Asian equity markets are trading mixed today following an attack in central London at the weekend. The Shanghai Composite is off 0.27%, while the Hang Seng is down 0.11%. The Nikkei 225 is trading up by 0.14%. US equities rose to record levels on Friday as Wall Street shrugged off a jobs report that came in well below expectations. Meanwhile, share markets in India have opened the day on a flat note. The BSE Sensex is trading lower by 27 points while the NSE Nifty is trading higher by 4 points. The BSE Mid Cap and BSE Small Cap index both have opened the day up by 0.3%. Barring FMCG stocks, metal stocks and information tech...
Regime Change in the Trump White House? No U.S. postwar president has managed to reset relations with Russia. Now the Trump administration must cope with a special counsel’s investigation. In the past, US efforts at regime change targeted foreign countries; today, the White House. How will it impact Trump’s stalled policy agenda? As I argued in spring 2016 (TWFR, April 25, 2016), US election is a global risk and it would continue to be fought after the Trump election win. But recently, these political struggles moved to an entirely new phase. First, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismissed James Comey, Director of the Federal Bureau of I...
A couple of weeks ago in “Revisiting The Tokyo Whale,” we took a few minutes to remind readers just how large the Bank of Japan’s footprint in the Japanese ETF market truly is. We thought it was important to keep the story front and center lest it should get lost in the incessant chatter about Fed balance sheet normalization and speculation about more hawkish forward guidance from the ECB. Specifically, we showed you the following chart from SocGen: Kuroda, SocGen estimated, had amassed a ¥15.7tn ($144bn) ETF portfolio. That would mean the BoJ owns roughly 75% of the total assets in Japanese equity ETFs. Implicit in that assessment...
Just weeks after issuing its guidance and “beating” estimates that would have missed estimates issued a couple of short quarters ago, Scott Wapner at CNBC reports that Herbalife (HLF) is set to lower its sales guidance before market open tomorrow, Monday morning. Wapner’s exclusive, out late Sunday night, stated: Herbalife will lower its sales outlook for the current quarter before Monday’s market open, the company told CNBC, as it gears up for tougher new Federal Trade Commission regulations appeared to hurt business more than anticipated. According to a press release reviewed by CNBC, Herbalife now expects revenues to be 1.5 perc...
Dundee (DDEJF) is a holding company involved in a lot of businesses in Canada: real-estate, energy, wealth management and other investments. The market cap of the company is currently $160 million with a tangible book value of about 800 million. For what it’s worth, they consider themselves value investors. But as you can probably guess from the difference between the company’s book value and its market value, things have not gone so well for them in recent years. The common shares are probably good value at this discount to tangible book value (so much so that they are owned by Francis Chou), but to me this is a bit risky beca...
After months of “smoking guns” and conspiracy theory dismissals, a Singapore-based Deutsche Bank trader (at the center of fraud allegations) finally confirmed (by admitting guilt) what many have suspected – the biggest banks in the world have conspired to rig precious metals markets. The Deutsche Bank trader, David Liew, pleaded guilty in federal court in Chicago to conspiring to spoof gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures, according to court papers. Bloomberg notes that spoofing involves traders placing orders that they never intend to fill, in an attempt to manipulate the price. Following an introductory period ...
And while we’re on the subject of fitness, Vitamin Shoppe has – – in spite of its fancy-pants moniker – – also gotten destroyed, even in this totally fake bull market. When the real market resumes, I suspect both firms will be heading for $0.00/share....
Nothing goes is a straight line for ever! After a long period of time you know something scary is coming! Stats from the 100 years trend of Dow Jones Industrials Index. 10 year cycle of years starting with a 7 on the end (1987, 1997, 2007) and years ending with a 8 on the end (1988, 1988, 2008). During the 2years of 2017 and 2018 the odds are: 1) 20% chance the up trend will continue at the same pace with no correction greater than 12%. 2) If (1) occurs and a major correction is delayed the odds increase a 20% plus correct is very likely. 3) 80% chance the trend does not continue at same pace and will either fall or trend flat. 4) 40% chance ...