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Finance 0
The Best And Worst Performing Assets In The First Half Of 2017
The first half of the year may have been forgettable for a majority of the smart money and hedge funds, with nearly 80% once again underperforming their benchmarks due to months of P&L crushing short squeezes, but it was a buoyant time for equity markets and virtually all asset classes, for one simple reason: a record central bank liquidity injection of over $1.5 trillion YTD. Of course, that central banks had to flood markets with so much liquidity as the global economy is allegedly recovering is the main reason why nobody actually believes in said “recovery”, and neither do the central bankers. They did succeed however in ... -
Finance 0
Oil Slams On Brakes After Best Run Of The Year, As OPEC Production Jumps
A couple of weeks ago, we noted that according to the latest monthly report from OPEC (aside: if only drug cartels would release monthly reports), cartel crude output climbed the most since November in May. That’s amusing because that would be the same month of May during which OPEC met to make the production cut extension official. So they were extending production cuts just as production was rising at the fastest pace since the production cuts were announced. How fun is that, right? That was of course partially attributable to Libya and Nigeria, but that didn’t make it any less amusing. Well, fast forward to this week and accord... -
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Next Elliott Wave Target For Ethereum
There has been a lot of headlines lately as the world’s new favorite cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH/USD) soared +5,000% in value before the price dropped and it’s currently still up over 3,500%. Ethereum was only developed two years ago while bitcoin’s been around for almost eight years, many investors are expecting the ether token to take over in the coming months as it’s positioned to surpass bitcoin as the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap. We discussed in our previous article how ETH/USD was leading the way for BTCUSD and we expected another leg higher to take place toward 315 – 365 which was achieved then... -
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May 2017 Leading Index Review: Growth Trends Remain Mixed
This post is a review of all major leading indicators follows – and their trends remain mixed. Analyst Opinion of the Leading Indicator Forecasts Most of the leading indicators are based on factors which are known to have significant backward revisions – and one cannot take any of their trends to the bank. The only indicators with minimal backward revision are ECRI, RecessionALERT, and the Chemical Activity Barometer. Unfortunately, the Chemical Activity Barometer is targeted to the industrial sector of the economy – and at best seems to be a coincident indicator, not a leading indicator. The leading indicators are to a lar... -
Finance 0
Gold And Silver Price Drop Of July 3, 2017
The price of gold dropped from $1,241 as of Friday’s close to $1,219 on the close Monday, or -1.8%. The price of silver fell from $16.58 to $16.11, or -2.9%. It is being called a gold and silver “smash” (implication being that one party or a conspiracy is doing the smashing). Our goal is to help you develop a clear understanding. The move today is no mystery. Monetary Metals makes an intensive study of the spread between the spot market—where metal is bought and sold—and the futures market. Much analysis treats these market moves as mysterious, literally inexplicable except by reference to nefarious actors who are variously trying t... -
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Whispering ETFs
No less an authority than Tom McClellan went onto CNBC (“The Network That Never Knew a Bear Market”) yesterday to declare that the bull market would just keep rip-roaring away another year. Maybe. Maybe not. I wanted to show a couple of ETFs which I’m short that suggest otherwise, at least for the short-term. The first one is the emerging markets bond fund. Doesn’t exactly look healthy, does it? This is by far (by an order of 10 times) my biggest positions, and I’m cheerfully holding onto it. The other is long, but since it’s an ultrashort it’s bearish – – my principal ETF position, the QID, which is the double-inverse on... -
Finance 0
UK House Prices ‘On Brink’ Of Massive 40% Collapse
– UK house prices on brink of massive 40% collapse – UK at ‘edge of worst house price collapse since 1990s’ – Two leading economists warn of property crash – “We are due a significant correction in house prices” – Brexit and wages failing to keep up with inflation to trigger collapse – Trend starting in London before fanning out to rest of UK – UK homeowners unconcerned – 58% expect prices to rise – Over 1 million mortgages under threat in UK – Concerns of return of new “negative equity” generation – Huge denial amid recency bias and endowment bias – emotional attachment to expensive things we buy – ... -
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Mexico’s First-Quarter Growth Revised Higher
from the Dallas Fed — this post authored by Jesus Canas Mexico’s economy grew faster in first quarter 2017 than previously estimated. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.7 percent, according to the government’s second estimate. Consequently, the consensus 2017 GDP growth forecast was revised to 2 percent from 1.7 percent in April. Other, more recent data were mixed; employment growth improved, but exports, industrial production, and retail sales fell. Inflation rose further while the peso held steady against the dollar. Revisions Boost Output Growth Revisions to Mexico’s first-quarter GDP estimate boosted annualized growth fr... -
Finance 0
Gold Prices Fall Most In 7 Months As ISM Feeds Fed Rate Hike Bets
Gold prices suffered the largest decline in over seven months as US Treasury bond yields rose alongside the US Dollar, sapping the appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. A hawkish shift in Fed policy expectations probably accounted for the move. The priced-in probability of a hike at the September and December meetings of the rate-setting FOMC committee ticked up by 6.1 and 5.7 percentage points from the prior day, respectively. June’s surprisingly strong manufacturing ISM print may have driven the adjustment. Crude oil prices continued to recover in a move that seemed to echo Friday’s news-flow. Baker Hughes reported ... -
Finance 0
Sensex Finishes Flat; Pharma & FMCG Stocks Fall
Indian share markets continued to swing between gains and losses in the afternoon session as market participants booked profit in recent outperformers. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood lower by 12 points, while the NSE Nifty finished down by 2 points. Meanwhile, the S&P BSE Mid Cap & the S&P BSE Small Cap finished down by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Losses were largely seen in pharma stocks, auto stocks and FMCG stocks. Asian stock markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. The Hang Seng is down 1.53% while China’s Shanghai Composite is off 0.41% and Japan’...
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