I add this, that rational ability without education has more often raised a man to glory and virtue, than education without natural ability. Marcus T. Cicero For the past few years much the angst of many experts we have consistently stated that the markets were not ready to crash. From late 2016 to early 2017, many former Bulls who predicted the direction of this market quite well, suddenly decided that the stock market was ready to crash. We, however, begged to differ, and we provided two very simple reasons for our stance Emotions drive the markets: The masses have remained nervous throughout this bull run; no bull market has ever ended whe...
I’ve periodically commented in this column that the oil industry’s new normal is one in which oil prices – having briefly cratered at below US$27 in February 2016 – have been drifting in the US$50 range since last October. The tough part of that story is that it’s unlikely to change. World-wide, for every barrel of oil we consume, we discover two. The chart above shows the commodity’s inconclusive movements over the last year. This is a difficult market to trade, and it’s one in which you have to be flexible. In the petroleum-related sector, this column has covered Yangarra Energy YNG.TO, which has more than doubled. I have also...
When the Central Banks finally lose control of propping up the markets, will the big money be made in owning gold, silver or crypto-currencies? This is the question many investors who are focused on “alternative assets”, outside the typical mainstream stock, bond and real estate markets, are asking. Most investors who have been concerned about the massively inflated bubble markets and the greatest financial Ponzi scheme in history, have been investing in gold and silver. However, a new kid on the block, called Bitcoin and the other crypto-currencies, have gained a lot of attention due to the huge increase in their prices over the past few...
The U.S. Energy Department’s inventory release showed that crude stockpiles declined for the eighth straight week, continuing to drag down the overall surplus. Moreover, gasoline inventories dropped sharply ahead of the start to the summer driving season and refiners processed a record amount of crude. While these data sets might be considered as bullish, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures edged up a mere 0.1% (or 4 cents) to $48.36 per barrel Thursday. Prices were kept in check by the continued rise in domestic production thanks to soaring shale output. The Trump administration’s decision to opt out of the Paris climate chan...
As you most likely have heard by now, the Non-Farm Payrolls Report For May came in quite shockingly low. I had to crack up at one remark this morning that the jobs number is so low because we are at full employment, and therefore there are not any more jobs to be had or people to take them. Never mind the Labor Participation Rate which is still falling and awful, and average wages which are sluggish. But nevertheless stocks rallied as expectations of the Fed’s raising rates this year more than once or twice have fallen dramatically on the lack of inflation and jobs. And because of that, the dollar tumbled and gold and silver caught a b...
U.S. jobs numbers for May were nearly 50,000 under consensus. Does that make a rate hike by the Fed less likely? In this week’s episode, host Rob Cittadini, regional director, consultant relations, was joined by our Director of Client Investment Strategies Mark Eibel. The focus was on U.S. jobs and elections in Europe. U.S. nonfarm employers added a seasonally adjusted 138,000 jobs in May. This was significantly below economists’ consensus expectations for an increase of 184,000. Eibel clearly categorized this as a disappointing number. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to approximately 4.3%, but Eibel explained that is...
EUR/UDS reaches a new cycle high of 1.1269, breaking the previous high of 1.1266. Further resistance awaits at 1.13, followed by 1.1360 and 1.1420. Update The pressure continues and the new high is 1.1274. Will we reach the US elections high of 1.13? This remains an open question. Support awaits at 1.1160, followed by 1.1120. It is all due to the terrible US jobs report. The US gained only 138K, worse than expected and with a downwards revision of 66K. Worse off, wage gains remain static at 2.5% y/y. While m/m salaries came out as expected with 0.2%, the number for the previous month was revised to the downside, to 0.2%. Will the numbers ...
I have been writing for many years that they really don’t know what they are doing. I only wish it was that simple. There has been developing another layer or dimension to that condition, a second derivative of stupid, whereby when faced with this now well-established fact the same people, experts and authorities all, they have no frame of reference to figure out what next to do. In other words, they really don’t know what to do when they realize they really don’t know what they are doing. Just over a week ago, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote another blog post for economicsblog.com as a “leader” opining on his own previous th...
The International Trade in Goods and Services report shows the trade deficit widened to $47.6 billion in April from $45.3 billion in March. The April deficit was greater than any Econoday economist’s prediction. In addition, the Census Department revised the March deficit from $43.7 billion from $45.3 billion. The bad news is accelerating for the second quarter. The trade deficit widened in April to $47.6 billion from a revised $45.3 billion in March. This opens the quarter on yet another defensive front. Exports fell 0.3 percent in April to $191.0 billion as a fractional rise in service exports to $64.0 billion could not outmatch a 0.4...
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that retail stocks have been getting pounded in 2017. Just in the last couple of days, the stocks of Michael Kors (KORS) and Express, Inc. (EXPR) have fallen off a cliff. Meanwhile, Amazon.com recently hit $1,000 for the first time and is riding a strong uptrend. The Amazonization of shopping has acted as a major headwind for large traditional retailers. Remember Blockbuster? Your kids sure don’t! Mall REITS have been under assault, and big retailers like Macy’s (M) and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) have seen their shares drop like rocks. Same-store sales metrics are under pressure, inve...