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  • Finance 0

    An Amazingly Accurate Stock Market Ratio Favors Financials Above Technology Stocks

    We have told readers many times that ratios should not be a primary indicator and should certainly not lead any investment. There are some exceptions, and one of them is the value stocks to growth stocks ratio. Again, this ratio should not be read in isolation, but, interestingly, is gets confirmed by other indicators. We flashed a buy signal for value stocks when, last year, the value stocks to growth stocks ratio made a sharp U-turn, as documented in  Market Sector Rotation Ongoing: Focus On Value vs Growth Stocks For Profits. Since January this year, the ratio started to come down, suggesting that technology stocks would outperform. Th...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Thinking Numb

    I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer, and sometimes it takes me years for a truth to sink through my thick skull. Allow me to give you a couple of examples. The first has to do with buying gold bullion. Now, I’m not a gold kook, but I’m fond of coins and bullion to some degree, and there have been instances when I got the urge to buy the stuff. Usually this would come after a long bout of strength on gold’s part, and I just couldn’t help myself anymore, so I rushed out and gobbled up whatever I wanted at my local dealer. Time after time, that would mark the top. Let me be clear, I’m not talking about buying GLD in my accoun...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Regression To Trend: Another Look At Long-Term Market Performance

    Quick take: At the end of June the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 99% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let’s apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question. Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We’re using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regar...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Real Estate Prices Relative To Geography In United States

    We discuss some of the drivers for the large disparity in Real Estate prices in the United States in this video, and show how much inefficiencies actually exist in the U.S. Real Estate Market. Modern Technology allows for employees to live anywhere in the world. It is amazing how much house $300k buys you in most of the United States versus the two coasts. The Real Estate arbitrage should kick in with companies wanting to lower their costs by allowing more commuting and working remotely. It just makes too much sense not to gain more traction as companies become more sophisticated and evolved with modern societal needs and scarce environmental...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    U.S. Trade Deficit Driven By Goods, Not Services

    from the St Louis Fed — this post authored by Ana Maria Santacreu The U.S. has a trade deficit in goods and services with the rest of the world. That is, the value of its imports exceeds the value of its exports. In 2016, the U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world was $416.7 billion.[1] However, this deficit has been driven entirely by a trade deficit in goods. The U.S. is actually a net exporter of services and has experienced a sharp increase in the surplus of trade services since the 2000s, despite a mild decrease after 2014. Indeed, between 2000 and 2016, the trade surplus in services in the U.S. increased by 145 percent in ...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    4 Strong Buy JP Morgan Mutual Funds For Impressive Returns

    JPMorgan is one of the best financial management companies in the world. It has a legacy of investment management since 1865. Also, JPMorgan is the eighth-largest mutual fund firm in the U.S. and prides itself as the nation’s leader in equity fund flows. JPMorgan offers managed accounts and retirement products. The company has pioneered the introduction of innovative, inflation-protected municipal products. Its primary principle is to understand the needs of its clients and advice the best investment solutions for surplus returns. Below we share with you four top-ranked JPMorgan mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    ISM Vs Markit PMI Divergence Widens Again: Believe Markit

    The manufacturing soft-data reports have been nearly unanimous in reporting widespread strength that has not shown up in any hard data reports. One exception has been Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI report that has consistently been of a muddle-through quality. Let’s compare the ISM Report on Business to Markit’s PMI, both out today. June ISM Manufacturing PMI Markit PMI Markit Manufacturing Growth Weakens Again in June Key Findings Slowest rise in production volumes since September 2016 New order growth eases for fifth month running Input prices broadly unchanged in June June data pointed to a relatively subdued month for the U.S. ...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Finally Gets Relief – ISM Manufacturing To The Rescue

    It was a holiday shortened trading day in the U.S., but it was enough time to deliver a bit of relief for the U.S. dollar index (DXY0). The U.S. dollar index (DXY0) bounced sharply off a 9-month low. The most significant move for the U.S. dollar was against the ever-weakening Japanese yen (FXY). USD/JPY broke out and stayed above resistance at its uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA). The U.S. dollar hurdled over 200DMA resistance against the Japanese yen. The May high for USD/JPY should get tested. However, I most like playing the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar (FXC) for a short-term relief bounce. Oil has had a sharp surge from ...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    What Is A Stock Market Index?

    “How did the stock market do today?” At surface, this seems like a simple question – but it’s also deceptively difficult to answer. The market can be defined as many different things, and there are actually over 100,000 publicly traded companies in the world to choose from. Luckily, the use of a stock market index can help define a particular market, as well as track its performance in a way that is easy to reference. TYPES OF INDICES Today’s infographic from StocksToTrade.com defines a stock market index as a thermometer that measures the health of a group of stocks. When this particular group of stocks changes in value, the inde...
    On July 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Bull Or Bear? Elliot Meets Bressert

    I would like to provide an update on what my expectations are with respect to Gold and PMs for the remainder of 2017. First off, I now no longer feel that early May hosted the ICL for Gold and PMs but I do expect an ICL to unfold in Gold over the next week or so (see my last chart of this post). This update will focus mostly on Cycles analysis but will also bring in some elements of Elliot Wave (EW) Theory that will give you some insight of what I am looking for at the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in Gold.  While I am not an EW expert or practitioner, I do understand its concepts and basic rules enough to use it in conjunction with my...
    On July 3, 2017 / By