Latest Posts
-
Finance 0
Balance Of Trade Deficit Near Expectations: Analyzing The Impact On Second Quarter GDP
Today the BEA reported the US trade deficit was $-46.5 billion. The Econoday economists’ consensus estimate of $-46.2 billion for international trade was nearly on the mark, but the advance reading on goods pointed the way. The nation’s trade gap came in very near expectations in May, at $46.5 billion vs Econoday’s consensus for $46.2 billion and under April’s $47.6 billion. Exports rose a constructive 0.4 percent in the month to $192.0 billion while, in another positive for the deficit, imports edged 0.1 percent lower to $238.5 billion. The strength in exports is centered once again in services where the surplus rose 1.0 percent to... -
Finance 0
Economic Theory: Limitations And Biases
Arnold Kling tackles the hardy perennial topic “How Effective is Economic Theory?” in the Summer 2017 issue of National Affairs. His overall approach is to focus on “five interlocking subjects in particular: mathematical modeling, homo economicus, objectivity, testing procedures, and the particular status of the sub-discipline of macroeconomics.” He then compares and contrasts what economists were saying about those subjects in 1966 and 1980, compared with his views on current patterns. For details, read the essay! But here are few excerpts that caught my eye and may give some flavor of his discussion: “Ec... -
Finance 0
Forming Trading Rules In A Neutral Mindset With Mark Gardner
Audio Length:00:56:13 Mark Gardner began working in the field at 17-years old, straight out of high school. Initially he began with back office duties, before broking on the floor of the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Then later he was picked up by a large Bank Bills trader to exclusively execute trades, and who he learned a great deal from. Around 2005, Mark started trading his own book. Over the 10-years that followed, Mark had only two losing months—and to date, he’s never encountered a losing year. Though in 2015 he did suffer a substantial blow, losing months and months worth of gains in the space of just a few short hours. Today, Ma... -
Finance 0
Stocks Going Ex Dividend The Second Week Of July
Here is our latest update on the stock trading technique called ‘Buying Dividends,’ also commonly referred to as ‘Dividend Capture.’ This is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend. This technique generally works only in bull markets, and can work in flat or choppy markets, but you need to avoid the technique during bear markets. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can’t sell the stock until after the ex date. The actual dividend may ... -
Finance 0
Silver Cycle Model Chart – Thursday, July 6th
2017.05.26 Silver Cycle Model Chart The silver cycle model is performing well, as can be seen from the previous iteration below and on my blog. A Spring peak in price was anticipated. If the model is correct, we should see a temporary low in the August/September time frame. As expected, the turning points are better predicted than the magnitude at the turning points, something to keep in mind when interpreting these cyclical models. 2017.03.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart ... -
Finance 0
EURUSD – 1.1500 In View?
The euro continues to be on a tear as ECB is clearly moving towards a taper sooner rather than later. Although ECB officials continue to warn that inflation is still subdued, they clearly see that the EZ economy is recovering and will likely provide guidance about beginning to tighten QE relatively soon. The EURUSD, as a result, has shot higher despite the fact that US monetary policy makers also have a hawkish bias. At this point, the trade is in relative expectations. German Bund yields today hit a 1.5 year high and the yield differential between US rates and German rates continues to compress. Tomorrow NFPs could trip euro longs, but only ... -
Finance 0
Time For A New Gold Standard For Asia
Over half the world’s population, living in the Eurasian land mass, understands that gold is money. The leaders of the Asian nations also know that this is true as well. The leaders of the security and economic alliance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which now incorporates most of these peoples, also know that to become independent of Western hegemony and to forge their own way, they must abandon Western financial systems and markets, replacing them with a new monetary order, serving their own needs. This is demonstrated in the establishment of parallel multinational financial institutions, duplicating and replacing dollar-centri... -
Finance 0
Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Friday’s (July 7) Job Report
The unemployment rate will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this Friday, July 7th. Alongside unemployment, Average Hourly Earnings and Change in Nonfarm Payrolls will also be reported. Estimize consensus: Unemployment rate: 4.5% Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3% Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 185K We are predicting the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 4.5%. Some economists are claiming that the natural level of unemployment sits at 4.3% which would mean we are nearing full employment. However, full employment does not mean everyone is at a job they would prefer. Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to come in at 185,000, which would b... -
Finance 0
WTI/RBOB Jump After Major Inventory Draw Despite Biggest Production Surge In 6 Months
Oil bounced notably overnight after a surprisingly large crude build reported by API, but there was some selling in QTI/RBOB into today’s DOE data, but that ended quickly as DOE reported major inventory draws across the board sending WTI spiking above $46. However, after last week’s drop, US crude production (in the Lower 48) soared by its most in 6 months. API Crude -5.8mm (-2.5mm exp) Cushing -1.4mm Gasoline -5.7mm Distillates +400k DOE Crude -6.299mm (-2mm exp) Cushing -1.334mm (-700k exp) Gasoline -3.669mm (-1.8mm exp) Distillates -1.85mm (+500k exp) Draws across the board… … which as Bloomberg summarizes, “... -
Finance 0
National Bank Of Greece Breaks Out
We forecasted more than 2 months ago that the Greek stock market, and in particular the stocks of the National Bank of Greece, would do very well. That appears to be another spot-on forecast. Early June, we flashed this breakout alert: National Bank Of Greece Starting A New Bull Market? Mid May, we wrote Greek Stock Market Buy Signal For 2017 and 2018. Early May, we recommended to look at the National Bank of Greece, saying that National Bank Stock Crashes 99 Pct In 24 Months, Could Be The Next Ten-Bagger Right now, it is crystal clear from the National Bank of Greece’s stock chart that the breakout is confirmed. The stock trades at $0.4...
Top Posts
-
The Importance for Individuals to Use Sustainable Chemicals
-
Small Businesses: Finding the Right Candidate for the Job
-
How to Write the Perfect Thank You Letter After Your Job Interview
-
3 Best Large-Cap Blend Mutual Funds For Enticing Returns
-
China suspected in massive breach of federal personnel data
