Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    The Problem With PMIs

    So what’s the problem with the PMIs? I could talk about a couple of things here, such as the divergence within emerging and developing economies, and the divergence between them. I could talk about the topping out of the global manufacturing PMI. But that’s not it. The one in the main chart today is the divergence between the ISM manufacturing PMI and the Markit manufacturing PMI. The June readings had the ISM up 2.9pts to 57.8 and Markit down -0.6pts to 52.1 so a notable difference in level and change. For me, there are a couple of observations: 1. Take a 3m rolling average view and regardless of the level the trend is the sam...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The VIX Is Near An All-Time Low

    C&I lending is one of the most important indicators used to determine the health of the economy. I was questioning the importance I give this metric because it predicted a recession, yet nothing happened. With the report which was released Friday, the C&I lending had a sharp move higher, passing the previous peak in November. This signals the economy is strong. It removes fears of a recession. The previous analysis I did was that either a recession was coming this year, or the indicator is broken. The longer it stayed below the November, peak the stronger the indicator got. There have been several periods where the indicator fell for...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    GLD Recognition Day

    Today is called a recognition day when it finally becomes apparent that the trading range is ending and you have a massive breakout move. We can still get a backtest to the breakout point which would represent the 2nd area to take a position. Today GLD gapped below the H&S backtest to the bottom rail of the black bearish rising wedge and that very important S&R line which last week I said came into play around the 117 area. GLD weekly chart: GLD’s monthly 2011 bear market downtrend channel....
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Some Global Odd & Ends

    When it comes to central bank experimentation, Japan is always at the forefront. If something new is being done, Bank of Japan is where it happens. In May for the first time in human history, that central bank’s balance sheet passed the half quadrillion mark. It should be unsettling where a trillion is a rounding error. And yet, despite what appears outwardly like insanity there isn’t again the slightest hint this is anything more than an impressive but ultimately meaningless number. Japanese inflation, like US inflation, bears no resemblance to BoJ activities no matter how far into the stratosphere officials in Tokyo intend to take thei...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Here’s Why Buffett Bought Store Capital

    Warren Buffett made headlines last week when he purchased 9.8% of STORE Capital (STOR) for $377 million on behalf of his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) (BRK-B). Buffett is the most iconic – and most successful – investor of our time. Through decades of profitable business and investment, he has grown Berkshire to a market capitalization of $400+ billion. Thus, when he buys a stock, I tend to pay attention. Warren Buffett’s investment portfolio is full of high-quality dividend stocks, which is surprising for many that know Buffett primarily as a value investor. STORE Capital is the newest addition to Buffett’s portfolio. A clo...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Seattle’s Minimum Wage Hurt Low-Income Workers The Most

    When I debate my leftist friends on the minimum wage, it’s often a strange experience. When other people are listening or watching, they’ll adopt a very extreme position and basically claim that politicians have the power to dramatically boost take-home pay by simply mandating higher levels of pay. And somehow there won’t be any noticeable negative impact on employment and labor markets, even though businesses only create jobs if they expect some net profit. But when we talk privately, they have a more nuanced argument. They’ll confess that higher minimum wages will cause some low-skilled workers to become unemployed, but then jus...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Car Sales Have A Long Way To Fall

    The past decade’s historically low interest rates convinced millions of Americans to buy cars they could only afford with hyper-cheap credit. This made auto sales one of the drivers of the recovery, but it also left far too many people with underwater “car mortgages” that will limit their spending on other things and prevent them from buying their next car until sometime in the 2020s. Like all artificial (that is, credit-driven) booms, this had to end eventually, and it’s looking like now is the time: U.S. Auto Makers Post Sharp Sales Decline in June (Wall Street Journal) – Detroit’s car companies reported steep sales declines in ...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Dividend Income Update June 2017

    Each month I will publish my dividend income. I will mainly do this for staying self motivated and to give you the readers the chance to follow my journey from the beginning on. The dividend income in the first couple of years will be on a very low level but investing in dividend stocks is all about the long term. I am very sure that in 5 years from now I will get my first rewards for the patience and focus on my goals. It is again time for the monthly dividend income summary, can’t believe that is already July. But yeah my dividend income in June was just amazing I crossed the first the 200 EUR mark. Crossing this number is truly a great...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Auto Weak Again, Average Loan Hits Record 5.75 Years: Don’t Worry “Plateau Expected”

    With about 3/4 of the totals in, vehicle sales in June are running no better than even compared to May’s 16.7 million annualized rate according to Econoday. The Wall Street Journal report is much weaker: U.S. Auto Sales Fall as Fewer Vehicles Go to Rental Chains. According to the article subtitle, GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler are moving away from practice of dumping unwanted inventory into rental lots. The body reads quite differently. It is the rental car dealers cutting back due to warranted fears of a decline in used vehicle prices. Auto sales continued to slide in June, as car buyers react to higher vehicle prices and Detroit backs away...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Next Elliott Wave Target For Bitcoin BTCUSD

    Bitcoin is still considered as the currency of the Dark Web, despite the fact that it was the world’s best-performing currency in 2015 & 2016 and currently 1 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is worth 2 Ounces Of Gold which is significantly important in the financial world. The digital currency continued its outstanding performance during this year with and it’s up +260% but Ethereum has taken over the show with +3200% rise since January. We implemented our Elliott Wave technique in our previous articles to predict the rise of Bitcoin and how it was looking to make new all-time highs. Then we explained that despite BTCUSD was reaching a W...
    On July 3, 2017 / By