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  • Finance 0

    Lots Of Volatility No Real Movement

    Volatility Kick Just Waiting For The Bond Bears Energy-less Oil Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Last week, I discussed the “Breakout Failure As Resistance Holds” stating: how, despite the carnage in Technology and Discretionary sectors, the overall market was mostly unaffected. “The markets shot out of the gate on Monday and rose 20-points for the day which confirmed the breakout above previous resistance. Unfortunately, that bout of ‘exuberance’ was short-lived and the rally faded for the rest of week closing back below resistance as shown below.” Importantly, note the short-term “sell signal” remains in...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    As Risk Rises These Are The Opportunities

    The Nasdaq ended a volatile week at the low of its recent range. In this crucial weekend video update we look at the risk correlations in the market which are on the rise. Watch this video to find out the opportunities for next week....
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 3 And July 10

    Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.         Forecast Prior Observation Consensus   Week of July 3         July 3         PMI Manufacturing Index – June 52.1 52.1(p) 52.2             ISM (Mfg) – June 54.9% 54.9(p) 55.1   ISM Prices 60.0 60.5               Construction Spending – May 0.4% -1.4 0.5             Auto Sales* – June 16.6M 16.7 16.6   *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence                   Factory Orders – May -0.5% -0.2 -0.6   Durable Goods Orders -1.1 -1.1(p)     Nondurable Goods Orders 0.2 0.4               July 6         Initi...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    E SPX In Danger Of Decline

    VIX challenged its mid-Cycle resistance at 15.08 before closing beneath Intermediate-term resistance at 11.61.  A rally that closes above Long-term resistance at 12.58 implies that VIX may challenge its Ending Diagonal trendline at 17.50 in the following move.   (ZeroHedge)  There’s been a growing chorus lately suggesting that perhaps the record low VIX readings aren’t due to record low feelings about volatility, but instead due to the dramatic increase in VIX products and assets betting on decreases in volatility. As RCM Alternatives notes, it sure feels like that is the case, with every move higher in the VIX seemingly smacked do...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Speculators Scramble Cover Short Canadian Dollar And Mexican Peso Futures

    Speculators bought back previously sold Canadian dollar and Mexican peso futures positions in dramatic fashion in the CFTC reporting week ending June 27.   Yet, in some ways, what is striking may not be the covering of 33.2k Canadian dollar future contracts, as large as that may be, but rather that the speculative gross short position stood at a still substantial 78.2k contracts. The Canadian dollar appreciated nearly another 1.8% in the three sessions since the reporting period ended.   This suggests there is scope for more short-covering gains. In this vein, it is also interesting to note that the speculative longs barely changed. Give...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Charts Give No Hint Of A Change In The Ongoing Downside Pressure On Gold & Silver

    By Michael Noonan (EdgeTraderPlus.com) There does not appear to be any hint of a change in the ongoing downside pressure for gold and silver. Gold – Monthly Nearest OHLC Chart …Confirmation of a change in trend will only come after a higher high above 1300 from 2016, as seen in this weekly chart below.  Since the month and a half decline at the end of 2016, it has been seven months of rally effort that has been unable to retrace the entire decline.  This is a sign of a weak market, and supports the weakness found in the Qtrly and monthly charts. Gold Chart: July 2014 – July 2017 Gold Chart: Daily We made chart comments on ...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Wall Street Strategists Forecast Most-Bearish Second Half Since 1999

    Despite a hiccup in the last week or so, global stocks survived as the best-performing asset class of the year (with the MSCI All-Country World Index wrapping up its best first half in 19 years)… But, as Bloomberg reports, Wall Street strategists are fighting historic odds when urging investors not to chase the rally in the U.S. stock market. They’re predicting the S&P 500 Index will see momentum fade in the second half after shares climbed 8.2 percent for the best first-half performance since 2013. The average year-end prediction, 2,439, represents a 0.6 percent increase by December, the least bullish forecast at this time ...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Longer-Term Trend – Saturday, July 1

    It seems like we are experiencing quite a bit of sector rotation. Last week all the talk was about Biotech. This week all the talk was about Financials. What will it be this coming week? Before conceding that rates are headed meaningfully higher, the 10Y rate needs to be above its 50-day. Based on this chart below, I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates begin to head lower again along with the Financials. The Long-Term Outlook Since we are on the subject of rates, it might be a good time to look at the bond/stock ratio. The ratio has bottomed out, but it has a way to go before it favors bonds over stocks. This chart says to stick with sto...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Q1 GDP Wasn’t So Bad: 1.4% Annualized Growth

    On Thursday, instead of rallying, the S&P 500 fell 0.86% and the Nasdaq fell 1.44%. The S&P financials sector was up 0.65% and the technology sector was down 1.83%. The selloff was blamed on investors rebalancing their portfolios since it is the penultimate day of the quarter. In a normal market, this wouldn’t even be considered a selloff, but in this market, any time the S&P 500 moves more than 0.5% it’s a big deal. The biggest economic report on Thursday was the Q1 GDP revision. It was initially published at 0.7%. After two revisions, the final estimate for Q1 GDP is 1.4%. The report was revised higher due to upward revision...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Forecast July 3-7 2017

    EUR/USD finally made a breakthrough and reached the highest levels in over a year. Is this the beginning of a longer trend? The first week of July features PMIs and the ECB meeting minutes. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. Mario Draghi talked about a move from deflation risk to reflation and also about gradually removing stimulus. This optimism from Draghi, that was very cautious on inflation so far, sent the euro higher. In the US, Yellen did not say anything regarding monetary policy, but her colleagues seem more skeptical about inflation picking up. Updates: EUR/USD dai...
    On July 1, 2017 / By