star Wars and Marvel cinematic franchises. Disney also owns ESPN, the predominant television channel for professional sports. Lately, Disney’s Media Networks segment (which houses ESPN) has been under pressure because of declining subscriber numbers. The consumer trend of cord-cutting (reducing or eliminating cable subscriptions to save money) has impacted ESPN and resulted in some interesting headlines: Barron’s: Is It Time for D...
Written by StockNews.com CR Bard Inc. (NYSE: BCR) has agreed to be acquired by fellow medical devices giant Becton Dickinson and Co. (NYSE: BDX) for $24 billion in cash and stock. The merger entails that BCR shareholders will receive $222.93 in cash and 0.5077 shares of BDX stock per Bard share. The total value of the deal is $317.00 per Bard common share, which is a 25% premium over the stock’s Friday closing price of $253.07. After the deal closes, Bard shareholders will own about 15% of the combined company. Tim Ring, Bard’s chairman and chief executive officer, said via press release: “We are confident that this combination will ...
A number of steel companies are among a barrage of stocks that are slated to report their quarterly numbers on Apr 25.As per the Zacks Industry classification, the steel industry is grouped under the broader Basic Materials sector. Based on the Earnings Preview as of Apr 21, 15% of the sector participants on the S&P 500 index have reported their quarterly numbers. Earnings for these companies increased by a solid 41.9% from the same period last year on 12.9% higher revenues. The Basic Materials sector is one of the only three sectors that are projected to witness double-digit earnings growth in the first quarter. Overall earnings for th...
A standard chart that we use to help confirm the overall market trend is the Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) chart. Momentum Factor ETF is an investment that seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. large- and mid-capitalization stocks exhibiting relatively higher price momentum. This type of momentum fund is considered a reliable proxy for the overall stock market trend. We prefer to use the Heikin-Ashi format to display the Momentum Factor ETF. Heikin-Ashi candlestick charts are designed to filter out volatility in an effort to better capture the true trend. Last week’s comment “…the Momentum Factor ETF remains st...
After 51 consecutive months, the dead CAT spell is finally over. On Monday, traditionally just ahead of earnings, Caterpillar reported that in March its world retail sales rose 1% Y/Y, the first increase since November 2012. The reason: Asia/Pacific, also known as China, which saw a 46% surge in total machine sales, up from 39% last month, and the best Asian performance going all the way back to April 2011. Aside from China, however, the drought remained as every other region posted a decline in annual sales, led by Latin America (down 25%), North America (down 13%) and EAME (down 3%). Looking at a breakdown of what kinds of machines drove ...
Market breaks out of bull flag on French Election Results. Not a bad way to start your week, if you are long on the market (and yes, I am long on the market). It all goes back to what I have been saying in these morning writeups, and that is, the market has been far too dull for a strong short conviction. The bears have, no doubt, had plenty of opportunity to sell this market off, but each time they are given the opportunity, they lack the willingness to push the market lower. Today could be interesting though, because often times when you have a big gap on Sunday night, it often leads to a fade throughout the trading day. More so with gaps...