After yesterday’s violent gap up in stocks across the globe in response to the “expected” outcome from the French election, today the risk on sentiment has continued if to a lesser extent, with stocks in Europe, Asia all rising while S&P futures point to a higher open. Yen, gold decline, while the euro traded as high as 1.09 this morning before fading some gains; oil is up modestly. While today’s surge may have been more muted, world stocks hit a new record high on Tuesday, with investors still cheering Macron’s victory in the first round of the French presidential election, supported by speculation about U.S...
The US dollar is again at the fulcrum of the foreign exchange market. The dollar-bloc currencies are under pressure, along with the Japanese yen, while the European complex is posting modest gains. The euro is consolidating in the half cent below $1.09. Yesterday’s marked up in early Asia saw the euro complete the 61.8% retracement of the losses since the US election, which was found near $1.0935. Recall that the euro was trading around $1.1075 early last November. The $1.0980 area corresponds with a 50% retracement of the euro’s decline from last year’s high (in May near $1.1615). The 100-week moving average ...
The very strong relief rally following the French elections caused stock markets globally to climb upwards. The election outcome was in line with polls, with pro European Candidate Macron probably gaining the Presidency with a 60% chance on May 7th. With political uncertainty related to the French presidential election cleared (for now at least), focus is likely to turn to the US, where President Trump has announced that he will present his tax plans on Wednesday. Markets will also focus on Thursday’s ECB meeting. The US session saw the S&P 500 and Dow Jones close with gains of over 1%. More impressively, the French CAC40 gained 4...
With the first round of the French election in the rearview mirror, there are clear winners and losers. With Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen facing the chosen two to face off in a May 7 election, Morgan Stanley says the outcome will be benign: markets will win.It will be interesting to see if Horseman Capital Management’s Stephen Roberts, who boldly proclaimed before the election that the result won’t matter and recommended buying European stocks despite election concerns several weeks ago listened to his own advice. Morgan Stanley’s Grahm Secker is on the list of those who recommended buying in Europe in March. Now, this analyst al...
Crude oil prices continued to decline, dropping to the lowest level in a month. A standout catalyst explaining intraday losses was not readily apparent but the broader narrative making the rounds on the newswires pointed to concerns about the inability of OPEC output cuts to boost prices in the face of swelling swing supply. Sellers’ resolve will be tested as API inventory flow data crosses the wires in the hours ahead. Official EIA figures due the following day are expected to show a 1.6 million barrel drawdown. An API number that falls short of that may produce another down day whereas a larger outflow may offer prices a lifeline. Gol...
Even as the US “brick and mortar” retail industry is in a tailspin of historic proportions, its ad spending must be better than ever, because on Monday Google parent Alphabet closed up 2.3%, hitting a new record high, and as Bloomberg pointed out first, the company’s market value crossed above $600 billion for the first time ever. Investors chose not to wait for GOOGL earnings due later this week, and bought up shares ahead of the announcement driven by positive analyst comments ahead of 1Q results on April 27 and as the S&P North American tech index rose 1.4% with broader markets rallying. Whether ad spend, and earnings...
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD is moving sideways and respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level of wave 2 (green). A bullish break could see price build an extension towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level. 1 hour The EUR/USD bounced at the 50% Fibonacci support level and most likely in a wave 4 (pink) correction. A break above the resistance (red) could price continue with a wave 5 (pink) where a break below support (blue) could indicate a larger bearish retracement. GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD continues to build a bull flag chart pattern (red/blue lines). A break above it could see price challenge the next Fibonacci level. 1 hour The GBP/USD ret...
Semiconductor stocks were the star performers of the broader technology space in 2016 thanks to upbeat earnings, consolidation activities and innovative technologies. Areas like autonomous cars, 3D printers, fitness devices and IoT fueled growth in the sector, offsetting the otherwise-saturating businesses like PCs and smartphones. As a result, semiconductor ETFs including VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH – Free Report) , iShares PHLX Semiconductor (SOXX – Free Report) and PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductors ETF (PSI – Free Report) advanced about 43.6%, 46.9% and 62.2%, respectively, in the last one year (a...
Short-term Elliott Wave view in USDCAD suggests the decline to 1.322 ended Intermediate wave (X). Up from there, the pair is showing 5 waves impulse structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at 1.3338, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1.3258, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1.3525, and Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1.3406. Near term focus is on 1.3596 – 1.364 area to complete Minutte wave (v) and also Minute wave ((a)). The next push higher towards above target should end the cycle from 4/13 low, after which the pair should pullback in Minute wave ((b)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 4/13 low before turning higher again. We don’t like ...
After opening the day on a positive note, share markets in India have continued the momentum and are trading comfortably above the dotted line. All sectoral indices are trading on a positive note. Stocks in the energy sector and stocks in the capital goods sector are leading the gains. The BSE Sensex is trading up by 222 points (up 0.8%), and the NSE Nifty is trading up by 68 points (up 0.7%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 1%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.9%. The rupee is trading at 64.24 to the US$. In news from stocks in the IT sector. IT industry body Nasscom hit back against the US ad...