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Taper Tantrum 2.0 Dominates
Taper Tantrum 2.0, emanating from Europe rather than the United States continues to overshadow other developments. Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year German Bund pushed through the 50 bp mark that has capped the occasional rise in yields in recent months. The record of the ECB meeting was understood as indicating that the official assessment had surpassed the actual communication in order try to minimize the impact. Comments from the ECB’s Coeure seemed to point in the same direction. European bond yields are edging higher again today. US yields were dragged higher but still lagged behind the backing up of European yields. This r... -
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Forex Friday – July 7, 2017
Non-Farm Payrolls today and taking the risk here and calling my Dollar bullish case before the announcement….as I believe that technically we should expect Dollar to bounce….overall…and not in all pairs…. EUR/USD First chart. 1.13 is critical trend support. 4 hour chart shows how price respected the Kumo support and bounced off it. Cloud support is between 1.1360-1.13. Inside it we are neutral. Breaking below it we turn bearish agreeing with the above chart. Daily trend line resistance has been reached and already got rejected once. Will we break it or get rejected again. If the rejection comes as I expect….we will also break 1.13... -
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Gold Prices May Fall As US Jobs Data Stokes Fed Rate Hike Bets
Gold prices paid little attention to the mixed bag of US data releases yesterday, opting to consolidate in a now-familiar range that has contained prices following a sharp plunge earlier in the week. The ADP estimate of US jobs growth undershot expectations but the ISM measure of service-sector activity growth vastly outperformed. Crude oil prices attempted a spirited recovery, hitting an intraday high as weekly EIA inventory flow data echoed API estimates with a larger-than-expected drawdown, but the onset of risk aversion undermined momentum. Indeed, the WTI would go on to erase earlier gains, falling alongside the S&P 500 to fini... -
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Oil Exports Are Not The Same As Net Oil Exports
A NYT piece on the growth of oil exports may have given readers a misleading impression on the state of the U.S. oil industry. The piece was headlined, “oil exports, illegal for decades, now fuel a Texas port boom.” It told readers: “Oil exports grew slowly through most of 2016, but this year there has been a surge reaching 1.3 million barrels a day — roughly 15 percent of domestic production — which even at today’s depressed prices is worth more than $1.5 billion a month.” It is worth noting that the rise in oil exports has been accompanied by a rise in oil imports. According to the Energy Information Agency, ... -
Finance 0
Tesla Registrations Plunge 24% In California, Its Largest Market
After a week full of abysmal news for Tesla, which some have said is rapidly becoming the new Uber on the bad-to-worse news front, the weekend couldn’t come fast enough for Elon Musk who by now is begging for the simple company of “a little red wine, vintage record and some Ambien.” A little red wine, vintage record, some Ambien … and magic! — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) company of But before that can happen, there is even more bad news for the electric car company which today entered a bear market after hitting all time highs just 2 weeks ago: according to Reuters, Tesla registrations in California – by far the l... -
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GBP/USD Falls On Weak Trade, Manufacturing Data
The UK trade deficit came out at 11.8 billion, worse than 10.8 billion expected. In addition, the previous figure was revised to the downside. Industrial output dropped by 0.1% m/m, worse than 0.4% expected. Year over year, production is down 0.2% against 0.2% expected. Manufacturing is down 0.2% instead of 0.5% predicted. Year over year, the rise is only 0.4% instead of 1% that was on the cards. GBP/USD is falling from 1.2950 to 1.2915. Earlier, cable traded in a narrow range, in anticipation of the US Non-Farm Payrolls. These are not top-tier figures, but when all of them go in one direction, it has an impact. Earlier, the Halifax HPI showe... -
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ISM PMI’s Point To A Mixed Payrolls Report
The ISM’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, released earlier this week, suggest that while the activity in both the sectors has improved from a month ago, the employment sub-indexes painted a mixed picture. The ISM’s manufacturing data showed that the employment index rose to 57.2, compared to 53.5 in May. But the non-manufacturing data of the employment index fell 2 points, to 55.8 in June. The data suggests that the pace of job growth could continue to remain subdued. Analysts are expecting that the US economy added 175k jobs, compared to 138k jobs seen the month before. The focus will, of course, be on the average earnings w... -
Finance 0
Stock Exchange: How Can We Trade Geopolitical Risks?
Expert Picks from the Models This week’s choices include several market sectors. Roadrunner: Align Technology (ALGN) is my pick of the week. Regular readers may remember that I picked this one up a little over a month ago, near the end of May. I might as well take you through the whole thing; it’s a good explanation of how I work. I choose stocks when the price is near the bottom of the trading channel. This was definitely the case when I staked out my initial position on 5/25. By 6/23, the stock had appreciated just over 8%, up to around $151 per share. Not only was this a sizeable gain, but also it put the price near the top of the cha... -
Finance 0
Upbeat U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report To Tame EUR/USD Advance
– U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) to Rise Less Than 200K for Fourth Consecutive Month. – Annualized Average Hourly Earnings to Pick Up for First Time Since February. Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may tame the near-term advance in EUR/USD as both job and wage growth are projected to pick up in June. Why Is This Event Important: With the U.S. economy nearing full-employment, signs of higher household earnings may boost the appeal of the greenback as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months. Chair Janet... -
Finance 0
Friday Charts: Overly Bullish Analysts And The Dumbest Trade In The Market
If you’re new to the Wall Street Daily nation, here’s the rundown… I’ve embraced the adage that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” So each Friday, I hand-select compelling graphics to put the week’s investment news into perspective. All it takes is a quick glance and you’ll be up to speed — this time, regarding analyst sentiment, digital disruption and the dumbest trade in the market. Whoever said achieving enlightenment isn’t easy? Enjoy! Consensus or Contrarian Sell-side analysts are notoriously liberal with their buy ratings and stingy with their sell ratings. At any given time, buy ratings outnumber sell ratings ...
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