Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year’s all-time high: Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral Long-term outlook (next year): neutral The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.7% on Wednesday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors reacted to economic data announcements, among others. The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since end of May on Thursday a week ago, as it got closer t...
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP June estimate of 158K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease over May’s 230K, which was a downward revision of 23K. The 158K estimate came in below the Investing.com consensus of 185K for the ADP number. The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is also for 179K nonfarm new jobs (the ac...
After jumping heroically in May, ADP reported a disappointing 158k employment gain in June (188k exp.) and revised May’s exuberance notably lower (253k to 230k). While ‘soft’ survey data suggests employment should be re-surging, the hard numbers are disappointing again… Medium-sized firms dominated the gains (+91k vs Small firms 17k and Large firms +50k). Perhaps most notable for President Trump is that all 158k of the gains came in the Service-Producing sector of the economy – Goods-Producing Sector gained zero jobs. “Despite a slight moderation in the month of June, the labor market remains strong,” sai...
This is just a warning. If gold breaks below the May low in the next day or two I will exit the DUST position just in case gold is about to complete its DCL. Remember a break below support is the least risky spot to buy as ones stop is actually above price. So while it would seem that breaking the May low would unleash heavy selling it’s more likely hedge funds will be buying a break of the May low. That buying may be enough to trigger the DCL. This might correspond to a marginal break of the December low in silver. At this point I tend to believe we will need one more daily cycle to complete the ICL and that means we will have another boun...
Precious metals are “real assets” and “best defense” against bail-ins and cashless society in the economic crisis which is “on its way” The risks posed to investors and savers from the coming economic crisis and the threat of bank bail-ins, negative interest rates, ‘helicopter money,’ capital controls and the “cashless society” has been looked at in an excellent and timely article by economist John Adams, writing in the Daily Telegraph. While the article is focused on how these risks threaten Australia and Australian investors and savers, the risks outlined are ones which threaten even those with modest amounts of we...
Has EUR/USD ended its correction to the downside? A lot depends on the Non-Farm Payrolls, but the euro has its own reasons to rise. The ECB released its meeting minutes and it shows they discussed removing the easing bias. This was enough to send EUR/USD to 1.1386, already more than 50% of the correction from the peak of 1.1445 to 1.1312. These are minutes from the June meeting. At the time, the ECB removed the “downside risks” and shifted to balanced risks. They also removed the reference to even lower rates. However, Draghi did express concern about inflation, saying that core CPI hasn’t basically changed too much. In addition, the fo...
Indian share markets trimmed some of their early gains in the afternoon session but still finished the trading session on a firm note. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 124 points, while the NSE Nifty finished up by 37 points. Meanwhile, the S&P BSE Mid Cap & the S&P BSE Small Cap finished up by 0.3% respectively. Gains were largely seen in realty stocks, PSU stocks, auto stocks and FMCG stocks. PSU bank stocks rallied in today’s trade with Indian Bank share price and Central Bank share price leading the gains. SBI share price surged 2.1% in today’s trade. Asian stock markets f...
With a record 8,640 retail stores expected to close in 2017, American malls are desperate to draw in customers as America’s retail apocalypse leaves them littered with empty store fronts. Now, some are experimenting with a model that worked for some movie theaters: Invest in restaurants and popular amenities like rock-climbing walls to sell customers a better shopping “experience.” To wit, Bloomberg spoke with the owner of the Newgate Mall, which plans to pour $500,000 into overhauling the outdated food court in a bid to lure restaurateurs and hungry shoppers. Rent payments from eateries are never going to recoup the renovat...
US Census says manufacturing new orders declined. Our analysis is the opposite. Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was civilian and defense aircraft that caused the decrease – although there was a general weakness throughout. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely on the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages which improved.. Note that when one inflation adjusts, the numbers are worse than the headlines. Backlog of orders deterioration returned and remains in contraction year-over-year. US Census Headline: The seasonally adjusted manufacturing new orders is down 0.8 % m...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to rise in June. GMI, an unmanaged market-value weighted portfolio of the major asset classes, is projected to earn an annualized 5.6% (over the “risk-free” rate) in the long run – 20 basis points above last month’s estimate. Adjusting for short-term momentum and longer-term mean-reversion factors (defined below) pares GMI’s ex ante risk premium to an annualized 5.2%. Meanwhile, the trend for GMI’s risk-premium performance in recent history ticked lower in June. The benchmark’s risk premium slipped to an annualized 4.0% for the three years through last mont...