There is one variable that explains the euro movement better than any other single variable we have found. The US-Germany two-year interest rate differential continues to be highly correlated with the euro-dollar exchange rate. Specifically, the percent change in the differential (or swap rate) and the percent change in the euro have a 0.56 correlation over the past 60 days. It is roughly the same over the past 30 sessions.Both are at near multi-year extremes. On a purely directional basis, the correlation is even greater (~0.66). It makes sense then to look at the drivers of the interest rate differential to back into a view of the euro. T...
Elliott Wave Theory: Is Elliott’s Theory a system in itself? As many traders know, The Elliott wave Theory is a form of technical analysis that finance traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors. Elliott’s Theory was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott and published in 1938 in the book The Wave Principle. The Theory states that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements ...
Share markets in India finished on a strong footing on positive global cues, strengthening of rupee, healthy corporate earnings and FII inflows into the market. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex closed higher by 190 points, whereas the NSE Nifty finished higher by 45 points. The S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Small Cap Index ended down by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. Among the BSE sectoral indices, realty sector and information technology sector witnessed the selling pressure. Gains were largely seen in stocks from FMCG sector, automobile sector and banking sector. Asian equity markets finished broadly higher today following...
The landscape seems to be changing within the Biotech sphere. Over the course of the last 6 months we have seen numerous US politicians come out against price gouging activities within the sector, with many taking a general stance that pricing is perhaps too high. Certainly Hillary Clinton was vocal on the matter (Bernie Sanders still is), and while we have heard rumblings from President Trump’s administration we have heard nothing concrete in terms of a plan to tackle the issue. Until recently that is. His plan is to slip new legislature on drug pricing into his replacement policy for Obamacare, and since we are all now keenly aware that...
On Tuesday, the ECB again exhibited its penchant for leaking market-moving information about monetary policy to Reuters when three unnamed sources tipped a hawkish lean in June. To be sure, that’s not entirely surprising. With “batshit populist president” risk now seemingly off the table in France thanks to Emmanuel Macron’s daunting lead in the polls ahead of next month’s runoff, Draghi and co. are running out of excuses when it comes to delaying policy normalization (well, unless of course you think core inflation matters). Indeed, Thursday’s ECB meeting will be eyed closely for any hint of hawkishness and all of the speculation...
Boeing (BA) and Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ) released their latest earnings reports before opening bell this morning. Boeing posted adjusted earnings of $2.01 per share on $21 billion in revenue, while Wall Street had been looking for earnings of $1.91 per share and $21.3 billion in sales. In last year’s first quarter, the airplane manufacturer reported $22.6 billion in revenue. Nasdaq OMX Group reported non-GAAP earnings of $1.10 per share on $583 million in net revenues, representing a 21% increase in non-GAAP earnings per share and a 9% increase in net revenues. Analysts had been expecting $1.06 per share and $594.7 million. Boeing shares fall kwlu...
Written by Jamie Dutta “Canada has made business for our dairy farmers in Wisconsin and other border states very difficult. We will not stand for this. Watch!” The first 100 days of the Trump Presidency ends this Saturday and it seems we are back to monitoring @realDonaldTrump tweets once again. After the above Trump volley, the Canadian dollar, aka the ‘loonie’ and other commodity currencies too, tanked hitting key levels across the board. This escalation of tariff wars and protectionism had gone quiet over the past weeks but this tweet has certainly roiled currency markets with the potential for increased volatility ahead. Aside ...