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Finance 0
Soaring Debt = Slow Growth = Even More Debt = Systemic Crisis
It’s just common sense: Borrow too much money and the weight of this debt makes it hard to do things that used to be easy. This truism is now (finally!) hitting home, and blame is being apportioned. A couple of recent examples: Over The Last 10 Years The U.S. Economy Has Grown At EXACTLY The Same Rate As It Did During The 1930s (Economic Collapse Blog) – Even though I write about our ongoing long-term economic collapse every day, I didn’t realize that things were this bad. In this article, I am going to show you that the average rate of growth for the U.S. economy over the past 10 years is exactly equal to the average rate that the U.S.... -
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Australian Dollar Remains Vulnerable To China Data
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish The Australian Dollar can look to a central bank decision and official GDP data this week But Aussie monetary policy is going nowhere and the growth figures may now be too historic Watch the China data instead A versatile actor on the currency stage, the Australian Dollar plays many different roles. The trick this week will be to know which one it will play and when. At its straightest, AUD/USD is an indicator of interest-rate differentials between Australia and the US. But day-to-day its movements can also be a function of pure Australian economic performance. Then, to add spice, the Aussie ... -
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Market Update For June 5, 2017
As expected, the Dow Jones saw two new all-time highs this week (Thursday and Friday). Just how much higher can the stock market go? On a point basis I really don’t know, could be enough to surprise me. But on a practical basis, for only as long as the central banks making this happen can continue manipulating market values higher without discrediting the faith-based systems their “monetary policy” and units of currencies are based on. I’ve seen market commentators claim that central banks have been monetizing hundreds of billions of dollars of stocks and bonds a month for years. I believe it. One thing is for sure, one day eit... -
Finance 0
Is The Correction Over?
All trends from monthly to hourly are up with a new break-out to an all-time high last week. It is now obvious that the C-wave was shallow and ended on 4/17, with the low of one of the intermediate cycles bottoming at that time. Since (to my knowledge) the next intermediate cycle low is not due until August, there should not be any real weakness until we get closer to that date, and it should allow us to reach the next important projection of about 2500. After that, however, we should witness the most substantial reversal of the trend which started at 1810, but which will not necessarily be the beginning of a new bear market. If EWT analysts ... -
Finance 0
Central Banks Now Own A Third Of The Entire $54 Trillion Global Bond Market
Two weeks ago we asked a question: maybe behind all the rhetoric and constant (ab)use of sophisticated terms like “gamma”, “vega”, CTAs, risk-parity, vol-neutral, central bank vol-suppression, (inverse) VIX ETFs and so forth to explain why despite the surging political uncertainty in recent years, and especially since the US election … global equity volatility, both implied and realized, has tumbled to record lows, sliding below levels not even seen before the 2008 financial crisis, there was a far simpler reason for the plunge in volatility: trading was slowly grinding to a halt. That’s what we asked a... -
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HH Who Will Survive The Retail Reckoning Of 2017?
By Knowledge Wharton Legacy retailers’ ongoing struggle to stay relevant in a landscape increasingly dominated by Amazon and online upstarts has come to a head in the past year. Companies will close thousands of stores this year – and some may not survive at all. While it may seem that retail is headed for an apocalypse dominated by dead malls, in reality it’s a needed industry shakeout. “The U.S. is overstored and we’re in the middle of a painful reset,” said Carrie Ask, executive vice president and president of global retail for Levi Strauss. “What’s dominating the headlines is that retail is not successful; it’s not tr... -
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Less Than Zero: How The Fed Killed Saving
The other day I was in my local branch of a Too Big To Fail bank where I have a few accounts. One of them is a savings account in which I keep some of my “dry powder” cash stored. It had been a while since I had checked what kind of return the savings account offered. I knew it was pretty low, but there have been a few Fed rate hikes since the last time I had checked. So I asked the teller to look up the current rate the account was yielding. Any guesses? It’s 0.06%. Not 0.6%. And definitely not the 6% I remember receiving when I was a teenager. 0.06%. As in, put $100,000 into your savings account and get back a whopping $... -
Finance 0
Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus – Sunday, June 4
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets. Big Picture: June 4 Last week, I predicted that the best t... -
Finance 0
International Economic Week In Review: Solid News Continues
Three years ago, Larry Summers reacquainted us with the term “secular stagnation” – a term originally used during the Great Depression to describe an extended period of weak but positive economic growth. In an interview this week, he stated he still agrees with that particular assessment of the overall economic situation: “When I made my comments in 2013 at the IMF they were couched with very substantial doubts. Today I would have fewer. The essence of my argument then was that because of a variety of structural factors the neutral rate of interest was much lower than it had been and, therefore, getting to an adequately low rate was ... -
Finance 0
The Week Ahead: Critical ECB Decision, UK Elections And More
After a focus on the US, markets now shift to the old continent. The ECB has its inflation numbers. Will it decide to initiate the beginning of the end of the QE program? Or will Draghi drag down the euro? In the UK, the night between Thursday and Friday could be critical for the pound as eyes will be glued to the television screens. Video preview for the week of June 5-9 2017: Video length: 00:04:24 ...
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