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FV China Property And Investment Outlook
In this video, we discuss the outlook for China’s property market, real estate fixed asset investment, and the implications for commodities. The video focuses on a topic from a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. The discussion focuses on how property prices in China have gone from bust to boom, and the boom now looks to be maturing. The leading indicators we track suggest price growth will decelerate in the coming months and that could culminate in a property market downturn into 2018. Historically the pattern is that slower property price growth or a downturn in property prices would lead to slower or even contracting r... -
Finance 0
Fed Succeeds In Not Rocking The Boat – Focus On The NFP
The meeting minutes from the Fed decision succeeded in keeping markets calm. Perhaps too calm. There was no real clear signal from the minutes. The beginning of the balance sheet reduction may come in September or perhaps in December. The same goes for the rate hike, although December is more likely. All in all, the minutes left all the options open and volatility remained comatose. What the Fed told us this time and basically for the past few years is that they are data-dependent. While the recent shrugging off of inflation shows that sometimes they ignore the data, we can still expect a reaction to the upcoming events. The Non-Farm Payrolls... -
Finance 0
NFP Preview: Will U.S. Hiring Bounce Back In June?
With NFP (nonfarm payrolls) to be released tomorrow, traders are beginning to wonder whether job creation will bounce back in June or continue down the path of slower growth. Although the U.S. economy meets the Federal Reserve’s definition of full employment, significant imbalances remain. The NFP in May Employers added 138,000 workers to payrolls in May, Labor Department data showed last month. That was well below the median estimate calling for 185,000. Unemployment fell to a new 16-year low of 4.3%, but came at the expense of workforce participation. The percentage of working-age Americans employed or actively seeking employment slippe... -
Finance 0
38 Incredible Facts On The Modern U.S. Dollar
The Money Project is an ongoing collaboration between Visual Capitalist and Texas Precious Metals that seeks to use intuitive visualizations to explore the origins, nature, and use of money. We’ve previously showed you 31 Fascinating Facts About the Dollar’s Early History, which highlighted the history of U.S. currency before the 20th century. This was a very interesting period in which we looked at the money used by the first colonists, the extreme bust of the Continental currency, the era of privately-issued bank notes, and Congress’ emergency issuance of the fiat “greenback” during the Civil War. However, the modern era of t... -
Finance 0
Asian Stocks Seek Direction As Oil Struggles
U.S. crude prices plummeted over 4 percent on Wednesday afternoon, breaking an eight-day uptick, the longest oil rally in five years. In the early part of Thursday’s Asian session oil continued searching for direction, with U.S. WTI crude futures trading at $45.41 per barrel, up 0.62 percent at 9:40 a.m. HK/SIN. Brent futures were up 0.65 percent to $48.10 per barrel. Wednesday’s fluctuation in oil pricing was caused in part by an increase in OPEC exports which increased for the second consecutive month in June. OPEC exported 25.92 million barrels per day in June, an increase of 450,000 barrels per day from May and 1.9 million more barrel... -
Finance 0
US Dollar May Rise If ISM, ADP Data Stoke Fed Rate Hike Bets
The Japanese Yen outperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade. Regional stocks declined, offering support to the standby anti-risk currency. Newswires attributed the sour mood to worries about further Fed tightening after minutes form the FOMC’s June meeting struck a hawkish tone. Futures markets now imply a better-than-even chance of another rate hike before year-end, an outcome seen as unlikely just a week ago. From here, a lackluster European data docket may see the markets looking ahead to US releases. A private-sector estimate of US jobs growth from ADP and the ISMnon-manufacturing survey are due. Both are expected to show deter... -
Finance 0
Forex Strength And Comparison For July 2017
In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was the strongest currency while the JPY was the weakest. There were some significant changes last month with the AUD and CAD gaining 4 points strength. The JPY lost 4 points and the CHF 3 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 2 points. 12 Months Currency Score Strength The 12 Months Currency Strength and the 12 Months Average are provided here below. This data and the “12 months Currency Classification” are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change th... -
Finance 0
Share Markets In India Open Flat; Lupin Top Gainer
Asian equity markets are lower today as Chinese and Hong Kong shares fall. The Shanghai Composite is off 0.08%, while the Hang Seng is down 0.03%. The Nikkei 225 is trading down by 0.27%. Most of the European markets ended Wednesday’s session with nominal gains. Meanwhile, share markets in India have opened the day on a flattish note. The BSE Sensex is trading higher by 29 points, while the NSE Nifty is trading higher by 7 points. The BSE Mid Cap Index and BSE Small Cap index opened the day up by 0.3% & 0.4% respectively. Barring power stock, metal stocks and information technology stocks, all sectoral indices hav... -
Finance 0
June 2017 Cash Deficit: $23B
The US Cash Deficit for June 2017 came in at $23B compared to last June’s $19B surplus primarily due to timing. With July 1 on a Saturday, about $40B of cost that was due in early July was paid 6/30, creating an increase in June outlays that will be offset by a decrease in July. If you put it adjust for that, 2016 and 2017 are pretty much running equal as 2017’s ~+3% growth in outlays has been offset by a ~+3.5% increase in revenue. So far, no evidence of any real change being terribly likely in 2017… no tax cuts, no infrastructure spending, no huge economic growth…just more of the same, not that I am complaining :)…it makes t... -
Finance 0
Should We Believe Greg Ip About Recessions?
On Wednesday, Greg Ip opined that we should start worrying about a recession. He is the chief economics commentator for the WSJ. He held a similar position for the Economist, and he has written several books. As a journalist with an economics background, his mission is to understand the key economic concepts and help his readers to understand. It is something like what I do, except that he has a much larger audience! I also must manage portfolios and my business, so writing is a sideline – albeit one which I love. I read Mr. Ip’s work regularly and normally find it to be informed and helpful. That is why his column today was so disturbi...
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