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Finance 0
Oil Price Is Not Dictated By OPEC, Market Conditions And Demand Guide
Fundamental Forecast for US Oil : Neutral Talking Points: OPEC extend production cuts and hints of further belt tightening, the market ignores the news Demand is proving slow to change even as the summer driving season swings in for the North The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate deal is unlikely to change dynamics Jawboning by key crude producers is paradoxically acting to reinforce their waning influence over the direction of the market. So, if OPEC isn’t at the wheel, who is? More elemental forces. Looking back over recent months, there have been a number of overt attempts by the Organization of Petroleum Export... -
Finance 0
Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, June 4
Silver Silver markets initially fell during the week, but turned around to form a massive hammer by the time we closed on Friday. We bounced off the $17 level underneath, and found resistance at the $17.50 level above. By forming a hammer, I suggested that we should continue to go higher, and move above the $17.55 level should send this market looking for the $18 level. I also believe that buying on the pullbacks will be the way to go. GBP/USD The British pound fell initially during the week but found enough support at the 1.2750 level again to bounce and test the 1.29 handle. I believe we are essentially consolidating between the 1.2750 leve... -
Finance 0
Withdrawal From Paris Agreement And Gold
President Trump announced his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord. What does it mean for the gold market? On Thursday, Trump declared that the United States was getting out from the global climate pact: “In order to fulfill my solemn duty to protect America and its citizens, the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord.” The news shocked many people, as the agreement was reached by 195 countries in 2015 in order to limit global warming to 2 degrees or less by 2100, seemingly a glorious aim. We do not deny that the global temperatures have been rising in recent years – just take look at the char... -
Finance 0
E Lack Of Participation From Miners Denotes An Underlying Weakness
Gold and Silver jumped to fresh highs, but miners are lagging significantly; they should be up 3%+. The lack of participation in miners implies that the metal rally is running on fumes. I expect gold and silver to turn lower next week. -GDX- Miners are modestly higher and maintaining the trendline while gold and silver jumped to new highs. The lack of participation from miners denotes an underlying weakness that should lead to lower prices. I’d like to see miners sharply lower early next week, perhaps Monday. I haven’t seen enough to scare me out of DUST or JDST, and I may add to my positions on Monday.... -
Finance 0
Clear Skies For Equities; But What About Gold?
US Equities markets didn’t even blink with the announcement that the United States is now aligned with Syria in rejecting the Paris Climate Accord. How that relates to good business over the longer term seems elusive. This week’s market action demonstrates how equities pricing horizon is all about the next quarter. Hence, all our key indexes closed at all-time highs with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) up over 21% YTD. All key US equity indexes were up with the benchmark S&P 500 (SPY) up 1% on a four-day week. The only thing that seems to make sense since our status as leader of the free world is now in question, is that the US dollar is in re... -
Finance 0
UK Soccer Players Abandon Pound, Demand Payment In Euros
Leading English Premier League football (soccer) stars are demanding to be paid in euros because of the weak value of the Pound, according to Manchester United, the wealthiest club in world football. As The FT reports, speaking at the KPMG Football Benchmark event in London on Wednesday. Cliff Baty, the English Premier League side’s chief financial officer said that last summer’s Brexit vote, which led to a sharp drop in the pound against the euro, had complicated the transfers of big-name players. “It was a bit difficult last year when we were trying to make signings and you had players questioning the value of being paid in sterlin... -
Finance 0
The Anti-Perfect Jobs Condition
The irony of the unemployment rate for the Federal Reserve is that the lower it gets now the bigger the problem it is for officials. It has been up to this year their sole source of economic comfort. Throughout 2015, the Establishment Survey improperly contributed much the same sympathy, but even it no longer resides on the plus side of the official ledger. So many people may have exited the labor force in May that the unemployment rate dropped to just 4.3% even though headline payroll gains were once again lackluster. The last time the ratio was this low George W. Bush was just a year into his first term, no one had yet much idea of the hous... -
Finance 0
Crude Oil’s Sweet Spot
The long-term chart below of Crude Oil shows a potential reverse Head & Shoulders pattern that has formed since the end of 2014, with a high-level tug-of-war occurring above the light green shaded area (just above a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and within the upper half of a declining channel) at 43.50 since mid-2016. At the moment, we see major indecision around the 50.00 level (50 & 200-day moving averages). A breakout and hold above the reverse H&S pattern neckline around 57.00 would be significant, inasmuch as we see a confluence of major Fibonacci, channel, and price resistance at that level. I’d call tha... -
Finance 0
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Bond Market Sending A Message For Stocks?
After the news-heavy calendar last week, there are few market-moving economic reports in the week ahead. It is also the quiet period for the Fed. How will the punditry fill those empty minutes? Last week’s trading revived a question that many find puzzling. I expect pundits to be asking: How can bonds and stocks both be so strong? Last Week Last week the economic news was mixed, but the market showed strength anyway. Theme Recap In my last WTWA I took note of the big economic calendar and short week. My conclusion was that we might finally see some volatility. Wrong! The news was close enough to expectations that the reactions were modest... -
Finance 0
Weekly Trading Forecast: Politics In Focus On UK Election, Comey
An unexpectedly uncertain UK election and testimony from ousted FBI director James Comey may rattle markets and overshadow economic news-flow. US Dollar Forecast:US Dollar at Risk as Political Jitters Rattle Financial Markets The US Dollar is vulnerable to further weakness as political uncertainty shakes global markets and undermines the Fed’s ability to sustain a lasting rate hike cycle. Euro Forecast: Euro Strength Despite Dovish Draghi: ECB Projections to Set the Tone Euro strength remains resilient despite the multiple dovish comments from ECB President, Mario Draghi. Will next week’s ECB meeting and accompanying press conference h...
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