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  • Finance 0

    Indian Indices Trade Marginally Lower; Consumer Durables Stocks Witness Selling

    Share markets in India are presently trading marginally lower. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the consumer durables sector and auto sector witnessing maximum selling pressure. Energy stocks are trading in the green. The BSE Sensex is trading down 21 points (down 0.1%) and the NSE Nifty is trading down by 7 points (down 0.1%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading down by 0.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading flat. The rupee is trading at 64.85 to the US$. In the news from the IPO markets, GTPL Hathway made a tepid debut on Indian Indices today. The scrip of the company got listed at Rs 170, th...
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Where Will The Dollar, Euro, Oil And Equities Head In The 3rd Quarter?

    The second quarter ended with both a remarkable restraint in volatility and exceptional progress for key markets like equities (a 7 quarter climb for the S&P 500) and the Dollar (the worst quarter in 7 years). Will the dam holding back risk aversion finally break? Will the monetary policy tides shift? Can oil and gold prices finally return to trend?  US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast – What Could Save the Dollar? The US Dollar has fallen from grace and finished as one of the worst-performing global currencies through mid-year. And yet it has several factors which should be working in its favor: strong financial markets, rising inte...
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Emerging Market Mania – Fed ‘Tightening’ Sparks Best Gains Since 1993

    Emerging market stocks head into the second half of 2017 following their best string of monthly gains since 1993 as strength in the U.S. equities, economic growth in China and better-than-expected earnings boosted appetite. While there are some concerns about growth in the technology sector in the second half, valuations haven’t reached a peak, said Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte in Singapore. Second-quarter earnings results could be the key to whether stocks extend gains in the next six months, she said....
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    AUD/USD Falls Sharply To 0.76 After The RBA Sounds Worried

    The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. However, the team led by Phillip Lowe disappointed Aussie bulls by not providing a hawkish tone. Contrary to the ECB and the BOE, the RBA was not optimistic. On the contrary, they were worried about future employment growth and the current absence of significant wage growth. It remains low and will likely stay as such. Housing issues This slow growth of wages is holding back demand and also contributing to growing household debt, a warning sign also for the housing market. They repeated their stance that house prices are rising “briskly” in some markets. Ho...
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD, USD/JPY Wave 4 Arrives At Fibonacci Decision Zone

    EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD is building a pullback after breaking above resistance (dotted lines).A bullish bounce could see price approach the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (purple) which could complete wave 3 (green). 1 hour The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted blue) and completed its ABC zigzag correction (orange) within wave 4 (brown). The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 (brown) plus the broken resistance levels (blue box) are a key decision zone (point of confluence) and could act as support. A bullish bounce confirms the wave 4 whereas a bearish beak invalidates it. USD/JPY 4 hour The USD/JPY is moving higher towards the Fibona...
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Dollar Sell-Off Reminiscent Of Shanghai-Accord In 2016

      The US dollar index has been witnessing one of the strongest sell-offs recently. The decline last week was the second in the periods between April and June. After rising to the strongest levels above 103.00, just around January, the US dollar index has been in a steady decline ever since. The USD Index has retraced nearly 61.8% of the gains registered from the May lows of 91.92 through January highs of 103.82. The declines in the greenback came about as central bankers convened in Portugal for a banking summit. Participants included central bank chiefs from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ)...
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    USD/JPY Eyes May High Amid Growing Bets For December Fed Rate-Hike

    Ticker Last High Low Daily Change (pip) Daily Range (pip) USD/CAD 1.3001 1.3007 1.2965 33 42 The near-term strength in the Canadian dollar may persist over the coming days as the region’s employment report is expected to show the economy adding another 11.3K jobs in June. A further improvement in labor market dynamics is likely to heighten the appeal of the loonie as it boosts the outlook for growth and encourages the Bank of Canada (BoC) to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low. Recent comments from Governor Stephen Poloz suggest the central bank is more inclined to move away from its easing-cycle as the rate cuts from ...
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Goldman Sachs On What Happens Next – Recession, War, Or Goldilocks

    After several months of low volatility across assets since mid-2016, particularly in equities, markets were more volatile last week owing to fears of central bank tightening. Volatility picked up first in FX and rates, and then spilled over to equities. However, as Goldman notes, this might not be the end of the low vol regime yet.   Via Goldman Sachs, Since 1928, there have been 14 comparable low vol regimes for the S&P 500 – on average, they lasted nearly two years and they had a median length of 15-16 months. Often they were supported by a very favourable macro backdrop, similar to the recent ‘Goldilocks scenario’. Breaking o...
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    GBP: Bringing Forward Our BoE Rate Hike Call To Nov 17; Implications On GBP – BTMU

    The British pound enjoyed Carney’s positive comments and advanced. Is he really up for a rate hike? Here is the view from BTMU: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: BTMU FX Strategy Research has brought forward the timing of the first MPC rate increase from Feb 2018 to Nov 2017. From an FX perspective, BTMU short-term metrics point to GBP upward momentum being more likely sustained going forward. “Short-term yield spreads have moved in favour of the pound, unlike for the euro for example. Secondly, our 10-year real yield spread is also turning and moving in favour of a higher GBP/USD. The pound certainly looks over sold versus the...
    On July 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Why A Market Dislocation Could Be Good For The Economy?

    by Gene D. Balas Well, the headline may be a bit extreme and dramatic, but there are reasons why some restraint in asset prices may tighten financial conditions just enough, so the Fed doesn’t have to hit the brakes quite as hard. Recently, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams have all mentioned rich valuations (meaning loose financial conditions with high stock prices and low bond yields) as concerns in recent speeches. In a speech devoted to financial stability concerns, Fed Vice Chair Fischer observed, “Prices of risky assets have increased in most major asset markets in ...
    On July 4, 2017 / By