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  • Finance 0

    Economy To Cruise Near Speed Limit In 2017 And 2018 Even As Auto Sales Downshift

    from the Chicago Fed — this post authored by William A. Strauss and Thomas Haasl According to participants in the Chicago Fed’s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation’s economic growth is forecasted to be near its long-term average this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2018. Inflation is expected to increase in 2017 and to hold steady in 2018. The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge lower to 4.4% by the end of 2017 and to remain at that rate through 2018. Light vehicle sales are predicted to decrease from 17.5 million units in 2016 to 17.1 million units in 2017 and then to 16.9 million units in 2018. The Federal Rese...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Forecast: Bullish Zig Zag

    *** EUR/GBP – SHORT TERM ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS *** The trend is bullish in EUR/GBP currency pair, 15 minutes time frame. As I have suggested few hours ago during my daily Live Trading Room session, the price of EUR/GBP pair is going to rise up more now on a short-term basis to print a corrective bullish Zig Zag Elliott wave pattern and traders should look for a buy trade. Strong key support level is present at 0.8795 price level. Price action in the EUR/GBP currency pair is now likely to rise up more to complete the bullish Zig Zag corrective wave pattern, A, B and C legs. Based on Elliott wave forecast, bullish Wave C is the last bullish l...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Is Weak Business-Loan Growth A Warning Sign For The Economy?

    Commercial and industrial lending in the US has been flat for the past six months, the longest stretch of sluggishness in six years. The static trend is weighing on the year-over-year change: business loans increased by just 2.0% in May, the softest increase since 2011, according to Federal Reserve data. Nonetheless, recession risk remains low, based on data published through May, and near-term projections suggest that slow-to-moderate growth for the economy will prevail. But the stronger headwind in business lending deserves attention as a possible warning sign for the US economic recovery, which marked its eighth birthday last month – ...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Dollar May Rise On Jobs Data, G20 Meeting Threatens Volatility

    The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade after the BOJ stepped in to push back against rising long-term bond yields. The British Pound also traded lower, falling alongside front-end UK borrowing costs. The move followed a disappointing round of industrial production and trade figures that seemingly weighed against near-term BOE rate hike expectations. The Australian Dollar rose as the spread between local 10-year government bond yields and US equivalents widened. This hints that gains may have reflected pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming release of June’s US employment statistics, with yesterday’s soft private-sector...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Bond Rout Fades With Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls; Pound, Yen, Oil Tumble

    S&P futures are little changed following yesterday’s rout even as Asian and European markets continued selling; the pound slid on poor factory data, the yen tumbled after the BOJ intervened to stabilize the JGB bond market, precious metals flash crashed early in the session, while the sell-off in oil accelerated despite yesterday’s massive inventory draw, although at least yesterday’s sharp bond tantrum has stabilized. MSCI’s gauge of global stocks was at its lowest since late May’s record highs and down 0.6% for the week. Global stocks are poised to end the week at six-week lows in the face of oil weakness...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekend Reading: Oil & Retail Send A Warning

    There are two important areas of the market that have historically been good leading indicators of the strength, or weakness, of the markets and the economy. Oil and retail. Currently, both areas are sending warning signs that should not be readily dismissed. First, with respect to oil, the bounce in oil following the crash in prices that began in 2014 resulted not only in the bulk of the decline in earnings initially but also the recovery in earnings with the bounce. However, that bounce has now faded but forward earnings expectations have likely not been revised lower. Per FactSet, the energy sector is expected currently to post a 396% gain...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Bullet Report: Top 5 Things Happening In The Market Today – Friday, July 7

    Top 5 Things to Know Before You Start Trading This morning the main anticipated event is the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. We also see movement in silver and a global equity sell-off. Finally tension flares between Saudi and Qatar.  1 – NFP Report Out Today The main focus today is the US NFP report for June. Expectations are that 180,000 jobs were created, however, yesterday’s ADP jobs report put some downside risks to this forecast. Today the Fed is due to release the monetary policy report ahead of Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress next week. The big events continue today with the G20 summit beginning. 2 – ECB Minutes Offer...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    GBP: Is BoE Defending GBP Credibility? What’s The Trade? – Barclays

    The pound is still confused from the quickly-changing stance of Mark Carney, but also of his colleagues. What’s next? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research notes that the recent hawkish stance of the BoE following Governor Carney’s speech last week come could likely be an attempt by the central bank to defend the credibility of GBP. “We had long expected the BoE’s MPC members to support the currency by means of an eventual disagreement on the course of monetary policy amid high inflation forecasts and, in our view, the BoE is largely defending the credibility of GBP as a store of value ami...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekly Commodities Wrap: Dollar Rebound Weighs On Metals

    Copper: Rally Reverses As Dollar Rebounds The red metal drifted lower this week linked mainly to a recovery in the US Dollar, which made a small recovery after suffering weeks of declines, though also due to supply environment issues. Adding extra pressure to the red metal this week was the reported surge in warehouse inventories in China. LME reported inventories have exploded by 47% from June 28th to 213,000 tonnes. Despite this bearish element, the sell-off was stemmed as traders reacted to reports that Chilean miner Antofagasta was potentially facing a strike. Workers and supervisors at two of the group’s mines are continuing with contr...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    USDX Elliott Wave View: Downside Resumes

    Short term USDX (USD Index) Elliott Wave view suggests the rally to the 97.88 high on 6/20 ended Intermediate wave (X). Decline from there is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure with extension and ended at the 95.47 low on 6/29. This 5 wave move could be a Minor wave A of an Elliott wave zigzag structure structure, where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 97.17 and Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 97.47. Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 96.15, Minute wave ((iv)) at 96.61 and Minute wave ((v)) of A ended at 95.47. Revised view calls for Minor wave B bounce completed at 96.52. For this view, a break below Minor wave A at 95.47 will add m...
    On July 7, 2017 / By