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  • Finance 0

    4 ETFs To Add To Your Fourth Of July Celebration

    With solid employment, rising income, low gas price, and higher consumer confidence, more Americans will binge on travel and barbecue this Fourth of July. AAA estimates that a record 44.2 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more during the holiday weekend (June 30 to July 4), up 3% from last year. About 38 million will travel by car, over 3.5 million will fly, and the remaining will take other modes of transportation like bus, train or ship. The spike in travel demand was driven by cheap gas prices. According to a GasBuddy, drivers on the road are likely to pay the lowest price in 12 years. Consumers will pay an average of $2.21 per gal...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Time Of The Euro Is Here

    We’re betting on the euro as we believe that the EURUSD currency pair is set to continue its growth for the foreseeable future. As we see it, there are 7 reasons for this: 1. The ECB has hinted at a change in monetary policy. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, has recently said that the Eurozone’s economy is starting to recover and that investment is growing, which are good reasons for normalising monetary policy. Markets have apparently interpreted this as a step towards curtailing the quantitative easing program and as a sign of a hike in interest rates, which are currently at zero. 2. The Eurozone is transitioning fr...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    AUD: Bulls Beware; Market Expects Too Much From RBA – ANZ

    A new month brings a new RBA decision as the Aussie is struggling despite an upbeat Chinese figure. What can we expect or not expect from the RBA? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: ANZ Research notes that following the surprising tilts from the ECB, BoE, and BoC last week, the market is on the hunt for hawkish RBA surprise this week. “We do not agree with the view that there is a globally coordinated shift in policy taking place, and we do not think that the RBA is on the cusp of shifting its bias.   The starting point for the RBA is different. The degree of slack in the Australian economy gives the RBA time, and the starting po...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    With Investors Now Short, Is Dollar Sentiment Too Bearish?

    If you’re out there looking for contrarian indicators, it’s probably worth noting that investors flipped short USD for the first time in a year according to the latest positioning data. As Deutsche Bank notes, “sentiment worsened in USD as leveraged funds cut their long USD positioning by more than half while asset managers extended their shorts by a quarter.” That’s largely the product of decreasing policy divergence between the US and Europe (or at least the perception/anticipation of decreasing policy divergence) and concerns about the viability of the Trump agenda. With that as the backdrop, today’s pre-holiday price action is...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Construction Spending Flop: Only Public Spending Prevents Outright Disaster

    The Econoday consensus expected a bounce in May construction spending but the only bounce was an April revision from -1.4% to -0.7%. May was flat vs an expected bounce of 0.5%. Spring 2017 was not the greatest for the nation’s housing sector where data have been mixed at best. Permits have been down and spending data are flat to down with construction spending unchanged in May which hits the very lowest estimate in Econoday’s consensus range. And the weakness is in residential spending, down 0.6 percent overall and including declines for single-family homes, residential improvements, and especially in May for multi-family units. Private ...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Wheat & Oil: Two Great Calls

    Last week I  called the Oil bottom and reversal together with my bullish view in Wheat. I did not trade both but only Wheat. Oil is showing signs of being overbought on the daily chart. Bulls need to be cautious. Our target of $49-$50 has not been reached… but we could see some more upside before a reversal. Wheat has broken out of a long-term wedge pattern that started around $740. This is my target. At $550 we could see a first pause in the rise of wheat price.  Trend is clearly bullish and any pull back is a buying opportunity....
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Markit Manufacturing PMI: Growth Weakens In June

    The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.0, down from the 52.7 final May figure. Today’s headline number was slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 52.1. Markit’s Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Here is the opening from the latest press release: June data pointed to a relatively subdued month for the U.S. manufacturing sector, with output, new order and employment growth all slowing since May. At the same time, survey respondents signalled resilient confidence towards the year ah...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The “Big Lie” Of Market Indexes

    Last week, I received the following email from a reader which I thought was worth further discussion. “In a recent article “Signs of Excess – Crowding and Innovation” Lance stated ‘Note the chart above is what has happened to a $100,000 investment in the S&P Index. While the S&P index has soared past previous highs, a $100,000 dollar investment has just recently gotten back to even. This demonstrates the important difference about the impact of losses on a dollar-based portfolio on investments versus a market-cap weighted phantom index.” – M. Fitzpatrick It’s a great question. Almost daily there is an article touting...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    No Monster At The ZLB, Just Supply

    Before Chuck Yeager broke the sound barrier in his experimental Bell X-1 aircraft, it was long thought by many to be an extremely difficult challenge if not impossible altogether. Many test pilots spoke of a monster that lay beyond the speed of sound, one ready to destroy any human machine attempting to go faster. In fact, a year before Captain Yeager’s triumph, Geoffrey DeHavilland was killed when his DH-108 disintegrated near the barrier, with many witnesses on the ground reporting a sonic boom. In economics, there remains today a similar constraint though one not nearly as useful in fact as well as in theory. Economists loathe the Zero L...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Dollar Primed For FOMC Minutes, NFP As Euro, Yen Trends Advance

    The third quarter kicks off today and with the first half of 2017 now in the books, it’s already been quite the eventful year. While the reflation trade bubbled with hope as we turned into 2017, a vicious reversal in the U.S. Dollar through the first six months leaves many major currency pairs in rather precarious positions. The Euro has begun to show signs of strength as investors attempt to get-ahead of the European Central bank for an eventual exit from their gargantuan stimulus program; and more recently, we’ve started to see the British Pound take on some bullish tendencies as it appears that the Bank of England might be getting clos...
    On July 3, 2017 / By