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  • Finance 0

    The Golden Age Has Just Begun

    In recent issues of Seasonal Insights I have discussed two asset classes that tend to suffer performance problems in most years until the autumn, namely stocks and bitcoin.  I thought you might for a change want to hear of an asset that will be in a seasonal uptrend over coming months. Such assets do of course exist, and one that has particularly good prospects at the moment is gold. You may well have already heard that gold prices typically exhibit strength in the second half of the year. But when exactly does gold begin to rally, and how long does its strength last? A close Look at the Seasonal Trend in Gold Take a look at the seasonal ...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Bitcoin Markets Compared With Fiat, Gold, And Famous Billionaires

    Since 2009, Bitcoin has made a long road and has overcome many obstacles on its journey. The Bitcoin price has grown exponentially, and its market cap is at the time of writing over $41 bln, which is the same net worth of Google’s co-founder, Larry Page. Bill Gates, the richest man on earth with a net worth of $86 bln, has approximately the net worth of Larry Page and Bitcoin combined. In order to put into perspective what Bitcoin represents amongst all of the world’s money, Howmuch has produced a visualization full of insights. Bitcoin equals Morocco “Bitcoin is the Uber of cryptocurrencies: the biggest, baddest and best-known, but n...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Fed Officials Say More Hikes Are On The Way, Markets Disagree

    Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen says she is planning more hikes in the Fed funds rate, but you wouldn’t know it by watching the markets. So far, the response in foreign exchange, bonds, and equities isn’t what people expected. Markets have always been notorious for behaving unpredictably. But in an age when central bankers micromanage virtually all markets, the behavior could be the result of careful planning. Maybe the recent market action was only unpredictable for those of us outside of the FOMC conference room. Officials hiked rates in December, March, and June. Despite that, the U.S. dollar has fallen to its lowest levels in ...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Oil Plunges As Russia ‘Throws Cold Water’ On Bull Thesis

    First thing this morning, we noted that crude fell off a cliff just after 4:30 a.m. EST. That move lower was blamed on Brent’s inability to move above $50. Whatever you want to say about it, the fact is that it came on the heels of oil slamming on the brakes after its longest run of gains this year (for Brent the longest run since 2012), a run which itself followed crude’s collapse into bear market territory last month. Between news that OPEC production rose to its highest this year in June and Russia refusing to back any proposal for deeper production cuts, the tone has turned decidedly bearish again. Fast forward several hours and ...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Dismal Data Sends Stocks Back To Highs But Bonds Ain’t Buying It

    Stocks “V-shaped” recovery off the lows, thanks to a good squeeze in FANG stocks, is blindly ignoring the tumble in WTI crude, the drop in Treasury yields, and the weakness in USD/JPY…   And the bottom hit when the dismal factory orders data hit…   So what happens next?...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Merck Seen As Having Potential ‘Category Killer’ In HIV Market

    Investors are underestimating the negative impact that upcoming macro trends and potential government actions could have on the HIV drug market, warned Citi. As a result, the firm downgraded GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), whose joint venture, ViiV, has a leading HIV treatment. The firm believes Gilead Sciences (GILD) would have an advantage over other players in the market if the Affordable Care Act, or ACA is not repealed, while Merck’s (MRK) HIV treatment, contrary to market expectations, could be a “category killer.” The Street, which sees the HIV market as primarily a battle between Gilead and ViiV, has an “oversimplified&...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Market Cap To GDP: An Updated Look At The Buffett Valuation Indicator

    Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The four valuation indicators we track in our monthly valuation overview offer a long-term perspective of well over a century. The raw data for the “Buffett indicator” only goes back as far as the middle of the 20th century. Quarterly GDP dates from 1947, and the Fed’s balance sheet has quarterly updates beginning in Q4 1951. With an acknowledg...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD: S/T Valuation Model Still Points To Further Correction – BTMU

    EUR/USD suffered after an ECB member showed caution regarding a new policy move. Is the correction over? Not so fast. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: BTMU FX Strategy Research argues that the latest EUR/USD rally is partly a reaction to an extreme dollar over-valuation fuelled more by extreme monetary accommodation beyond the US than by monetary tightening in the US. “Hence, the prospect of that ending is resulting in out-sized FX moves like we have had in recent weeks,” BTMU adds. “Our Short-term Valuation model clearly indicates that EUR/USD has overshot and point to the risk of a short-term correction after the recent s...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Canada Racing Down The Wrong Track

    U.S. auto sales peaked in 2016 and fell for a fourth consecutive month in June, while sales in Canada hit a fresh record in the first half of 2017 on an 8.8% increase in light truck sales thanks to (misplaced?) business confidence in construction and oil. Passenger car sales, on the other hand, declined 2%. It’s worth noting that passenger sales have been contracting despite unprecedented incentives and give-a-ways from dealers. Consider the below car add from the Financial Post this week. You can lease a brand new 2017 Mazda 3GX in Canada with $1795 down (on your credit card) and ‘bi-weekly payments’ of $89 for 5 years. What is the a...
    On July 5, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EC Federal Realty Investment Trust: A Dividend Aristocrat And One Of The Best REITs In The World

    Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are the best and easiest way for income investors to profit from rental properties without any of the hassle, paperwork, or illiquidity that goes with personally owning real estate. Of course, now that interest rates are rising for the first time in nearly a decade, many investors are concerned about whether it’s a good time to invest in this high-yield sector. Fortunately, the highest-quality REITs have proven track records of growing in all manner of economic and interest rate environments. None more so than Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), which is one of America’s oldest REITs and has grown ...
    On July 5, 2017 / By