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Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 5 And June 12
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.    ` Forecast Prior Observation Consensus  Week of June 5     June 5     Productivity – Q1 (r) -0.1% -0.6 -0.2  Unit Labor Costs 2.5 3.0 2.6       Factory Orders – April -0.2% 0.2 -0.2       PMI Services Index 54.0 54.0 54.0  ISM Services – May 57.0 57.5 57.0       June 6     JOLTS – April 5.725M 5.743 5.725       June 7     Consumer Credit – April $17.0B 16.4 17.0       June 8     Initial Unemployment Claims 240K 248 241       June 9   Â... -
Finance 0
Gold Miners In 2017 Whipsaw
Ever since 2012’s failure of the ‘QE 3 rally’ in the precious metals it has not been fruitful to micro manage the gold sector, because that failure jump started a savage bear market that would need time to work out the excesses both in the sector’s investor base and in its mining businesses, which had become bloated and inefficient. That’s what bear markets do; they clean out the landscape to make it inhabitable for new investors one day. Here is a weekly chart showing the bear’s kickoff. HUI’s 55 week EMA then became the ball and chain that kept its fate sealed (red arrows) until January of 2016. In anticipating the next bull p... -
Finance 0
E SPX Fast Approaching Final Phase Of Rally
VIX declined to challenge the May 9 low, but did not exceed it. Today’s low qualifies as a retracement low and potentially opens the door for new highs. A rally above mid-Cycle resistance at 15.22 implies that VIX may challenge its Ending Diagonal at 17.50 in the next move.  (Investopedia)  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is often called the “fear gauge,” because market watchers use it to measure expected volatility over the coming 30 days. According to a recent paper by John Griffin and Amin Shams of the University of Texas at Austin, however, the VIX may reflect something besides fear: the authors’ findings sugges... -
Finance 0
Market Thoughts: Trading The Italian Yield Curve
TRADING THE ITALIAN YIELD CURVE I’ll start out today with my most substantive thought. It will constitute most of this note. My methodology here won’t be rigorous; my intention is not to meticulously prove that a given idea is valid or that a trade is worth making, but to collect my thoughts and perhaps pass on some knowledge as I go. So I warn you in advance:Â it will be messy. Now I’m not a FT yield curve trader by any stretch, but BNP’s rates team got me thinking yesterday about some recently ‘naughty’ behavior by the Italian sovereign curve’s shape (i.e. curve shape not moving as one would expect)... -
Finance 0
The Longer-Term Trend – Saturday, June 3
The Longer-Term Outlook The market really turned around this week. It felt significant because a number of important indicators were pointing to trouble in the market. For me, the most important indicator was the elevated level of new 52-week lows which abruptly dropped down to the harmless range on Thursday and Friday. Late in the trading session on Thursday, because of the drop in the level of new 52-week lows, I knew that I was on the wrong side of the market and that I had to quickly quit the bears and join the bulls. The thing that really got people’s attention was the strength in small caps. Last week the small caps looked like th... -
Finance 0
Week In Review: Hong Kong’s Cirina Merges With GRAIL For Early Stage Cancer Diagnostics
Deals and Financings Cirina, a Hong Kong cancer diagnostics company, will merge with GRAIL, a Menlo Park startup, which is also developing non-invasive early-stage molecular cancer diagnostics (see story). GRAIL is a spin-out from Illumina (NSDQ: ILMN) that has raised an impressive $1re capital. The merger combines GRAIL’s deep pockets, which will fund large-scale clinical trials, with one of the scientific leaders in the fiel billion in ventud, Dennis Lo, DM, DPhil, a co-founder of Cirina. He is joined by other co-founders of Cirina, Rossa Chiu and Allen Chan at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and lead investor, Decheng Capital... -
Finance 0
BLS Report Shows 138,000 Jobs Created
The ADP May private sector jobs report on Thursday signaled a great BLS jobs report would come on Friday. Sometimes the ADP report doesn’t indicate how the BLS report will be. This was one of those months as the BLS report was bad across the board. It looked like the online job listings report that I showed in a previous article. That report made it look like a recession was coming. This BLS report was similar as the nirvana of a strong labor market and strong corporate earnings faded away quickly. This report didn’t affect the chances of a rate hike in June or September although there was chatter on CNBC that the third rate hike may be... -
Finance 0
Trending Higher – Saturday, June 3
Another day, another all-time high. Stocks continue to act great and are trending higher. Stocks closed the week on a very strong note which is great to see. While the daily closes matter more than intraday action, the weekly close is even more important and it was a great close to the week. Speaking of great weekly closes, gold also closed the week nice and strong. We’re firing on all cylinders so enjoy it while it lasts. Lovely action on strong volume into weeks end for SPY. No stopping this chart yet. Enjoy your weekend.... -
Finance 0
93% Of All Jobs “Created” Since 2008 Were Added Through The Birth/Death Model
According to the prevailing narrative, job growth in the US, where GDP over the past decade has been on par with that in the 1930s, is one of the otherwise brighter economic indicators in a time when much of the economic data such as capital spending, productivity and especially wage growth (so critical for the Fed’s future plans) has been a chronic disappointment. Today, for example, headlines blast that the US has enjoyed 80 months of continuous jobs growth with unemployment hitting 4.3% – the lowest since 2001. However, there is more to this “strong” number than meets the untrained eye. As our friends at Morningside H... -
Finance 0
EUR: Pillars For EUR/USD Bull Case Have A ‘Shaky Foundation’ – Barclays
EUR/USD made a move to the upside thanks to the terrible Non-Farm Payrolls. Can it continue higher? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research argues that the EUR bull case relies too heavily on three pillars that have ‘shaky foundations’. “Expectations for EURUSD to break out of its range to the topside rely on a combination of some set of the following three arguments: 1) euro area political risks have receded, returning markets’ focus to economic fundamentals? 2) those fundamentals, continuous improvements and upside surprises in euro area economic indicators, have set the stage for a signif...
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