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    U.S. Stock Markets Become Bearish If Semiconductors Break Down From Here

    Semiconductor stocks in the U.S. had a bad week. The semiconductor index SOXX lost 4.92 percent, closing the week at 1034 points. The index arrived at a critical juncture, this is why and how impactful their next move can become for broad markets. First, as also noted by CNBC, sector leaders like Micron Technology (MU), Nvidia (NVDA), and AMD have fallen sharply in recent days. That resulted in the semiconductor index SOXX to get back to the support level of their rising channel. Interestingly, in the first week of June the same index tried to break out to the upside from that same channel. Second, InvestingHaven’s vision is fully aligned...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Loses Its Cheer Into Mid-Year

    Here in wee Monaco amongst its most famous district Monte-Carlo lies the “Carré d’Or” or “Golden Square”. The name is perfectly analogous to the ongoing, spoiled attitudinal state of late for Gold: ’tis acting like a “square”, continuing as ever to not go anywhere. Further, as the above panel shows, Gold now lies -104 points (or -7.7%) from where ’twas at mid-year in 2016, still choosing to be docked in its 1240-1280 box, wherein week-after-week little opportunity knocks. To be sure for the long-term stacker, averaging in at the same price over and over rather defeats the whole purpose....
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    ETF Watchlist: Week Of July 3, 2017

      The stock market wrapped up the first half of 2017 with one of its strongest performances in several years. The S&P 500 had its best start since 2013 with the Nasdaq delivering its strongest first six months since the financial crisis ended in 2009. The Dow and the S&P 500 posted gains of just over 8% year-to-date while the Nasdaq is up more than 14%. Large caps outperformed their smaller counterparts during the first six months of the year – the S&P MidCap 400 is 5%, while the S&P 600 SmallCap is up just 2%. Growth stocks continue to outperform value stocks. We might be seeing the start of a change in leadership in t...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EC Weighing The Week Ahead: How Strong Is The Labor Market?

    A holiday-interrupted week is loaded with important economic data. Since many market participants will skip Monday to stretch their weekend, the action will focus on Friday’s employment situation report. People will be asking: Just how strong is the labor market? Last Week Recap The big economic news last week was the (slight) increase in volatility. Tuesday’s decline was attributed to the ACA repeal/replace delay and what it implied for the Trump agenda. That was forgotten by Wednesday. Thursday saw technology selling right at the opening. Art Cashin attributed the rotational decline to dueling programs. That had little carry over to Fri...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Oil Prices Extend Bullish Sequence As U.S. Crude Output Narrows

    Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil: Bullish Crude oil prices may stage a larger recovery over the days ahead as data coming out of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlights the risk for a more meaningful shift in supply. The EIA’s monthly update showed U.S. production narrowed to 9.08M b/d from 9.1M b/din March, with the slowdown led by a 5.8% contraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The recent downtick in U.S. output may keep oil afloat in July, but a broader look at the data set instills a long-term bearish outlook for energy prices especially as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains ...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Technical Market Report For July 1, 2017

    The good news is: In spite of some deterioration in the indices, new lows have remained insignificant. The Negatives New highs and new lows both continued to decline last week. The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH, in green, has been calculated using NYSE data. The Positives The secondaries outperformed the blue chips and new lows declined. The next chart cov...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Quarter Ends With A Whimper For Long Bonds & Nasdaq

    With the end of the first half of the year in the books, we’re seeing an interesting divergence between the recent trading and the total results for the past 6 months. The Nasdaq had its best first half since 2009 as it was up 14.1%. At the same time, it also had a rough June as it broke a 7-month winning streak having its worst month since October. In the same token, the yield curve had been flattening this year, but in the past four days it has steepened to the rate it was at when June started as you can see in the chart below. There’s been a large selloff in the 10-year bond as yields increased from 2.137% to 2.2966% in the past four d...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Market Briefing For Monday, July 3

    Fireworks fizzled repeatedly in the second quarter’s final week. Ongoing and persistent efforts by portfolio managers to ‘rotate’ into supposedly attractive values, are primarily a tactic to sustain the overall primary uptrend that has persisted (at least superficially) throughout the year. In our view ‘distribution’ began under cover of a strong Dow and S&P from early March forward.    I’ve described this ongoing pattern thoroughly along-the-way; and explained why we called for the S&P 2430-50 area to be a likely topping-zone. At the same time I was warning that many of the ‘heavy-lifters&#...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Two Policy Updates

    The IMF has been reluctant to participate in the aid package to Greece that runs out the middle of next year. It does not believe that Greek debt is sustainable. Nevertheless, it did recently agree to provide a precautionary line of credit at the end of the program.    The IMF decision required the approval of the board, and we thought there was a reasonable chance the US would block it. That would have been significant, as the German and Dutch parliaments require the IMF participation, but there is no compelling reason for the IMF to participate. The sustainability of Greece’s debt is such an open question that the ECB, which acc...
    On July 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Week In Review: Sinovac’s Privatization Offer Draws $459 Million Outside Bid

    Shandong Sinobioway Biomedicine (SZE: 002581) topped management’s $402 million bid to privatize China vaccine maker Sinovac (NSDQ: SVA) with a $459 million offer of its own (see story). Sinobioway also criticized Sinovac’s board for its lack of transparency. Eighteen months ago, when the Sinovac privatization saga started, Sinobioway offered $7 per share for Sinovac, improving on management’s earlier $6.18 offer. Sinovac’s board responded by instituting a poison pill and going silent on the proceedings. This week, Sinovac announced it had accepted management’s newly raised $7 bid — a bid that had never be...
    On July 1, 2017 / By