Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Of July 3

    (from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM FX ended the week on a mixed note, as investors await fresh drivers. US jobs data on Friday could provide more clarity on Fed policy and the US economy.  Within EM, many countries are expected to report lower inflation readings for June that support the view that most EM central banks will remain in dovish mode for now. We remain cautious on the EM asset class near-term.    Caixin reports June China manufacturing PMI Monday, which is expected at 49.8 vs. 49.6 in May. Official manufacturing PMI was already reported at 51.7 vs. 51.2 in May. While the two series often diverge, we warn of upside risk to the...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Americans: The Most Parochial People In The World

    Another month in 2017 has come and gone.  And, I have to say that June was for the most part pretty quiet compared to what the stock market saw earlier in the year.  In June we saw seven new BEV Zeros (new all-time highs) in the Bear’s Eye View chart below.  But for all that the Dow Jones ended June only 341 points higher from where it found itself at the end of May.  When looking at a market over 21,000, 341 points isn’t really much of a gain after seven new all-time highs. Looking at the area of the BEV chart for the November election, now seven months ago, it’s very obvious that something changed. The BEV plot moved from -4.01% o...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Australian Dollar Bulls’ Hawkish RBA Bet May Not Pay Out

    Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish Many developed-market central bankers suddenly sound a lot more hawkish The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t joined them yet, and gives a policy decision this week Will it join the crowd? Well, don’t bet on it just yet Last week saw the Australian Dollar gain on its big, US brother after a chorus of more hawkish developed-market central bank governors put the greenback under pressure against their currencies. Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz and even the Brexit-tossed Bank of England’s Mark Carney all sang variations on the same theme....
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Is This The Top?

    Last  week, I suggested that SPX may be forming a fractal, with the first pattern about to be duplicated by a second, similar one. With the second pattern topping at 2353 and dropping down to 2406 last week, this seems to have been a valid suggestion, but whether the decline is complete or not remains to be seen.  We did see a good (even strong) bounce after the index found support just above the 2400 peak of early March 2017.   The decline retraced slightly less than .382 of the distance from the low of the pull-back from the 2400 top (2322, 3/27) and the 2453 top, which could be one of the reasons we had such a good bounce. But we could ...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus July 3

    The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets. Big Picture 25th June 2017 Last week, I passed on making a...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Autonomous Future: Electric Feeder Ships

    With Google, Apple, and all the car manufacturers focusing on autos, other companies have their eyes on less sexy things like autonomous feeder ships. Autonomous Ships Humans at Sea reports on the World’s First Autonomous, Zero Emission Container Ship. The vessel “YARA Birkeland” will be the world’s first fully electric and autonomous container ship, with zero emissions. Operation is planned to start in the latter half of 2018, shipping products from YARA’s Porsgrunn production plant to Brevik and Larvik in Norway. Named “YARA Birkeland” after YARA’s founder, the famous scientist and innovator Kristian Birkeland, the vesse...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    QQQ At A Crossroad

    Video length: 00:07:51...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Inflation Underlines The Dilemma Facing Central Banks

    Central bank watchers everywhere seem to be on high alert for any signs of monetary tightening. Investors are parsing bankers’ statements for clues as to when rates will rise. Whether by design or accident, it seems that these central banks are giving off vibes that rates are about to take off. Taking a world tour of central bankers, we note that: The Fed has consistently spoken of the need to “normalize “rates, that is to get the real rate of interest into positive territory; in addition, the Fed has signaled that it wants to shed its bloated balance sheet of government and agency debt; The European Central Bank ‘s President Mario Dr...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Official Coordination Or Is The Market Getting Ahead Of Itself?

    Here are the data points that the consensus narrative connects. The BIS encourages countries not to dawdle and remove accommodation when appropriate. The Bank of Canada indicated that after several quarters of strong economic expansion and robust labor market growth, it is time to re-think its monetary stance.  In a close (5-3) vote, the Bank of England left rates on hold in June, and Governor Carney who had forcefully argued against raising rates seemed more open. It has removed some accommodation provided after last year’s referendum through raising the capital buffer.  The ECB has been gradually evolving its risk assessment and f...
    On July 2, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    USD Intermediate Cycle Update – Sunday, July 2

    Cycle Status/Outlook: Long term I believe the USD found a 15 Year Super Cycle top in early 2015.  To confirm this we need to see the USD find a Yearly Cycle Low soon and bounce high enough to break the YC down trend line on my first chart, a three year weekly that shows Price has dropped below my Blue 2014 uptrend line and now the 30ema is starting to roll over and should start to cap rallies acting as resistance rather than support. Shorter term, my Trading Cycle count is a bit cloudy as I have two alternate counts. While the next TCL/DCL could also be a Yearly Cycle Low, my expectations are that even a rally out of a YCL will be corrective...
    On July 2, 2017 / By