Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    Bond Rout

    Nothing ever goes in a straight line. For every rally there will inevitably be a retracement, a minor sell-off often of no more than profit taking. These are generally pausing where a durable trend either overcomes doubts or succumbs to them. In the stock market, they call it the wall of worry. In bonds, it’s become a bit more complicated. At this particular moment, US Treasuries are again being sold. It’s really not to this point all that much, but you wouldn’t know it from the commentary trying to describe it. The headlines all scream in unison BOND ROUT! It is in many ways the opposite of stocks, where even larger corrections (like ...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Growth Index Continues Decline In 2017

    Today’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.0, up 0.9 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 5.26%, up from 5.19% the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.7, down from the previous week and its lowest since April 2016. “China Trade Masks Key U.S. Gains” ECRI’s most recent headline article highlights the importance of breaking down the trade deficit to reveal the structural nature of the trend over time. Once the cyclical component of the trade deficit is stripped out, the structural remains and...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Rising Interest Rates Could Present A Problem For Risk Assets

    Exactly one year ago I wrote, “long bonds enter the blowoff stage” (and “a few more thoughts on the long bond blowoff“). Since then the 30-year Treasury yield has risen 40% and the 10-year Treasury yield has risen 75%. This is an important development for investors to take note of because when interest rates have risen this rapidly in the past it has typically led to some stormy weather for risk assets.  ...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Five Best-Performing Mutual Funds Of First-Half 2017

    All the key indexes witnessed significant milestones in the first half of this year, with both the Dow and S&P 500 registering their best growth since the same period in 2013. Additionally, a significant jump in tech stocks benefited the tech-laden index, Nasdaq, which posted its best first-half performance since 2009.  Initially, optimism over President Donald Trump-led pro-growth economic policies boosted markets in the early part of this period. After expectations over Trump-led economic policies fizzled, investors gained confidence from economic data and earnings results in the latter part of the first half. Better corporate earnings...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Stocks’ Summer Bottom

    The gold miners’ stocks have drifted lower over the past month, slumping back to major support. This weakness has naturally intensified the bearish psychology engulfing this small contrarian sector, traders want nothing to do with it. Yet summers typically see gold and its miners’ stocks meander sideways to lower. These summer doldrums spawn the best seasonal buying opportunities of the year in gold stocks. Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, ...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Silver Tests Overnight Flash-Crash Lows

    Spot silver prices have slipped lower since the payrolls data this morning and are now testing (and rebounding) the overnight flash-crash lows as Japan opened… Spot Silver… The futures volume is considerably lower in this drop than the $475mm dump last night… Gold is also falling…...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Payrolls Bounce In June With Upward Revisions In April And May: Earnings Very Weak, May Revised Lower

    Initial Reaction Today’s establishment survey was a stronger than expected 222,000. Upward revisions added a net 47,000 jobs in April and May. In the household survey, employment fell by 233,000 in May and rose by 245,000 in June. The unemployment rate went up because the labor force rose more than employment. Despite the job increases, private earnings rose only 0.18 percent in June and that is from downward revisions in May. Year-over-Year, private earnings are up only 2.3%. Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report. BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance Nonfarm Payroll: +222,000...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Forecast For July 10 – 14

    EUR/USD corrected its previous gains and dropped within the range. What’s next? The upcoming week features a mix of trade, industrial output, and inflation figures. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. The ECB continues trying to balance the picture, but sometimes confuses markets. An ECB official said that tapering has not been discussed, sending the euro down. Later, the ECB meeting minutes showed that they had considered removing the easing bias, allowing for a recovery. German retail sales beat expectations while factory orders disappointed. PMIs were mostly positive. In t...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Analyst Says Amended Walgreens, Rite Aid Deal May Still Be Blocked

    Even though Walgreens (WBA) decided to buy almost half of Rite Aid’s (RAD) stores instead of purchasing the whole company, the Federal Trade Commission may still decide to block the deal, warned research firm Leerink Swann. The FTC staff has already prepared to oppose the transaction and could “want to flex its muscle” by doing so, according to the firm, which believes that the odds of the transaction closing “are at best 50/50.” MARKET CONCENTRATION: Walgreens asserted that the FTC may no longer care about the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, a measure of market concentration, but the agency does still care about the...
    On July 7, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Buckeye Partners: Why Dividend Investors Might Like This 7.8% Yielding MLP

    After a strong rally in 2016, the price of oil has declined again in 2017. The good news, is that the recent downturn has created high-yield opportunities among the 100+ publicly traded Master Limited Partnerships. For example, Buckeye Partners LP (BPL) sports a 7.8% dividend yield. It is one of just 416 stocks with a 5%+ dividend yield. Buckeye’s very high yield is thanks to a 10% drop in its share price over the past year, combined with a long track record of dividend growth. Buckeye has delivered quarterly cash distributions since the company was founded, in 1986. It is one of the highest-yielding Dividend Achievers, a group of stocks ...
    On July 7, 2017 / By