Stock Market Forecast Big Picture: The broad stock market is working through a more complex corrective price pattern. My recent forecast, as displayed in the chart below, indicates that the next leg up is toward 2500.The market may be about to start a larger A-B-C correction to test the 2300 level to fully cleanse itself, before starting the next leg up. But overall, the SPX is very bullish long-term. Investors are among the most pessimistic they have been in 7 years!Over the past four weeks, this sentiment is nearing the lowest of all readings of the past 30 years. If it declines a bit further, it will suggest future returns of the SPX...
Tax Day 2017 has passed for individual taxpayers, but America’s tax bill is still due, and it’s a big one. Americans will collectively pay close to $1 trillion more on taxes than will be spent on essentials like food, clothing, and housing combined. Taxpayers won’t pay off this year’s local, state, and federal tax burden totaling $5.1 trillion until April 23, or as the Tax Foundation calls it, Tax Freedom Day. That day, calculated annually, represents how long Americans work to pay local, state, and federal taxes for the year. In 2017, it will take 113 days for taxpayers to pay the country’s tax burden, which includes $1.5 trillio...
The markets appear giddy today over the election prospects of Emanuel Macron in France. Equities are up along with bond yields. Gold is down. The day is still young though. Macron won round one of the French election yesterday and will square off against Marine Le Pen in round two on May 7. He is widely expected to win round two, becoming the next president of France. Policy Advancement Can Macron Save the World? Save France? Let’s phrase this a different way. Can Macron advance his policies? I would ask the same question if Marine Le Pen were expected to win. Macron will not have a mandate. Neither would Le Pen if she were to win. Certa...
Wall Street and our central bank are in for a rude awakening very soon.! The idea that the US economy is on stable footing and about to experience a surge in growth is ridiculous. Hence, the consensus that the Fed can normalize interest rates and its balance sheet is nothing short of a bad joke… and it’s on them. For starters, the government’s fiscal deficit for the month of March came in at $176.2 billion, which means the deficit 6 months into fiscal 2017 is $526.9 billion and running 15% over last year. If not for the calendar timing of receipts and payments, our government’s deficit would be a year-to-date $564.0 billion or 23%...
If everything’s so awesome, why are Treasuries so bid? Heavy demand for Treasuries this morning after two notable data disappointments… Banks are ripping higher (though some context below may help), even as bond yields roll over… And despite the collapse in VIX, stocks are flat since the open… Stocks remain ebulient…...
AUD/USD looks to be trading in a bigger three wave recovery, and current bullish moment may be final wave C. As such upside may be limited around the Fibonacci ratio of 100.0, from where a new reversal may follow. AUD/USD, 1H...
Macron topped the first round of the French elections and the euro rallied. We described the levels to watch out for. Here are two opinions Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: EUR/USD: ‘The Trend Has Turned’ – SocGen Societe Generale FX Strategy Research discusses the EUR outlook after the market-friendly outcome for the first round of the French elections. Looking at yield differentials as a guide to where EUR/USD is headed, SocGen notes that the low in EUR/USD came when real yields were down at -120bp in Germany, and +50bp in the US and that gap narrowed to 105bp by the end of last week. If this gap continues to tighten furt...
from the St Louis Fed — this post authored by Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, Economist, and Maria A. Arias, Senior Research Associate Although often associated with developing countries, illicit activities or undocumented workers, the informal labor market is much broader than many would imagine. In fact, people from all walks of life participate in a wide array of legitimate business ventures that are part of the informal economy. So, how big is the U.S.’s informal labor market, and who participates in it? What Is the Informal Labor Market? There is no unique definition for informal employment. However, a generally accepted way to def...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Global markets appear to be in sigh of relief mode this morning in response to the preliminary round of the French election. Pro-growth, pro-EU, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron emerged as the early leader as both of France’s establishment parties were eliminated in the first round of voting. Macron will face far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. But with Macron taking the early lead in the polls, the hope is that stability in the EU and growth for France will become the themes of the day. Now let’s move on to an objective review the key market models and indicators. The ...
According to a recent report by ReportsnReports, the worldwide market for Internet of Things (IoT) was worth $16.3 billion in 2016. Touted to be the next Industrial Revolution, the IoT market is expected to reach $185.9 billion in 2023. C3 IoT, a market leader in the space, has recently joined the Billion Dollar Unicorn Club. C3 IoT’s Journey Redwood City, CA-based C3 IoT was originally founded in 2009 as C3 Energy by Tom Siebel, former Oracle Executive and founder of CRM company Siebel Systems, which went public and was acquired by Oracle for $5.85 billion in 2006. C3 Energy provided data analytics for smart electric grids, but soon large...