Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    May 2017 Headline Construction Spending Growth Unchanged

    The headlines say construction spending was unchanged and below expectations. Our view is worse than the headlines. Analyst Opinion of Construction Spending There was significant backward revision starting in January 2015. The rolling averages declined. Also note that inflation is grabbing hold – and the inflation adjusted numbers are worse than the headlines – but still better growth than real GDP. The employment gains year-over-year are now better than the year-over-year improvement in construction spending. Econintersect analysis: Growth decelerated 0.8 % month-over-month and up 4.7 % year-over-year. Inflation adjusted con...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Top Six Things You Should Know About Royalty Companies Now

    While in New York last week, I had the privilege of seeing many colleagues face-to-face. It’s always a pleasure for me to be able to talk gold with industry friends and experts. One stop during my trip that I thoroughly enjoyed was to chat with Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz on Bloomberg Radio. Our discussion was dynamic as always and I shared with them my outlook for gold in the second half of the year, along with the opportunities I continue to see with royalty names. I still find it curious that many investors don’t realize what a significant role royalty and streaming companies play in the mining business. Last year I wrote about some o...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    5 Best Performing Stocks Of June

    Markets ended mixed over a month which witnessed a strong rotation out of tech stocks. In a widely anticipated move, the Fed hiked rates and provided details about how it intends to trim its balance sheet. The Trump administration introduced crucial legislations relating to health insurance and financial sector legislation which met with a limited amount of legislative success. Financials and healthcare stocks gained as a result of tighter rates and relaxation of regulations. Meanwhile, economic data continued to be worrying, particularly on the inflation front. June’s Performance For the month, the Dow and the S&P 500 registered gains ...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Corn Stocks Higher Than Expected, But Acres Stun The Markets

    Market Analysis This year’s dual quarterly stocks and acreage reports prompted a dramatic response when the USDA released them on Friday. 2017’s June 1 inventory had larger corn stocks, but soybeans’ supplies were lower than expected. The Ag Department survey of US planting acres was also stunner with spring wheat and soybean plantings both lower than expected while corn seedings re-bounded sharply from its 4 million lower March level. Overall, June’s planting levels for the 8 major crops increased just 172,000 acres from March with higher corn, sorghum and soybeans acres being compensated by lower spring wheat, small grains and cotto...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Holiday Trading Hours And Volume

    Futures are surprisingly making a move in the premarket Whether it holds will be a whole other question. Gap highers tend to be shakey business of late. Even Friday, where the market was solid all day long, chose to sell-off in the final 10 minutes of trading and wipe out about 80% of the S&P 500’s gains on the day.  Will there be another attempt to close the gap this morning? Probably.  You have low volume, half day of trading. Such a move could easily be manipulated by the banks and hedgies. On the other hand, such a large gap isn’t common for a half day of trading, so perhaps there is something more to this rally (prove ...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Let Us Not Lose Our Country To Politics

    Politics has become a huge distraction. It is absorbing too much time and energy. Concentrating on gossip and impossible dreams, we are neglecting the hidden, ever-widening fault line that is splitting the country, as well as many parties, into two factions fighting for two negatives. The center must hold. We must make our own position clear. No, we will not stand for the demise of The Market; no, we will not stand for the demise of The Government. Followers of Keynes urge us to abandon the one; followers of Hayek urge us to abandon the other. The sad truth is not that these factions are wrong. The tragedy is that they are both right. The pro...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Missing Income

    With inflation tailing off as oil price base effects fade, statistics that turn nominal into real terms will start looking better. Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita, for example, increased in May 2017 at a faster rate than in January. The difference, however, isn’t all that much. The CPI in January was 2.50% and 1.87% in May, but Real DPI per Capita accelerated only from +0.86% year-over-year the to +1.49% now, a perfect 63 bps equalization (it doesn’t quite work out that way in nominal terms, but close enough). As of the latest BLS figures, the unemployment rate of 4.3% is significantly below the level at which the Fed’s model...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Is The Great Rotation Upon Us?

    Is The Great Rotation upon us? Or is this the umpteenth head fake of 2017? I am talking about the transition of the market focus from technology growth stocks to reflationary value stocks, which some analysts have been predicting, too soon, since January. You can be forgiven for anticipating such a shift ahead of time. After all, the leading FANG stocks, (FB), (AAPL), (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG) have all been on a meteoric tear for six months, and are still up close to 40% this year. However, the sector has close to a monopoly on long-term organic growth, no debt, giant cash hoards, and is engaging in massive share buybacks. It has all been...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Goldman Forecasts Bitcoin Will Soar As High As $3,915

    Last week former Fortress Principal Michael Novogratz made headlines in the cryptocurrency world when he told attendees at the CB Insights Future of Fintech conference that he has cut holdings (in Bitcoin and Ethereum) after the cryptocurrencies’ latest “spectacular run,” warning that “Euthereum had likely hit its highs for the year,” and “cryptocurrencies were likely the biggest bubble of his lifetime.” However, while this all sounds rather downbeat, Novogratz said he remained very “positively constructive” on the space overall, as he should: he still has 10% of his net worth invested i...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Falling Dominoes

    “Rusty” Braziel runs RBN Energy, a firm that provides very useful research on production trends in U.S. hydrocarbons. Their website maintains a regular blog and also offers deeper analysis on specific topics. They reach over 20,000 industry executives, and we find many useful insights in their work. The Domino Effect: How the Shale Revolution is Transforming Energy Markets, Industries and Economics was published early last year, coincidentally just a few weeks prior to the low in the energy sector’s bear market that was largely due to U.S. hydrocarbon output. Like his blog posts, Rusty’s book is well researched and highly engaging. H...
    On July 3, 2017 / By