Dollar/yen dropped as the page turned into June, reflecting the dollar’s weakness. Here is an outlook for the key levels to watch on the pair with a note of key movers. We cover the top fundamental news and outlook, a technical analysis on the daily chart and finally sentiment for the pair moving forward. USD/JPY fundamental movers USD/JPY was under pressure early in the week due to yet another missile test by North Korea. The Japanese yen attracts flows in times of trouble, even if the trouble is in Japan’s neighborhood. The pair then advanced on positive data from the US, mostly the ADP NFP. The final blow came from the US Non-Farm...
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 11 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: · Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months. · Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months. · Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week. · Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates. Let’s take...
I can’t stress this enough. The easy money over the next year or so is going to be made in the stock market. Allocate most, if not all, of your capital to that sector if you want to have a lot more money in your account by this time next year. I would only use “play money” for metal, energy and currency trades. Serious money has to be reserved for the stock portfolio trades. There are two periods where traders can make a lot of money fast. One is at the very beginning of a bull market (the baby bull), and the other is at the very end of a bull market (the bubble). Stocks have entered the bubble phase of this bull market. Not only do we ...
The most recent Friday ranking is shown in the column labeled WkBk0. WkBk0 represents a non-trade day (only important in the sense that it is not acted upon for backtesting purposes). The last “official” trade-day was WkBk1, a week earlier. ETF Momentum Rankings — Commentary Movement in the last week’s ETF momentum rankings has been minimal. Only SPY has moved up into the highest 12 ranks, and just barely. The current top five continue to be non-US oriented ETFs. Save one, all of these have had green-shaded ETF momentum ranking for four consecutive weeks. Positive movement in US ETFs can be seen looking at the table. WkBk4 (fi...
The bull market roared on this week as it shook off a weak May jobs report to continue pushing higher. The S&P 500 added another 1% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq continued its market leadership gaining 1.5%. The S&P 500 is now up around 9% on the year with the Nasdaq up 17%. The economic data was decidedly mixed this week. The economy gained just 138,000 jobs in May compared to expectations for 185,000 although the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%. Personal spending and personal income both rose by 0.4%. Both are important indicators of economic strength. Auto sales dipped for the 5th consecutive month and could be putting the sector on...
There has been a massive storm of political rain that has blanketed the media airwaves and internet last month, however, the stock market ignored the deluge of headlines and focused on more important factors, as prices once again pushed to new record highs. Over the eight-year bull market, the old adage to “sell in May, and go away,” once again was not a very successful strategy. Had investors heeded this advice, they would have missed out on a +1.2% gain in the S&P 500 index during May (up +7.7% for 2017) and a +2.5% surge in the technology-driven NASDAQ index (+15.1% in 2017). Keeping track of the relentless political storm of new h...
Tracking corporate insiders brings an interesting dimension to investing inspiration. Insiders, it’s hoped, have a far more accurate perception of a stock’s outlook than the market due to their personal involvement in the running of the company. If insiders are buying shares in a stock with their own money it can be a good indication of a compelling investment opportunity. Selling can indicate the reverse. To find the most recent insider transactions, we looked at TipRanks’ Daily Insider Transactions tool which displays all the latest insider transactions from over 37,000 insiders. We filtered the results to only the best-performing o...
One of the biggest mistakes made by many Forex traders is not understanding that deciding correctly what to trade, and in which direction, is 90% of the battle to turn a profit. Unfortunately, too many traders focus on trying to perfect entry methods, not realizing that if you correctly pick what is going to up today, for example, then the exact entry method you use is not going to make a major difference to your trading results. You can become an expert in picking entries on the 5-minute chart, but if you don’t pick what to trade using a broader, higher timeframe perspective, it will be of little use to you. Why do traders make this mistak...
Were you looking for another reason to be wary of US equities? And by “another reason” I mean in addition to ridiculous multiples, the growing disconnect between stocks and the flattening yield curve, the fact that a handful of names are responsible for a historically disproportionate percentage of the YTD return, the possibility that a sudden spike in the VIX could trigger a harrowing unwind in systematic strats that have levered up thanks to artificially suppressed vol., etc. etc. Well look no further, because Citi has one for you. This weekend, the bank is out with its “June 2017 chart of the month” and it does indeed look sc...
GBP/USD reversed directions and gained 70 points. The pair closed at 1.2882. This week’s key events are Services PMI, the parliamentary election and Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. In the UK, manufacturing and construction PMIs continue to point to expansion. Over in the US, the CB Consumer Confidence report dropped and missed the estimate. Nonfarm Payrolls was a major disappointment, as the gain of 138 thousand was well below expectations. Updates GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Services PMI: Monday,...