About two months ago I wrote about Emmanuel Macron as a risk, rather than a saviour. Today, following his 1st round presidential victory in France, I feel even more that he represents a risk that is unappreciated. Here’s why. As I put in March, “Macron as President is a ‘bad’ outcome for stability since he has no political base. his election would create uncertainty because it would make the likelihood of a weak presidency greater.” And I what I meant by that is that Macron has no MPs to support him and his legislative agenda. If his reformist agenda is to be successful, he needs legislative support. And that’s hard to get when y...
The US markets gapped up today and the VIX made a big gap down. I am not buying into this move today. Some quick comments on the USD, gold and silver is also included in this market wrap. After looking at the silver chart I was a little surprised at my outlook considering how it has been struggling recently. (Audio length 00:07:14)...
The Chart of the Day belongs to IHS Markit (INFO). I found the business information stock by using Barchart to sort today’s All Time High list first for the most frequent number of new highs in the last month, then again for technical buy signals of 80% or more. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy in 3/28 the stock gained 5.80%. IHS Markit Ltd. provides information, analytics and solutions to customers. It serves business, finance and government. IHS Markit Ltd., formerly known as Markit Ltd., is based in London, United Kingdom. The status of Barchart’s Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Ba...
Based on the hourly view, oil futures have moved down from the 53.76 high in a five-wave impulse pattern. We have a near-term extension target to 48.69; but we are close. So a corrective rally may be due. We have overlaid CAD/USD so you can see the continued correlation holding… oil down CAD down…...
The Bretton Woods system was intentionally set up to funnel monetary convertibility through official channels. The primary characteristic of any true gold standard is that any person who wishes can change paper claims into hard money. It was as much true in any one country as between those bound by the same legal framework (property). What might differ were the standards for satisfying those claims (“good delivery” wasn’t a uniform idea, which is why gold swaps first arose), but overall people could access gold on an individual basis. Blaming the people for the Great Depression, economists saw no need to replicate the error (as they saw...
The next two weeks in France… According to the bookies, it’s a done deal… Stocks Up, Oil Down So stocks soared… Trannies best on the day but Nasdaq hit a new record high, desperately trying to tag 6,000… and legged higher in the last hour as machines misinterpreted Le Pen stepping down as head of the National Front as some bullish factor for markets (that was the big volume spike) which hit about 15 mins after WSJ reported Trump chatter of a 15% tax rate… With VIX slammed back to a 10 handle… But that did nothing for the S&P… And VIX crashed most since Aug 2011 (more than TrumpR...
Donald Trump’s tweet on Saturday for plans of a “big” tax reform announcement on Wednesday has probably been overshadowed by Sunday’s event. The first round victory for Macron and going head to head with Le Pen certainly propelled Europe, but may be questionable how much of an effect it had away from President Trumps tweet. Much had been credited to the Trump rally this year but complacency started to build so the market is desperate for details. Headlines are going to be key as we approach the 100 days (29th April) and potential US government shutdown. Having seen a 200+ points rally in the first few minutes of cash trading, then...
As you most probably have heard the French elections settled on the ‘base case’ candidates, Le Pen and Marchon. None of the old line, established parties made the cut. Le Pen is the hard nationalist right and anti-EU. Macron appears to be a political noveau, and a kind of Obama like centrist figure with a very friendly disposition to the status quo. And so there was celebration on Wall St, since Macron is expected to roundly defeat the radical right’s Le Pen. And thereby the European Union will be preserved from the contagion of Brexit. Gold and silver were smashed overnight. Interestingly enough silver gained all of its l...
While 2017 got off to a great start for investors in global equities, we believe that it is important for investors to take note of some potential key areas of changing market leadership that started to take form during the 1st quarter. These include, but are not limited to, the following: Domestic Equities – To – International Equities Developed Market Equities – To – Emerging Market Equities Value – To – Growth Small Cap – To – Large Cap Energy-based Commodities – To – Metals-based Commodities Financials/Energy/Telecom – To – Technology/Health Care/Consumer Discretionary While we remain optimistic about t...