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Beyond Politics: The Real Reason Behind Economic Data Revisions
Image Source: DepositPhotos Data revisions or political data manipulation? When revised data support the in-group’s political policies, members of the out-group sometime allege that the numbers were cooked for partisan advantage. But the tension between speed and accuracy better explains data revisions than nefarious activity.The monthly employment report provides a good example. Market analysts and traders watch it closely, particularly the number of jobs added or lost. That data usually comes out the first Friday of the following month. So August 2024 data will be released September 6.Now consider that the United States has nearly 12 mill... -
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Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Developments And An Incoming Data Flood
Image Source: Unsplash China: Monthly data dump before mid-autumn Ahead of the mid-autumn festival next week, China publishes its August data dump on Saturday morning. We are generally looking for another month of sluggish growth data this month, with the three big economic activity indicators of industrial production (5.1% prior, 4.8% forecast), fixed asset investment (3.6% prior, 3.5% forecast), and retail sales (2.7% prior, 2.5% forecast) all expected to moderate.Once again, we will be watching the 70-city housing price data closely, looking for signs of stabilisation. Prices have declined at a slower rate in the last two months but the... -
Finance 0
Election Impact On The Economy
Image Source: DepositPhotosAlhambra CEO Joe Calhoun provides his take on the impact of the presidential debate and presidential elections on the stock market and economy. Video Length: 00:13::51More By This Author:Weekly Recap And DARP Update – Saturday, Sept. 14Weekly Recap And DARP Update – Saturday, Sept. 7Weekly Recap And DARP Update – Friday, Aug. 30... -
Finance 0
When Should The New York Department Of Financial Services Have Rehabilitated American Transit Insurance?
Hey! Maybe we can grow our way out of the problem!At one point in time, I was a Fellow in the Society of Actuaries, a Life Actuary specializing in investment issues. Eventually, I was hired by a hedge fund to analyze all types of insurance stocks. I knew some things about reserving outside of life insurance, but I had to learn more to become competent at understanding what made for good insurance stocks.I learned that good P&C management teams state their financials conservatively, and aim for adequate margins over growth. They set reserves for the current year’s business high (conservative), so that in most cases reserves for busines... -
Finance 0
XPDUSD Trading Strategy: Palladium Analysis & Forecast
More By This Author:GOLD Daily Analysis, XAUUSD Analysis & XAUUSD Forecast – Friday, September 13 Gold Reached 2525.80, Next Move Follows, XAUUSD Analysis & XAUUSD Forecast GOLD Targeting Next Resistance, XAUUSD Analysis & XAUUSD Forecast – Wednesday, September 11... -
Finance 0
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept. 16 & 23
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data Forecast Prior Observation Week of September 16 September 16 New York Fed Manufacturing Index -3.7 -4.7 September 17 Retail Sales – August 0.3% 1.0 Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.5 0.4 Retail Sales, Less Autos and Gas 0.5 0.4 Retail Sales, Gas Industrial Production – August 0.1% -0.6 Capacity Utilization 77.8 77.8 Manufacturing -0.2 -0.3 Business Inventories – July 0.4% 0.3 NAHB Index 39 39 September 18 Housing Starts – August 1.... -
Finance 0
CoT On The Future Through Futures, Hedge Funds Positioning
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2024.10-year note: Currently net short 1,022.1k, up 19.3k.The FOMC begins a two-day meeting next Tuesday. This will be the sixth meeting this year, and two more remain – in November (6-7) and December (17-18).The policy-setting body is due to begin an easing cycle. The fed funds rate has been left unchanged between 525 basis points and 550 basis points since July last year. Earlier, the Federal Reserve began to tighten in March 2022 after leaving the rates zero-bound in a range of zero to 25 basis points for two whole years. Going into Wednesday’s CPI report for Aug... -
Finance 0
ETF Focus – Precious Metals
It was another terrific week for precious metals, an asset whose strength I applaud. Here we see GLD escaped from its ascending price channel and seems to have slapped on its turbo boosters. The longer-term continuous contract of futures prices shows how massive this cup-with-handle pattern is. I fully expect $3,000 per ounce in 2025. Miners, too, joined the party, although they look due for some “backing and filling” soon.And even Canada, a county that happens to sit on a bunch of the yellow metal, seemed to have been lifted up by the strength of the metal.More By This Author:Metals Mania A Gap In GMTriple Pain... -
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Silver Trading Strategy – XAGUSD Analysis & Forecast
More By This Author:GOLD Daily Analysis, XAUUSD Analysis & XAUUSD Forecast – Friday, September 13 Gold Reached 2525.80, Next Move Follows, XAUUSD Analysis & XAUUSD Forecast GOLD Targeting Next Resistance, XAUUSD Analysis & XAUUSD Forecast – Wednesday, September 11... -
Finance 0
Weekly Technical Update: Nasdaq 100 – Saturday, Sept 14
Image Source: PixabayThis week I continue to begin on the 3-year weekly chart for the NDX (cash) and the focus remains on the move off of the July 11th highs which completed the Minor 3rd wave. Since that point the NDX has been tracing out the Minor 4th wave correction. Today I’m presenting what I believe are the 3 different scenarios that could be unfolding. I also feel that we will arrive at the completion point for Minor 4 if it is not complete and the resolution of which of the 3 scenarios is in force on Wednesday at 2 PM EDT when the FED announcement comes out. I also include today a continued discussion of the “flows”...
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